Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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06USUNNEWYORK563 | 2006-03-23 00:53:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | USUN New York |
1. (C) Summary: The Secretary-General's Executive Director for Political Affairs Carlos Lopes and Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for West Africa Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah briefed Acting Polcouns on sensitive efforts underway to resolve the Bakassi border issue. Lopes said SYG Annan remained engaged on the issue and still intended to organize a summit with Presidents Obasanjo and Biya in the second quarter of this year. Lopes said planning was being directed from the SYG's office. The SYG was pursuing a proposal which would allow Nigeria to administer a portion of the peninsula for less than the 20 years. Lopes and Ould-Abdullah expressed hope that U.S. discussions with Nigeria and Cameroon would complement the SYG's mediation. They stressed the importance of persuading Nigeria to withdraw all its military forces beyond the demarcated international border. They also hoped the U.S. would accept a role (together with the UK, France and Germany) as a witness or guarantor to an agreement. End Summary. 2. (C) USUN Acting Polcouns and Poloff, drawing from points in reftel, discussed the Bakassi issue with the SYG's Executive Director Lopes and SRSG Ould-Abdullah on March 14. Lopes expressed appreciation for USG support and offer of assistance for SYG Annan's mediation. Lopes gave assurances that the SYG had not abandoned his mediation. Although distracted by other priorities in the fall, the SYG had refocused attention on Bakassi in January. Lopes noted that the Nigerians, despite acceptance of the ICJ ruling, continued to delay its implementation. There was little likelihood that the Nigerians would withdraw soon on their own. The SYG remained committed to mediating what he hoped would lead to a pragmatic solution that Presidents Obasanjo and Biya would find acceptable and would ensure a transfer of sovereignty before Obasanjo left office. 3. (C) Lopes emphasized the sensitivity of the mediation. To ensure secrecy, the SYG had directed that planning for the mediation be confined to a handful of officials led by Lopes in New York and SRSG Ould-Abduallah. (Note: Department of Political Affairs (DPA) officials confirmed that that information related to Bakassi was closely held, so much so that Under Secretary-General of Political Affairs Gambari was not kept fully in the loop.) 4. (C) Lopes and Ould-Abdullah said the plan for a phased withdrawal of the Nigerian military from Bakassi by July 2006 that was agreed upon within the framework of the Mixed Commission was positive in that it fulfilled a pledge made by the two sides at the tripartite summit in Geneva. However, Nigeria's implementation without some additional consideration had always seemed problematic because the plan was subject to the approval of the two presidents. (The SYG's approval was also required, but this was a formality.) Given his prior experiences and political realities in both Nigeria and Cameroon, the SYG was under no illusion that an Obasanjo-Biya agreement was easily achievable. Nonetheless, he thought it possible. He had directed Lopes and Ould-Abdullah to plan for a tripartite summit, preferably in the second quarter of the year, ie, by the end of June. No date had been set as yet. However, Lopes said the SYG shared Cameroon's concern that a further delay, with his own term of office ending and Nigeria's presidential elections looming, would reduce the chances of a resolution. 5. (C) Lopes did not go into much detail about how he was proceeding with planning other than to describe the process as a classic conflict-resolution exercise. He said there would be no attempt to resurrect what may or may not have been an agreement of the two presidents from their private discussions with the SYG last year. Ould-Abdullah noted that Biya had disavowed the agreement. Lopes also observed that Cameroon had made crystal clear that it would not accept any payments. Thus, he said a lease-back formula was not viable and was no longer under consideration. 6. (C) That said, Lopes said the SYG's inclination was still to nudge the two presidents to accept an interim arrangement that would accelerate the withdrawal of the Nigerian military from Bakassi. Current conceptual planning was on developing a proposal that would allow the Nigerians to administer a portion of Bakassi for a limited period. In general, he said he was focused on two issues: a transitional arrangement and the status of the Bakassi population. On the former, he said any transition period would have be less than twenty years (a period supposedly discussed by the two presidents last year) and preferably less than ten years. Lopes stated that he was making more headway "in narrowing the gap" on the issue of the status of the villagers. Lopes and Ould-Abdullah noted the importance of Nigeria fully withdrawing its military to the international demarcated border, apparently prior to any transitional period. 7. (C) Lopes did not shed much more light on the transitional arrangement under consideration. He did confirm that Cameroon would retain the full right to extract natural resources from Bakassi during any transition period. 8. (C) Lopes and Ould-Abdullah said that if there was a bilateral agreement, it was important to Cameroon that certain "friendly nations"--notably the U.S., UK, France and Germany--would be associated with this Bakassi agreement. Cameroon preferred international "guarantors." If this was not feasible, Lopes said the countries would be asked to serve as "witnesses." He wondered, however, whether the U.S. (and other countries) might consider some kind of a "witness plus" role, though this was left undefined. Lopes and Ould-Abdullah said they had briefed the UK and France on the current status of the mediation and planned to do so with Germany. Lopes said that Nigeria did not seemed concerned about international involvement. He added that Cameroon had made clear that it would object to any role for the African Union or another African state or regional entity in an agreement. 9. (C) Finally, Lopes and Ould-Abdullah welcomed U.S. advice and promised to stay in touch. They also expressed hope that U.S. discussions with the parties on Bakassi would complement the Secretary-General's endeavors. On specifics, Lopes said only that it would be especially helpful if the U.S. would impress upon President Obasanjo and his aides that the Nigerians must withdraw their military completely from Bakassi. BOLTON |