LITHUANIA'S AI PREPAREDNESS: IS FOUR PERCENT ENOUGH?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000223 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB, EUR/PGI, AND OES/IHA WARSAW FOR FAS (CRUSH) AND (EPORTER) SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO AMED EAGR SOCI PGOV KFLU LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIA'S AI PREPAREDNESS: IS FOUR PERCENT ENOUGH? REF: 05 Vilnius 1239 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The GOL continues to plan for the arrival of avian influenza (AI) virus in Lithuania, but budgetary constraints may hinder preparations, particularly the acquisition of antiviral medication. The Government issued orders requiring owners to sequester domestic birds indoors and prohibiting routine scientific work that involves handling wild birds. The GOL currently has stockpiles of antiviral medication to treat two percent of the population and expects to double this stockpile before the end of March, falling short of its goal of 30 percent coverage. It has not identified funds that will allow health authorities to purchase additional antiviral medication. The Defense Ministry has also confirmed publicly that, in the event of an outbreak, it expects to assist other agencies to deal with contamination and to restrict movement of people. END SUMMARY. NO AI YET -------------- ¶2. (U) The National Veterinary Laboratory (NVL) has examined 204 dead birds found in Lithuania since the beginning of January, but has not yet identified any cases of AI. The State Food and Veterinary Service (SFVS) continues to urge people to inform SFVS if they find dead birds and to avoid contact with the animals. Lithuania does not have the capability to subtype viruses. If the NVL identifies a virus that it believes to be H5N1, it will need to send a sample to an EU reference laboratory, most likely in Germany, for confirmation. NEW RESTRICTIONS ON HANDLING FOWL -------------- ¶3. (U) The confirmation of the H5N1 virus in two dead swans found on the northern German island of Rugen in the Baltic Sea prompted the GOL to issue two orders on February 20, 2006: -- The State Food and Veterinary Service imposed a ban on keeping birds outdoors. This ban expires on May 20. Those who flout the ban face a fine of up to LTL 5,000 (USD 1,800) and/or confiscation of birds. -- The Environment Ministry imposed a ban on banding birds for identification purposes. The Ministry imposed this preventive measure to limit human contact with birds that may have come into contact with H5N1 during their annual migration. This ban expires on June 1. ONLY ENOUGH MEDICINE FOR A FEW -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GOL's emergency action plan for pandemic influenza calls on the Ministry of Health to stock enough antiviral medication to treat 30 percent of the population The Health Emergency Situation Center (HESC) has stockpiled enough of the antiviral medication Remantadin to treat approximately two percent of Lithuania's population of about 3.4 million. The HESC has also ordered a roughly equivalent amount of Tamiflu, which should arrive before the end of March. ¶5. (SBU). HESC Deputy Chief Egle Burbiene told us on February 23 that the Government allocated for 2006 LTL 1 million (USD 360,0000) for antiviral drugs, has already spent these funds, and will not be able to buy additional medicine without supplemental funding. Burbiene noted that the GOL's action plan does not specify a target date for acquiring large stocks of medicine and the HESC was, therefore, not officially behind schedule. Burbiene told us that she is satisfied with the size of the current stockpile and confident that the HESC will be able to get both the funding and medicine when it decides it is necessary to do so. ¶6. (SBU) Burbiene said that the HESC does not have a clearly defined set of tripwires that will automatically trigger the HESC to request additional funding for antiviral medication. However, she identified for us a series of tripwire-like criteria that she said will cause HESC to consider making such a request: -- avian flu cases appear in Lithuania or neighboring countries; -- massive outbreaks in other European countries appear as spring approaches; -- the WHO declares a level IV pandemic threat for Lithuania (currently at level III); or -- the EU directs member states to take additional actions. MINISTRY OF DEFENSE ASSURES COOPERATION, ASSISTANCE -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Defense Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, in an interview on February 21, told reporters that Lithuanian armed forces will assist the country's other services to help contain any AI outbreak. Kirkilas said that, in the event of an outbreak, troops would help collect and dispose of dead birds and secure the outbreak area. He also said that soldiers have been equipped with protective gear, including protective suits, masks, and disinfection equipment. NO PLANS FOR BIRD VACCINATIONS -------------- ¶8. (U) SFVS Deputy Director Darius Remeika told us on February 27 the GOL currently has no plans to vaccinate birds. He added, however, that the SFVS may reconsider this position if the AI situation in Europe worsens or if the EU issues directives on the matter. SFVS Director Kazimieras Lukauskas said on television last week that the SFVS has already identified several companies that can provide the vaccine. He also said that, if the GOL decides to allocate funds for poultry vaccinations, it will not disclose the amount of the authorization to avoid manipulation of the vaccine's market price. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The GOL continues to take the AI threat seriously, and the HESC and SFVS are well versed on the latest AI developments. We have no way to assess the adequacy of the Government stockpiles of medication, but note that, to date, Lithuania is far from reaching its own goals for preparedness to protect the population at large from a disease that is probably not far at all from its borders. KELLY