ELECTION EVE DUSTUP IN LITHUANIA-BELARUS RELATIONS

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000278 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EUR/NB AND EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV BO LH SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE DUSTUP IN LITHUANIA-BELARUS RELATIONS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Lithuanian-Belarusian relations are tense on the eve of the March 19 elections. The decision by the Minsk regime to deny visas to six Lithuanian MPs who planned to observe the elections led Parliament to pass a resolution condemning the Lukashenko government. The Lithuanian Foreign Minister summoned the Belarusian Charge to protest the visa refusals, and publicly commented harshly on the Belarusian government's actions. Lithuanian national television will host an election night event and a follow-up session on March 20 to cover election developments. In the coming days, we expect a high level of anxiety and attention here focusing on Belarus. END SUMMARY. -------------- MPs Refused Entry -------------- ¶2. (U) The decision by the Belarusian government March 16 to deny visas to six Lithuanian parliamentary would-be election observers set off a round of recriminations and guaranteed the passage of a previously-postponed parliamentary resolution on Belarus. (Ten MPs did receive visas and, after much discussion, decided to go to Belarus despite their displeasure about the treatment of their colleagues.) The resolution, which included criticism of the Minsk regime's actions during the campaign, had languished for days because of the dilatory tactics of Social Democrats and Labor Party members, who favored a post-election release. But when the Belarusians denied visas to one MP from each of these parties, they resolved to respond. ¶3. (SBU) Several of the Parliamentarians whom the Belarusians denied are firebrand anti-Lukashenko Conservative Party MPs. One of them, Rasa Jukneviciene, told us privately that the group expected denials, especially after the official newspaper of the Belarus Ministry of Defense published a scathing piece about one of proposed observers, Conservative MP Emanuelis Zingeris. ¶4. (U) Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis, speaking to Parliament March 16, called the visa decision "scandalous" and promised a harsh reaction. He then summoned Belarusian Charge Vladimir Voronkovich to the MFA and delivered a note protesting the denials. -------------- Lithuanian Election-Day Observers -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Lithuania sent 42 observers to the ODIHR mission. Four members of Lithuania's Central Electoral Committee also arrived in Belarus on March 16. The ten MPs who did receive visas will leave for Belarus on March 17. Lithuania also planned to send an unspecified number of observers on a bilateral basis. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The GOL has invested much effort and resources to support pro-democracy forces in Belarus. This has not gone unnoticed by the Minsk regime, with the visa denials following accusations two weeks ago by Lukashenko that the GOL was helping to organize a coup in Belarus. Lithuanian national television will host an election-night event March 19 for government leaders, NGOs, and the media, which the Ambassador will attend. We expect tensions to be high as Lithuania contemplates the possibility that relations with its problematic neighbor may get even worse after the elections. MULL