LITHUANIAN COALITION LOSES ITS MAJORITY, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000376 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIAN COALITION LOSES ITS MAJORITY, BUT LIKELY TO RETAIN POWER REF: REF A: VILNIUS 356 REF B: VILNIUS 367 Classified By: Pol/econ officer Traver Gudie for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A member of Lithuania's ruling coalition, Kazys Bobelis, withdrew from his party April 20, depriving the coalition government of a clear majority in the Parliament. This move comes nine days after the parliament removed its speaker, prompting the speaker's Nw Union (Social Liberals) party to exit the ruling coalition, thus reducing the coalition's majority to a narrow 71 of 141 seats and (presumably) vacating two ministerial posts (reftels). Bobelis' withdrawal is not the result of a concerted effort by opposition parties to pull members from the coalition, and coalition MPs are (rightly) confident that the coalition parties will remain in power. The move nonetheless complicates the negotiations over vacant ministerial posts for foreign affairs and labor, and may affect horse-trading over the newly vacant chairs of four parliamentary committees (including NATO and Ethics),as the coalition parties negotiate with individual MPs and even other parties about joining the would-be majority. END SUMMARY. Bobelis' withdrawal is a surprise to everyone -------------- - ¶2. (C) Bobelis, a Lithuanian-American urologist who spends much of his time in Florida, announced April 27 his intention to withdraw from the National Farmers Union and join the Liberal Democrats, an opposition party led by the impeached president Rolandas Paksas. Explaining his withdrawal to the press, Bobelis criticized his party and the ruling coalition as ineffective and intrigue-driven. A National Farmer's Union Elder publicly characterized Bobelis's motivations differently, saying that he left after the party declined to seek the Foreign Minister's post, long an (unrealistic) aspiration of Bobelis. Laima Mogeniene, a member of the National Farmer's Union parliamentary caucus, told us that Bobelis's withdrawal came as a surprise. Mogeniene said that the 83-year-old Bobelis had earlier told his then-party colleagues that he intended to leave parliament to make way for another party member from the party list. Coalition confident it will retain power -------------- ¶3. (C) MPs from the ruling coalition have told us that they are confident that Bobelis' move does not threaten the coalition's rule, telling us that they are working to attract minority MPs or even a fourth party to the coalition. Algirdas Paleckis, of the ruling Social Democratic Party, told us that the coalition parties are negotiating with several opposition MPs as well as other parties. Asked about deals with the Social Liberals (who just left the coalition), or the Liberal Democrats, Paleckis said, "all options are open." Social Democrat Juozas Olekas assured journalists April 20 that the coalition will be able to defend its government and legislative initiatives relying on the votes of opposition members and the parliament's six unaffiliated members. An influential member of the opposition from the Conservatives, Rasa Jukneviciene, privately agreed that the coalition would be able to attract another party or individual members to the coalition government, and that, in any case, there was little chance of unity among the opposition. She told us that coalition representatives were negotiating with various other opposition parties: the Liberal and Center Union, the Liberal Movement, and the Liberal Democrats. Horse-trading continues, composition of cabinet uncertain -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The three-party coalition will continue negotiations for the vacant posts of the foreign affairs and labor ministers, previously held by the Social Liberals. Hoping to remain Labor minister, the popular politician Vilija Blinkeviciute has withdrawn her resignation, which she had given to the PM following her party's withdrawal from the coalition. The press reports that the three coalition parties nevertheless agree that she is unlikely to continue in the post. The Labor Party has declared that it will claim the rights to both posts and will propose candidates to fill them. However, the National Farmer's Union implied to the press that the Social Democrats had promised their party the Labor minister's post. Several MPs from various parties told us that the composition of the cabinet remains uncertain. Comment: Ruling parties likely to retain power -------------- -- ¶5. (C) This is not the last act in Lithuania's current VILNIUS 00000376 002 OF 002 political drama. While loss of majority and the coalition's attempt to attract members from the opposition may affect the current horse-trading in parliament, it will probably not upset the tripartite coalition,s rule. KELLY