LITHUANIA'S AI PREPAREDNESS: IS FOUR PERCENT ENOUGH?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000223

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NB, EUR/PGI, AND OES/IHA
WARSAW FOR FAS (CRUSH) AND (EPORTER)

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO AMED EAGR SOCI PGOV KFLU LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA'S AI PREPAREDNESS: IS FOUR PERCENT ENOUGH?

REF: 05 Vilnius 1239


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The GOL continues to plan for the arrival of
avian influenza (AI) virus in Lithuania, but budgetary constraints
may hinder preparations, particularly the acquisition of antiviral
medication. The Government issued orders requiring owners to
sequester domestic birds indoors and prohibiting routine scientific
work that involves handling wild birds. The GOL currently has
stockpiles of antiviral medication to treat two percent of the
population and expects to double this stockpile before the end of
March, falling short of its goal of 30 percent coverage. It has not
identified funds that will allow health authorities to purchase
additional antiviral medication. The Defense Ministry has also
confirmed publicly that, in the event of an outbreak, it expects to
assist other agencies to deal with contamination and to restrict
movement of people. END SUMMARY.

NO AI YET
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2. (U) The National Veterinary Laboratory (NVL) has examined 204
dead birds found in Lithuania since the beginning of January, but
has not yet identified any cases of AI. The State Food and
Veterinary Service (SFVS) continues to urge people to inform SFVS if
they find dead birds and to avoid contact with the animals.
Lithuania does not have the capability to subtype viruses. If the
NVL identifies a virus that it believes to be H5N1, it will need to
send a sample to an EU reference laboratory, most likely in Germany,
for confirmation.

NEW RESTRICTIONS ON HANDLING FOWL
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3. (U) The confirmation of the H5N1 virus in two dead swans found on
the northern German island of Rugen in the Baltic Sea prompted the
GOL to issue two orders on February 20, 2006:

-- The State Food and Veterinary Service imposed a ban on keeping
birds outdoors. This ban expires on May 20. Those who flout the
ban face a fine of up to LTL 5,000 (USD 1,800) and/or confiscation
of birds.

-- The Environment Ministry imposed a ban on banding birds for
identification purposes. The Ministry imposed this preventive
measure to limit human contact with birds that may have come into
contact with H5N1 during their annual migration. This ban expires
on June 1.

ONLY ENOUGH MEDICINE FOR A FEW
--------------


4. (SBU) The GOL's emergency action plan for pandemic influenza
calls on the Ministry of Health to stock enough antiviral medication
to treat 30 percent of the population The Health Emergency Situation
Center (HESC) has stockpiled enough of the antiviral medication
Remantadin to treat approximately two percent of Lithuania's
population of about 3.4 million. The HESC has also ordered a
roughly equivalent amount of Tamiflu, which should arrive before the
end of March.


5. (SBU). HESC Deputy Chief Egle Burbiene told us on February 23
that the Government allocated for 2006 LTL 1 million (USD 360,0000)
for antiviral drugs, has already spent these funds, and will not be
able to buy additional medicine without supplemental funding.
Burbiene noted that the GOL's action plan does not specify a target
date for acquiring large stocks of medicine and the HESC was,
therefore, not officially behind schedule. Burbiene told us that
she is satisfied with the size of the current stockpile and
confident that the HESC will be able to get both the funding and
medicine when it decides it is necessary to do so.


6. (SBU) Burbiene said that the HESC does not have a clearly defined
set of tripwires that will automatically trigger the HESC to request
additional funding for antiviral medication. However, she
identified for us a series of tripwire-like criteria that she said
will cause HESC to consider making such a request:

-- avian flu cases appear in Lithuania or neighboring countries;
-- massive outbreaks in other European countries appear as spring
approaches;
-- the WHO declares a level IV pandemic threat for Lithuania
(currently at level III); or
-- the EU directs member states to take additional actions.

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE ASSURES COOPERATION, ASSISTANCE
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Defense Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, in an interview on
February 21, told reporters that Lithuanian armed forces will assist
the country's other services to help contain any AI outbreak.
Kirkilas said that, in the event of an outbreak, troops would help
collect and dispose of dead birds and secure the outbreak area. He
also said that soldiers have been equipped with protective gear,
including protective suits, masks, and disinfection equipment.

NO PLANS FOR BIRD VACCINATIONS
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8. (U) SFVS Deputy Director Darius Remeika told us on February 27
the GOL currently has no plans to vaccinate birds. He added,
however, that the SFVS may reconsider this position if the AI
situation in Europe worsens or if the EU issues directives on the
matter. SFVS Director Kazimieras Lukauskas said on television last
week that the SFVS has already identified several companies that can
provide the vaccine. He also said that, if the GOL decides to
allocate funds for poultry vaccinations, it will not disclose the
amount of the authorization to avoid manipulation of the vaccine's
market price.
COMMENT
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9. (SBU) The GOL continues to take the AI threat seriously, and the
HESC and SFVS are well versed on the latest AI developments. We
have no way to assess the adequacy of the Government stockpiles of
medication, but note that, to date, Lithuania is far from reaching
its own goals for preparedness to protect the population at large
from a disease that is probably not far at all from its borders.

KELLY