GHOR, AFGHANISTAN: A LITHUANIAN VIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000671 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB, SCA/A FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016 TAGS: PREL AF LH SUBJECT: GHOR, AFGHANISTAN: A LITHUANIAN VIEW REF: A. VILNIUS 437 B. VILNIUS 483 C. VILNIUS 487 D. VILNIUS 634 Classified By: Pol/Econ officer Traver Gudie for reasons 1.4 b,d. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lithuania's MFA representative to the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Ghor province, Afghanistan, Dainus Baublys, debriefed us on Lithuania's goals and challenges there. He told us that security was stable, as the PRT had good relations with the three local "warlords" who are (helpfully) separated by Ghor's inhospitable geography. Nevertheless, crime and drug trafficking were major concerns, he said. The PRT's priority is to reform the security sector, as corruption in the Afghan National Police, the Governor's office, and among judges and prosecutors stalls legitimate law enforcement efforts and undermines the rule of law. He reiterated Lithuania's request for the return of American civilian police advisors, and also asked us to lean on Ukraine to send a civilian contingent to the PRT. He intends to discuss the situation in depth at the upcoming PRT conference in Budapest, Hungary, July 20-21 (ref D). End Summary. -------------- LITHUANIA: SECURITY SITUATION IS STABLE -------------- ¶2. (C) Baublys just returned to Lithuania after a year in Afghanistan. He told us that the security situation in Ghor province was stable and that the PRT seldom met resistance during its patrols. Baublys attributed this in part to Ghor's inhospitable geography which kept tribes separate, and in part to the Lithuanians' good relations with the three "warlords" Zada, Murghabi, and Salaam. He said that the culture of corruption in the governor's office had set up a stable structure of kickback and profits from the drug trade to which all three groups had become accustomed. Although Baublys complained that the extended absence of the Governor has frozen decision-making and administration of the province, the Governor's authority effectively extended over the security structures and was responsible for the stable environment. ¶3. (C) Baublys commented that the warlords are reticent to surrender their weapons to the DIAG (Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups) program. Nearly all the weapons that the program receives are broken. -------------- ;DRUG TRAFFICKING ASCENDANT -------------- ¶4. (C) The drug production and trafficking situation in Ghor continues to worsen, according to Baublys. Baublys said that Ghor province already ranked fifth or sixth in poppy production in Afghanistan. He thinks that the situation will grow worse as law enforcement and counter-narcotics efforts increase in neighboring regions, especially Herat. Drug trafficking fuels the economy via corruption, he said, and this network of kickbacks is the backbone of Ghor's power structure as well. -------------- PRT'S PRIMARY CONCERN: SECURITY SECTOR REFORM -------------- ¶5. (C) The PRT civilian element's primary challenge is to prop up law enforcement. Baublys said that the PRT sought to move away from hearts-and-minds projects like building schools, which he said compete with other donors and confuse local populations as to what exactly the PRT is. The new focus is "rule-of-law institutions." The PRT, according to Baublys, set up weekly shuras with the governor, police officers, the judiciary, and, later, with the military prosecutor. As PRT representative, he frequently visited the local prison and routinely visited administrators, police chiefs and detention centers in the districts. Baublys said that there is political will among some law enforcement officials to implement the rule of law, but Lithuania still lacks the trust of the Afghan National Police. The Afghan Police, said Baublys, are reluctant to share information with the PRT. Baublys stressed the need for infrastructure development, such as buildings for rule-of-law institutions and roads to support law enforcement operations, especially outside of Chaghcharan. VILNIUS 00000671 002 OF 002 -------------- LITHUANIA SEEKING POLICE MENTORS -------------- ¶6. (C) Baublys reiterated Lithuania's oft-repeated request for the return of two American police mentors who were working with the PRT until February 2005 (ref A). (Note: Ministry of Defense officials also raised this issue during the Bilateral Working Group meetings July 13 -- septel.) He said that greater attention to police reform was critical to the success of the PRT's goals, and the American police mentors had been particularity good with their Afghan counterparts. He also asked, although noting that he had no instructions to do so, if the USG could lean on Ukraine to send a civilian contingent to the PRT, which Lithuanian and Ukrainian officials have recently discussed (ref B). -------------- DISTRUST OF KARZAI, KABUL -------------- ¶7. (C) According to Baublys, local administrators and the population distrust Karzai and the Kabul administration. In part, he blames this on the fact that Ghor does not receive the attention that other parts of Afghanistan do. UNOPS left after the 2005 elections. The Afghan National Army deployed in Ghor only for a brief period before elections. (Note: Although Baublys noted that the official GOL position was to seek the return of the Afghan National Army, he added that its return may be complicated by turf wars with the Afghan Police who currently operate the province's many roadblocks, and thus profit from drug trafficking.) The province is, according to Baublys, low on Kabul's agenda. Baublys described similar difficulties in working with NGOs in Ghor. Often the head offices of NGOs are located in other provinces and have other priorities. Two NGOs have not come back to Ghor this year, and others have significantly scaled back their activities. -------------- ON CAVEATS -------------- ¶8. (C) Although the Ministry of Defense is the primary policy maker with respect to Lithuania's caveats in Afghanistan, Baublys volunteered his opinion on Lithuania's two caveats, which state that Lithuania will not operate outside of Ghor province and will not engage in counternarcotics operations without instructions from the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense (ref C). Baublys stated that Ghor province's levels of poppy production were high enough that any instructions to actively pursue a counternarcotics strategy would exceed the capacity of Lithuania's military contingent in Ghor. In his view, the caveat protects the Lithuanians from the possibility that their Italian command would order them to act beyond their capacity in a counternarcotics operation. As for the caveat that the PRT operate only in Ghor, he said that he understood the caveat to be completely based on Lithuania's capabilities, not willingness. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Baublys' primary job in Afghanistan was to focus on law enforcement and corruption in rule of law institutions, so it is not surprising that he found corruption and drug trafficking a major threat to the success of the PRT's goals. Nonetheless, he paints a slightly dimmer picture than Ministry of Defense officials, who prefer to highlight Ghor's province's relatively quiet security situation. KELLY