UNSC/UNMEE: MEMBERS FEAR SPREAD OF CONFLICT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 001434 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ER ET PGOV PREL SO UNSC KPKO SUBJECT: UNSC/UNMEE: MEMBERS FEAR SPREAD OF CONFLICT TO SOMALIA AND FURTHER UNMEE DOWNSIZING REF: SECSTATE 122495 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) Africa Division Director Titov updated the Security Council at July 27 consultations on the status of UNSCR 1681 (2006) implementation and on the situation on the ground between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Members looked forward to the August 24 meeting of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC),but Titov warned against expecting changes in the positions of either party. Japanese Permanent Representative (PR) Oshima offered to host consultations with troop-contributing countries (TCCs) in the Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) Working Group (which Japan chairs) in the run-up to UNSC consideration of the September mandate renewal for the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). Several Members appeared to have second thoughts about UNSCR 1681 implementation, expressing concern about the 'undermining' of UNMEE's mandate and looking at the possibility of further downsizing come September mandate renewal as a worst-case scenario. Members also expressed concern about the implications that the protracted stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea carried for the current power struggle between the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and militias of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). END SUMMARY. GROUND SITUATION UNCHANGED, DOWNSIZING ON TRACK -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Titov noted that there were no major military developments in and around the Temporary Security Zone, that troops on both sides were in defensive positions and that no movement of heavy artillery had been observed. He pointed out that the presence of continued restrictions on UNMEE's freedom of movement, especially the helicopter ban, could cause tensions between the sides to escalate. Titov lamented the continued detention of ten UNMEE local staff members. ¶3. (SBU) Titov prefaced his description of UNSCR 1681 implementation by saying that the reduction of UNMEE's force strength to 2,300 had 'far-reaching' implications for the Mission. Nevertheless, he explained, a comprehensive downsizing plan had been finalized and was being implemented: over 500 troops had been repatriated since July 14, with complete reduction anticipated by August 31. Internal streamlining was compensating for the strain downsizing had placed on UNMEE capabilities: DPKO addressed the lack of medical evacuation capacity, for example, by upgrading medical facilities and re-locating a Level II hospital from Asmara to Axum. ¶4. (SBU) Several Members appeared to have second thoughts about UNSCR 1681 implementation, expressing concern about the 'undermining' of UNMEE's mandate and looking at the possibility of further downsizing come September mandate renewal as a worst-case scenario. The UK Deputy PR recommended that UNMEE be granted sufficient time to 'settle in' to its new configuration before its mandate is further revised. (COMMENT: UKUN was the single biggest obstacle to our plan to downsize UNMEE in May and is clearly setting the stage for the fight to come in September should we seek further reductions in UNMEE's size. END COMMENT.) Both the Qatari and Ghanaian representatives made a plea for the parties to progress on border demarcation, without which the Council would be 'forced' to reconsider further downsizing. Japanese PR Oshima offered to host consultations with UNMEE TCCs in the PKO Working Group (which Japan chairs) in the run-up to consideration of UNMEE's future mandate. (NOTE: The last time this group convened, Titov himself, who re-committed today to attend this future PKO meeting, spoke out against reducing UNMEE's forces. END NOTE.) Only the Peruvian delegate spoke in favor of a 'realistic' approach toward UNMEE's numbers, arguing at length against putting too much faith in the August 24 EEBC meeting. REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF PROTRACTED BORDER STALEMATE -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Titov mentioned the EEBC decision to re-open its field offices in Asmara and Addis Ababa, with staff ready to re-deploy in early August. He urged the international community to remain engaged in the border standoff between Ethiopia and Eritrea, urging Members to persuade the parties to attend the next EEBC meeting on August 24 but warning that he had no indication that either party would attend or that their respective positions would radically change as a result of the meeting. Still, Titov heralded the U.S. diplomatic USUN NEW Y 00001434 002 OF 002 initiative as the only chance for success in the crisis, which was now taking on an increased regional dimension. He said that while the UN could confirm neither the presence of up to 1,500 Ethiopian troops and civilian advisers in and around Baidoa nor the arrival of Ethiopian heavy-lift and attack helicopters at Baidoa Airport, Ethiopian support to the TFG would represent a 'new dynamic' in the current situation in Somalia. Titov added that UNMEE and the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) were preparing a shared analysis of regional security trends to be submitted to the Council. ¶6. (SBU) The majority of Members jumped on Titov's mention of the regional aspects of the situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, led by Ambassador Sanders (drawing from reftel points) and Slovakian PR Burian. The Argentine representative asked about the veracity of TFG press reports about Eritrea's equipping UIC militias; Titov could not confirm but would pass the request on to the Department of Political Affairs, which has the lead on Somalia issues. The UK DPR urged Members to remind the parties to refrain from violence in Somalia, referring to the July 13 Presidential Statement on the issue (S/PRST/2006/31). Danish PR Loj suggested the Council consider holding a broader discussion of sub-regional issues in the near future. Greek PR Vassilakis offered to back-brief the Council on his forthcoming meetings with PRs of the Ethiopian and Eritrean Missions on committing to the EEBC process. BOLTON