LITHUANIAN FOREIGN POLICY GURU LANDS ON HIS FEET

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 001050 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIAN FOREIGN POLICY GURU LANDS ON HIS FEET AS PM'S ADVISOR REF: VILNIUS 000922 Classified By: Political/Economic Section Chief Rebecca Dunham for reas ons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Albinas Januska was appointed advisor to Prime Minister Kirkilas on November 20, ending weeks of speculation following his abrupt resignation as Undersecretary at MFA (reftel). Although he remains under a cloud of allegations, Januska appears likely to weather the storm. We expect him to be a very influential member of the PM's team, who may even help position Kirkilas to run for President. End Summary. -------------- Scandal and counter-scandal -------------- ¶2. (U) Albinas Januska resigned as MFA Under Secretary in September amid a storm of controversy (reftel). Since that time, Parliament's National Security and Defense Committee undertook an investigation to look into the circumstances surrounding the death of Vytautas Pociunas, a Lithuanian State Security Officer who died in Belarus on September 28. The committee's final report is due on December 1. ¶3. (C) The investigation has been highly politicized, with Conservative MPs taking the lead in criticizing the State Security Department (VSD) and Januska. Januska, although perfectly capable of stirring up controversy on his own, was in this case caught up in a larger debate between the Homeland Union (Conservative) Party and VSD. The Conservatives pushed for an investigation into the mysterious circumstances surrounding Pociunas's death, and the investigation led to questions about why Pociunas had been assigned to Belarus in the first place (an assignment over which Januska allegedly had influence). The investigation broadened into a wider look at VSD, including whether it had information showing inappropriate ties between government officials (including Januska) and business groups. Simultaneously, the Conservatives became embroiled in another scandal involving allegations that some VSD officials had leaked information about ongoing corruption investigations to Conservative MPs. -------------- Januska denies all -------------- ¶4. (U) Januska testified before the parliamentary committee twice. He breezily dismissed claims that he has inappropriate ties to the Gazprom-connected gas company Dujotekana, saying, "I am not dependent on gas, because I warm up (at home) with wood and electricity." He warned Committee members that Lithuania suffers from "the influence of cucumbers and sausages from Kedainiai," an open reference to former Labor Party leader Viktor Uspackich, who once traded in these commodities and is currently in self-imposed exile in Moscow, avoiding charges of fraud in his party's financing. Reflecting his self-image as a patriot fighting off Russian influence, he also warned of the existence of "a group of people, who are directed from the East, a group of UFOs, who are making influence from the Cosmos" adding elliptically that "there also exists a decreasing group of persons, who are trying to rationally analyze the situation and to objectively evaluate what is happening." -------------- -------------- Appointment and future role: "Deep issues" and king maker? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Januska's appointment as PM Kirkilas's advisor was announced on November 20, despite the ongoing parliamentary investigation. (On November 21, the Constitutional Court ruled that parliamentary commissions do not have the authority to examine personnel decisions by heads of departments, which would include the decision to assign Pociunas to Belarus. The ruling is still being parsed by lawyers, but we believe this would mean that, whatever Januska's role in the assignment, it should not be covered in the investigation's findings.) Both the PM and President Adamkus have been supportive of Januska throughout. President Adamkus, for whom Januska worked from 1998 to 2002, said Januska is competent and that he sees no relation between the VSD investigation and Januska. The Prime Minister said that if the investigation finds that Januska did something wrong, then "we will behave accordingly, but I don't think that it will be so." ¶6. (C) In his new capacity Januska will focus on strategic issues. Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor Darius Pranskevicius told us November 21 that Januska is already on board and working hard. Januska will work on "deep issues," such as how to engage Russia and energy policy. He will also work on "special projects" and fast-developing crises. Day-to-day foreign policy issues (i.e., foreign trip planning, briefing memos, and talking point management) will continue to fall to Pranskevicius. ¶7. (C) MFA Under Secretary Oskaras Jusys told us that the appointment to the PM's staff was Januska's plan along; he "plans everything three or four steps in advance." He said that Januska will become PM Kirkilas's political advisor and that his strategic skills and conatcts across the political elite make him the best hope for the minority government to remain in power through next year. Jusys, who has known Januska since the days of the first Lithuanian Parliament, recalled that Januska was one of the key architects of Adamkus's first election. He speculated that, if the coming year goes well, Kirkilas will position himself to run for President under Januska's tutelage. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Albinas Januska's continuing influence in Lithuanian politics cannot be overstated. In addition to being a cunning strategist, he is extraordinarily well-connected among Lithuania's political class. (Many in the Foreign Ministry attribute Foreign Minister Petras Vaitiekunas's appointment to Januska himself.) We expect him to make good use of his unrivaled connections in the MFA and elsewhere to forge GOL policy. It is also true, however, that Januska, conspiratorial and asocial, has made some enemies along the way. His presence will affect the PM's relations with Parliament, and especially with the Conservative Party, on whose support PM Kirkilas's minority coalition depends. CLOUD