SYG SELECTION: STRAW POLL SEPTEMBER 14

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 001818 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2011 TAGS: PREL UNSC UN SUBJECT: SYG SELECTION: STRAW POLL SEPTEMBER 14 REF: USUN 1759 Classified By: Ambassador John R. Bolton, Permanent Representative, for reasons 1.4 b,d. ¶1. (C) The Security Council conducted its second straw poll on candidates for Secretary-General on September 14. Though the results were communicated only to Council members, the candidates and their sponsoring delegations, an accurate account of the vote was on the internet within an hour. The results: -- FM Ban: 14 encourage; 1 discourage; 0 no opinion. -- U/SYG Tharoor: 10 encourage; 3 discourage; 2 no opinion. -- DPM Surakiart: 9 encourage; 3 discourage; 3 no opinion. -- Prince Zeid: 6 encourage; 4 discourage; 5 no opinion. -- Dhanapala: 3 encourage; 5 discourage; 7 no opinion. Immediate Reaction -------------- ¶2. (C) As news of the results spread through UN corridors, delegates offered a few common observations. There was genuine surprise at how well Ban did, clearly establishing himself as a front-runner "pulling away" from the rest of the field. Many thought that Prince Zeid performed below expectations. "I can understand that Zeid didn't get high positive marks," said one delegate, "but the large number of negative votes is a surprise." And the improved showing of Surakiart is understood to mean that he will remain in the race, blocking potential new candidates emerging from ASEAN. Is Ban a lock? -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) The Korean delegation could not hide their smiles after being informed of the results. Other delegations seemed surprised that Ban's position had measurably strengthened and - given that the ballots did not differentiate between permanent and elected members - speculated openly on the single negative vote, assuming it to be Japanese. Though the ballots were anonymous, Council members know that the delegation that cast the lone negative vote for Ban also voted against Zeid, voted for Tharoor, and expressed no opinion on the other two. ¶4. (C/NF) The Chinese political coordinator, in a meeting with other Council members later in the day, seemed genuinely surprised by the momentum behind Ban. (Comment: Our reading of the Chinese going into the vote today was that they did not believe that the race was yet "ripe", expecting more candidates and a longer process still to unfold. They are understood to have been one of the two delegations that voted "encourage" for all five candidates, hoping to buttress support for an Asian candidate generally, without identifying a clear front-runner. If so, the rest of the Council does not seem to have cooperated with them. End Comment.) BOLTON