VATICAN LOOKS AHEAD AFTER REGENSBURG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VATICAN 000232 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/WE LARREA; DRL/IRF HEWETT E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2031 TAGS: PTER SOCI PHUM KIRF VT SUBJECT: VATICAN LOOKS AHEAD AFTER REGENSBURG REF: A. VATICAN 201, ET AL. ¶B. VATICAN 206 ¶C. VATICAN 207 ¶D. VATICAN 204 ET AL. VATICAN 00000232 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Peter Martin, Pol/Econ Chief, Vatican, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) With some lingering reverberations from the Muslim world, the dust has settled in the Vatican following the controversial speech by Pope Benedict XVI in Regensburg, Germany on September 12. As the Holy See takes stock of what happened, this cable seeks to answer the key questions on Regensburg with the perspective of several weeks' time. ¶2. (C) When he took the podium in Regensburg, Benedict did not envisage the extent of the firestorm that was about to erupt in the Muslim world, but he firmly intended to engage Islam and challenge Muslims on the issue of religiously-inspired violence. In the end, many Vatican officials have told us they are pleased that the pope put the issue squarely on the table. The pope never apologized for using the offending quotation, and even as he made several gestures of reconciliation to Muslims after the speech, he stood by his message. Benedict's speech to a special convocation of ambassadors from Muslim countries following Regensburg wasn't backtracking; it emphasized the continuity of Catholic thought on Islam since the Second Vatican Council, and sought to underscore the current pontiff's continuity with John Paul II. The pope quoted some of his predecessor's toughest words on the need for reciprocity from the Muslim world on religious freedom and violence - not a common theme for John Paul. Benedict is not likely to change course from his own emphasis on reciprocity, and is unlikely to rely more on policy advisors in the wake of Regensburg, though he will surely seek to avoid flare-ups of this magnitude. A lingering question at the Vatican regards leadership on religious dialogue issues within the Vatican Curia. Meanwhile, Pope Benedict will face his first big post-Regensburg test when he travels to Turkey at the end of November. A trip that was meant to focus primarily on Catholic-Orthodox relations has seen its subtext become the headline. End Summary. -------------- What did the Pope Intend? -------------- ¶3. (C) As Post has reported previously, Benedict XVI has been taking a harder line towards Islam than his predecessor did, emphasizing reciprocity between the Islamic world and the West on religious freedom issues, and a zero-tolerance attitude towards religiously-inspired violence. In this sense, Regensburg didn't come out of the blue. The pope's speech focused first of all on Europe, and was a call to dialogue between the West and Islam. But Benedict also meant to be provocative with the offending quote - challenging the Islamic world to face the violence that is invoked in its name. ¶4. (C) While he wanted to stimulate debate and reaction, the pope certainly did not intend to spark the violence that ensued. As one top official in the Holy See's MFA equivalent told us, "If he had thought ahead of time that the reaction was going to be like this, I would like to think we would have gotten a warning so we could have been ready for it." Further, no pope wants to go to the extraordinary steps Benedict took after the event to calm the storm. Papal statements after the fact were more conciliatory than is customary. Benedict's convocation of ambassadors from Muslim countries, and subsequent publication of the Regensburg text with an explanatory footnote were also unusual moves. ¶5. (C) Still, in order to understand the Vatican's mindset and the way top officials see the way ahead, one cannot lose sight of the fact that the pope never actually apologized. VATICAN 00000232 002.2 OF 003 Further, while he distanced himself from the offending quotation, he did not retract it. As noted previously (ref c), Benedict's speech to Muslim ambassadors emphasized the continuity of Catholic thought on Islam since the Second Vatican Council, and sought to emphasize his continuity with John Paul II. Indeed, the pope quoted some of his predecessor's toughest words on reciprocity - a brilliant move, given that some of his critics were comparing him unfavorably with John Paul in his tougher stance on Islam. With the dust mostly settled now (a few reports of criticism and violence in the Muslim world continue to surface, including a recent attempt by "Islamic extremists" to hack into the Vatican website),some Vatican officials still criticize the Regensburg speech. Many, however, are pleased that Benedict put the issue squarely on the table. One top official told us that in the end he saw it as "providential" that the pope had "put his finger right on these significant issues." From the working level to the upper echelons, many officials stand squarely behind Benedict's belief that dialogue is meaningless without straight talk - and this, they say, was a good example of straight talk. As one prominent cardinal told the Ambassador, the pope "may not have envisioned exactly what would happen after the speech, but there are a lot of people around here who are glad that he said what he said." Others have opined that the violence reaction from some Muslims proved the very point the pope was making (see also ref b). -------------- -------------- Will Regensburg Change the Way Benedict Operates? -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) After Regensburg, some in the Vatican have called for the pope to rely more on his advisors to clear and edit his speeches. It is unlikely that he will do so. Sources tell us that several people close to the pope had seen the Regensburg speech before the pope delivered it, and some foresaw problems. But the people who saw the speech were not really clearing it for content. This pope doesn't have anyone close to him in that role, and the Vatican bureaucracy doesn't make it easy for someone outside the inner circle, however knowledgeable, to flag potential trouble. It seems that no one approached the pope directly and told him that the quotation could create an issue. Former Press Office Director Joaquin Navarro-Valls would likely have done so with John Paul, but his successor, Fr. Federico Lombardi, doesn't see that as his role. Even after Regensburg, it is unclear if anyone close to the pope will take on a more aggressive role on substantive matters. It remains to be seen if someone like new FM equivalent Dominique Mamberti can break into the inner circle and take on such a role. ¶7. (C) Others have commented after Regensburg that the pope should rely more on the trained diplomats within the Vatican Curia. The Holy See MFA (Secretariat of State),the domain of graduates of the Pontifical Diplomatic Academy, has traditionally been the body to advise the pope on international diplomacy and sensibilities. Under Benedict, however, it has lost some status. John Paul II had relied heavily on the Secretariat of State, and several of his recent predecessors SIPDIS were Vatican diplomats before becoming pope. Benedict XVI comes from the theological, rather than diplomatic wing of the Vatican, and his new Secretary of State, in a break with tradition, is also a non-diplomat. There are some rumors that Sostituto (the de facto number three at the Vatican) Archbishop Leonardo Sandri may also be on his way out, to be replaced by another non-diplomat. Whether he stays or goes, the rumors are indicative of the current climate in which Benedict has shown a preference for less reliance on Vatican diplomats. Comments from some of our diplomatic contacts at the MFA have made clear that they feel somewhat frozen out in the current papacy. -------------- What's Next for the Vatican and Muslims? -------------- ¶8. (C) Current Vatican inter-religious dialogue chief Cardinal Paul Poupard told the Ambassador recently he was optimistic VATICAN 00000232 003.2 OF 003 about continuing relations with Islam. While not blaming the media for the controversy, he made it clear that he thought the situation on the ground was not as bad as it was portrayed in the press. He noted that every one of the ambassadors invited to the September 25 papal gathering had attended the event - even those not resident in Rome. Further, the Muslim envoys seemed pleased by the pope's initiative and the outcome, waiting in line to have their pictures taken with the pontiff. One of them even claimed to have been the originator of the idea to hold the meeting, Poupard said. In response to the Ambassador's question, Poupard noted that the mechanisms for dialogue had continued to function as normal, and in fact had ramped up somewhat since Regensburg. He outlined several other initiatives he said would invigorate Muslim-Christian relations in the wake of the controversy. ¶9. (C) But the feeling among some Muslim ambassadors - and some Vatican officials -- is that the 76-year-old Poupard is not up to giving this dicastery (department) the shot in the arm it needs. If his role is to challenge Islam, rather than to coddle it (as some would accuse his predecessor Michael Fitzgerald of having done),vigorous leadership is needed. Even the doves at the Vatican and envoys from Muslim nations would agree that some spark is needed to retool the dicastery and provide direction to Vatican policy at the working levels. Ambassador of Morocco Ali Achour, for example, told Ambassador Rooney that after Regensburg "there was no one for me to call - no point of contact where I could work things through." Even with certainty in his own mind on his policies, Pope Benedict needs support from below to carry them through. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Benedict may truly regret the reaction of the Muslim world to his speech, and he has certainly taken a good amount of criticism from within and outside of the Catholic Church for Regensburg. Some Catholics, particularly from the inter-religious dialogue community, have been particularly strong in their criticism. But the pope has made clear that he will not back off the challenge he has posed to the Muslim world on religious freedom and violence. With the support of much of the Vatican Curia and others in the Catholic world, he has the opportunity to press this agenda and further define his emerging doctrine of reciprocity. Meanwhile, he will face his first big post-Regensburg test when he travels to Turkey at the end of November (ref d). A trip that was meant to focus primarily on Catholic-Orthodox relations has seen its subtext become the headline. Post will report further on the Turkey trip in the coming weeks. ROONEY