SEEKING SUPPORT FOR U.S. CANDIDATE FOR THE

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 002111 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: UNGA ODIP ILC SUBJECT: SEEKING SUPPORT FOR U.S. CANDIDATE FOR THE INTERNATIONAL LAW COMMISSION - STATUS REPORT REF: A. STATE 137429 ¶B. STATE 180503 ¶1. ACTION REQUEST PARA 6. ¶2. ON NOVEMBER 16, THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY WILL HOLD ELECTIONS TO FILL ALL 34 SEATS ON THE INTERNATIONAL LAW COMMISSION. THE U.S. HAS NOMINATED FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT DEPUTY LEGAL ADVISER MICHAEL MATHESON FOR ONE OF THE EIGHT VACANCIES IN THE WESTERN EUROPEAN AND OTHERS GROUP (WEOG). THE ELEVEN CANDIDATES FOR THE EIGHT SEATS INCLUDE SEVEN EU MEMBERS (FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, ITALY, PORTUGAL, SWEDEN AND THE UK),CANADIAN, SWISS (ILC HOST COUNTRY),TURKISH AND U.S. NATIONALS. ALL HAVE BEEN ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING AT THE UN IN RECENT MONTHS. TO BE ELECTED, A CANDIDATE MUST RECEIVE A MAJORITY OF THE VOTES OF THOSE PRESENT AND VOTING (ABSTENTIONS DON'T COUNT) AND PLACE AMONG THE TOP EIGHT IN A GENERAL ASSEMBLY SECRET BALLOT. ¶3. THE U.S. LAUNCHED MATHESON'S CAMPAIGN IN DECEMBER 2005 WHEN IT PRESENTED HIS NOMINATION TO THE SECRETARY GENERAL AND THE CHAIRMAN OF THE WEOG. AT THAT TIME, USUN ALSO SENT A DIPLOMATIC NOTE TO ALL MISSIONS (EXCEPT THOSE ON NO CONTACT LIST) REQUESTING SUPPORT FOR THE CANDIDACY. A FOLLOW-UP REMINDER NOTE (AND CV) WAS SENT THIS WEEK. IN AUGUST, THE DEPARTMENT SENT A DEMARCHE REQUEST TO ALL POSTS (REF.A) AND RECENTLY SENT A FOLLOW-UP DEMARCHE REQUEST (REF.B). MATHESON HAS BEEN IN NEW YORK TO MEET WITH DELEGATIONS AND USUN WILL HOST A MEET-THE-CANDIDATE RECEPTION NEXT WEEK. AS THE ELECTION APPROACHES, HIS PRESENCE IN NEW YORK TO CAMPAIGN WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR. ¶4. IN VIEW OF THE U.S. POLICY OF NOT TRADING VOTES, OUR STRATEGY FOR SEEKING SUPPORT IS TO MAKE SURE THAT EACH DELEGATION RECEIVES A PERSONAL REQUEST FROM THE CANDIDATE OR ONE OF USUN'S AMBASSADORS, SENIOR AREA ADVISERS OR OFFICERS. WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE DEPARTMENT USUN OBTAINED COPIES OF MATHESON'S CV AND TALKING POINTS IN ALL SIX OF THE UN'S OFFICIAL LANGUAGES. THESE HAVE BEEN USED BY THE AREA ADVISERS IN THEIR MEETINGS WITH AMBASSADORS FROM OTHER MISSIONS. TO DATE, USUN HAS CONTACTED APPROXIMATELY 110 MISSIONS. POSTS HAVE CONTACTED SOME OF THESE AND AN ADDITIONAL 24 DELEGATIONS WITH WHICH WE HAVE NOT YET MADE CONTACT IN NEW YORK. AS A RESULT OF THESE MEETINGS WITH 134 DELEGATIONS, 70 HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY WILL SUPPORT THE U.S. CANDIDATE. USUN HAS, HOWEVER, RECEIVED ONLY 20 WRITTEN COMMITMENTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS USUALLY A FLURRY OF LATE RESPONSES, THIS NUMBER IS LOW FOR A SECRET BALLOT WHERE TRADITIONALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIPPAGE BETWEEN COMMITMENTS AND VOTES RECEIVED. IF ALMOST ALL DELEGATIONS VOTE (AS THEY DID IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS),WE WILL NEED AT LEAST 97 VOTES TO MEET THE SIMPLE MAJORITY THRESHOLD. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE NUMBER OF CURRENT COMMITMENTS IN ORDER TO PLACE IN THE TOP EIGHT IN THE WEOG. AT THE LAST ILC ELECTION, FIVE YEARS AGO, CANDIDATES ELECTED FROM THE WEOG RECEIVED AROUND 153 VOTES EACH. THE RANGE WAS 161-134. ¶5. THE RACE FOR THE WEOG SEATS IS TIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT EU MEMBERS WILL SUPPORT THEIR PARTNERS' CANDIDATES LEAVING ONLY ONE VOTE FOR AMONG THE OTHER FOUR CANDIDATES (CANADA, SWITZERLAND, TURKEY, U.S.) WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR MATHESON TO GAIN THE SUPPORT OF OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES. ¶6. ACTION REQUEST: IN THE REMAINING TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION, USUN PLANS TO ACCELERATE EFFORTS HERE TO OBTAIN COMMITMENTS FOR THE U.S. CANDIDATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT RESULTS VIA LISTS TO IO/UNP AND URGE THAT DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS ELECTION WHEN MEETING WITH THEIR COUNTERPARTS. THE DEPARTMENT SHOULD ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR THE RESULTS OF REFTEL DEMARCHES IN CAPITALS AND REPEAT AS REQUIRED. WITH JUST TWO WEEKS REMAINING UNTIL THE ELECTION, ACTION TO GATHER VOTES MUST BE A HIGH PRIORITY FOR MATHESON TO BE ELECTED. BOLTON