LITHUANIA TO INTERVENE ON GEORGIA, RUSSIA, UKRAINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000938 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 TAGS: UN PREL PGOV LT SUBJECT: LITHUANIA TO INTERVENE ON GEORGIA, RUSSIA, UKRAINE AT OCTOBER 16- 17 GAERC REF: SECSTATE 170214 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Rebecca Dunham for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) Summary. Lithuania's Foreign Minister Vaitiekunas intends to intervene on Georgia-Russia relations and Ukraine-EU relations at the October 16-17 GAERC. With Poland, the GOL may also act to block the new EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement that the Finnish Presidency is negotiating. End Summary. -------------- Key Lithuanian Positions -------------- ¶2. (C) We delivered ref A points on GAERC agenda items to Tomas Gulbinas, head of the MFA's Common Foreign and Security Policy Division October 10. Gulbinas told us that Vaitiekunas (who was in Tbilisi October 12) will call for EU involvement in resolving the Georgia-Russia conflict and is actively engaged in the drafting of Council Conclusions on the dispute. Vaitiekunas also intends to intervene to support an anticipated intervention from Poland about Ukraine-EU relations. On North Korea, Gulbinas pointed out that the MFA has posted on its website a condemnation of North Korea's test of a nuclear weapon (Ref B). Gulbinas also confirmed Lithuania's support for Guatemala over Venezuela for the United Nations Security Council spot. On ref A points about the Balkans, Sudan, and the Middle East, Gulbinas said that Lithuania broadly agrees with American positions, but has no substantive reply, does not intend to intervene in the GAERC, and will likely follow consensus in other EU fora. -------------- Georgia -------------- ¶3. (C) Lithuania's FM Vaitiekunas plans to press the Council to call Russia's retaliation against Georgia "disproportionate" and propose that the EU take an active role in the resolution of Georgian-Russian conflicts. These are two points that Lithuania has been unsuccessful at getting into the draft Council Conclusions on Georgia-Russia relations at the working group level. According to a marked-up draft that Gulbinas gave us, only Sweden, Latvia, Poland and another (illegible) country supported the statements. Gulbinas told us that the draft Council Conclusions -- even without these two points -- are contentious, with some member states wanting no Council Conclusions at all, some wanting Conclusions that call for a peaceful resolution but stop short of passing judgment on Russia's actions, and Lithuania's camp, which wants plainly to express support for Georgia. Lithuania has successfully won consensus to keep some of its statements in the current draft document: "The council urges the Russian Federation not to pursue measures targeting Georgians in the Russian Federation, and calls on both parties to act in a manner consistent with their international commitments and obligations." Lithuania has also pressured member states to keep the statement in the current draft urging respect for "Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Gulbinas added that the Council may not reach consensus on the Conclusions by next week's GAERC. -------------- Ukraine -------------- ¶4. (C) Vaitiekunas also intends to intervene in support of an anticipated Polish intervention urging closer EU-engagement with the Ukraine. Gulbinas said that Lithuania and Poland are encouraging redoubled engagement with Ukraine now that Yanukovych is PM. Gulbinas, who had been on an official visit to Ukraine the week before, said that Lithuania believes that Ukraine's leadership is responding more or less democratically to two conflicting trends in Ukrainian public opinion, one seeking Western integration and the other relying on the populist crony politics of the past. Lithuania's policy is to urge Europe not to isolate Ukraine and to help the leadership turn public opinion towards pro-West, pro-democracy forces. He added optimistically that Yanukovych's advisor told him that the PM had included a budget line for a NATO information campaign, in line with Yanukovych's promise that information about NATO should precede any referendum. -------------- Russia PCA -------------- VILNIUS 00000938 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) The FM also plans to raise, in informal discussions, the new EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement that the Finnish Presidency is currently negotiating. Gulbinas told us that the Finnish Presidency is trying to conclude the agreement to have as a deliverable at the November 24 EU-Russia Summit. Other member states -- especially Lithuania and Poland -- have deep reservations about how the agreement is shaping up. Lithuania wants the EU-Russia agreement to be a single undertaking that is mindful of Russia's unreliability as an energy supplier, the current situation in Georgia, and Russia's level of progress towards WTO membership. The new PCA should not stop short, he said, of requiring Russia to ratify the Energy Charter. Gulbinas said that Lithuania is the "troublemaker" in the EU on Russia issues, but that they with Poland may hold up consensus on the new PCA. KELLY