CODEL WEXLER'S DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN WITH AUSTRIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L VIENNA 000655 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR, EUR/ERA, EUR/PGI, EUR/AGS, NEA, NEA/NGA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2016 TAGS: PREL ETTC IR AU IAEA EUN SUBJECT: CODEL WEXLER'S DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN WITH AUSTRIAN CHANCELLERY Classified By: DCM SCOTT KILNER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d) ¶1. (C) Congressman Robert Wexler (D-Florida) and Professional Staff Member Jonathan Katz, accompanied by DCM and PolOff, met with Chancellor Schuessel's foreign policy adviser Hans Peter Manz on February 22. Manz gave his views on next steps in reaction to Iran's actions regarding its nuclear program. While predicting that Iran would continue to draw out the nuclear negotiations as long as possible ) citing recent history as well as traditional Iranian skill at negotiating ) Manz nevertheless predicted that the matter would progress to the UN Security Council in March. He questioned, however, the amount of effective action that would then result. Manz cautioned that the West must not apply its usual way of thinking in analyzing Iranian political affairs. Outside of some elements in the capital, he maintained, the regime is mostly popular, and we should not expect a "public uprising" against the government if sanctions weaken the economy. ¶2. (C) Manz offered that prospects for eventual European agreement to sanctions on Iran would depend on how the sanctions were structured. He favored a limited regime of sanctions that targeted the decisionmakers rather than the population, although he confessed that he had no clear concept on how to achieve that. Manz opined that broad sanctions on trade with Iran would not work, pointing to Iran's long borders and coastline. Targeting of Iran's refined oil imports was less far-fetched, but the question would be how to compensate for the almost-certain Iranian retaliation in blocking raw oil exports. While it is conceivable to make up for Iranian oil exports for a limited time, the cooperation of the other major oil exporters will be vital to making up the difference. Manz also pointed out the humanitarian impact of the loss of oil revenue. Congressman Wexler did not have an opportunity to clear this message before departure. McCaw