POPE BENEDICT XVI'S VISIT TO TURKEY - THE VIEW FROM ROME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VATICAN 000245 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CLASSIFICATION E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016 TAGS: PREL VT SUBJECT: POPE BENEDICT XVI'S VISIT TO TURKEY - THE VIEW FROM ROME REF: (A) VATICAN 232, (B) VATICAN 209, (C) VATICAN 207 AND PREVIOUS CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CHRISTOPHER SANDROLINI, REASON VATICAN 00000245 001.3 OF 002 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The pope's visit to Turkey comes at a delicate time for both parties, something unforeseen when the visit was originally conceived over a year ago. Given high security concerns, the recent controversy over the pope's Regensburg remarks (reftels),and the pope's stance against Turkish entry into the EU (expressed prior to becoming pope) on the one hand; and the pope's strong views on religious freedom, the need for Islam to reform itself, and the Christian roots of Europe on the other, many will be satisfied if the visit simply occurs without incident. Vatican insiders predict that Benedict will keep his remarks low-key and emollient, but he may deliver a somewhat stronger message in private. End summary. ¶2. (C) Pope Benedict XVI's trip to Turkey this week has been long anticipated. The pope had hoped to go a year ago, but Turkish authorities preferred that it be postponed. Had it occurred as planned last year, the trip would have been focused entirely on religion; as it stands now it will include one day dedicated to official events -- including a meeting with Ali Barkadoglu, a strong critic of the pope's Regensburg remarks -- and three days for religious purposes. With the event finally imminent, we offer a look from Rome in anticipation. -------------- Apprehension -------------- ¶3. (C) No one at the Vatican can help being a little nervous about potential violence. Nevertheless, Vatican officials have expressed no serious concern to us about the pope's safety. From deputy foreign minister Parolin on down, they are confident the Turkish government will lock things down and keep the pontiff safe. (The Turkish DCM here told us there would be literally thousands of snipers in each city.) The pope's public appearances and mobility are limited, so there won't be a lot of opportunity for terrorists. There may also be few people on the streets, though this will make for less-than-desirable optics for a papal trip. We have heard nevertheless that one Turkish cleric involved in the visit has been getting visibly anxious. -------------- Expectations -------------- ¶4. (C) Some Vatican officials we spoke to said they wished this trip had never been planned, given the current climate between the Vatican and the Muslim world. After Benedict's Regensburg speech, however, and the threats and violence coming out of the Muslim world, the pope couldn't back out of the trip. On one level, Holy See officials are hoping the trip will come and go as fast as possible -- the sooner they are back safe and sound in Rome, the better. But others see the Turkey trip as another opportunity for the pope to stand up to religiously inspired terrorism emanating from the Muslim world, and make further points on the need for reciprocity with regard to religious liberty. One foreign ministry contact made this point to visiting deputy national security advisor Abrams November 26. -------------- Message -------------- ¶5. (C) The trip was originally conceived as an ecumenical voyage to build on the already-strong relations between Benedict XVI and his closest ally in the Orthodox world, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew. (Even the nomenclature of the two can be problematic: Turks have objected to the term "Ecumenical Patriarch" despite its historic aspect, viewing it as grandiose and even somewhat threatening, while Benedict's decision to quietly drop the use of his title as "Patriarch of the West" has been interpreted by some as implying a desire to be, in fact, patriarch of all.) In addition to the focus on relations with the Orthodox, there was always going to be some element of the program focused on Islam. Now, however, the pope will have to address the Islam-Christian issue more prominently, and every word he says will be analyzed three and four times. Vatican officials say Benedict will be careful not to drop a match on the already flammable atmosphere in Turkey. One prominent MFA source told us that they were going to check his speeches two or three times to make sure that what the people hear is what the pope really wants to say. All the same, Benedict will make some strong points on the obligation of the Muslim world, and Turkey in particular, to honor freedom of worship for all peoples in their countries. One opportunity for this will occur when the pope honors the memory of Italian missionary Father Andrea Santoro, who was killed by a Muslim teenager in Turkey last February. -------------- Goals VATICAN 00000245 002.3 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) Some will consider the trip a success if it concludes without violence or major controversy. That's why most officials aren't upset that the pope will (probably not meet the prime minister (though a last-minute airport meeting may yet happen). The fewer opportunities for problems, the better. The fact that Benedict will visit the famous Blue Mosque -- his first such visit as pope, and marking only the second papal mosque visit in history -- may help rebuild his appeal to Muslims. Others in the Holy See, however, want the pope to make a further forceful statement about the obligations in today's world of Muslims, their leaders, and their governments. Those who had high hopes for ecumenical progress may yet be satisfied. The gesture the pope is making by traveling to Istanbul on a key feast day for the Orthodox is significant no matter what the current circumstances of the trip. A strong stand for religious freedom by the pope touches on important concerns for the Orthodox as well, who have several outstanding religious freedom issues with the Turkish government. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Turkish DCM Deniz Kilicer told us Turkey has no high expectations, nor any hope of changing pope's views (known to be rather negative) on Turkey's European aspirations. She noted that while there is no historic anti-Catholic feeling in Turkey, Benedict himself is unpopular. In this sense, an uneventful visit is probably the best outcome. The visit does take Benedict somewhat out of his more familiar ambit, marking his first official trip outside Europe and to a country where he cannot expect a warm public welcome for his views on the Christian roots of Europe, or against "secular" values. Our contacts emphasize that the pope is well aware of the need to tread softly in public, but no one doubts the strength of his convictions; thus he may choose to use his private meetings to raise sensitive subjects -- particularly religious freedom -- more firmly. ¶8. (C) On other subjects, Kilicer also noted that following the pope's visit Turkey will make a "significant" change regarding Armenia -- probably liberalizing laws forbidding mention of genocide -- and said that if the EU delivers the expected bad news to Turkey regarding its accession, Ankara may begin to explore other options such as a new regional forum in which it could participate. Such a forum could include Russia, Central Asian countries, Iran, and perhaps Pakistan and Japan. SANDROLINI