DALAI LAMA TO VISIT MONGOLIA AUGUST 21-28

C O N F I D E N T I A L ULAANBAATAR 000625 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM SOCI MG CH JA SUBJECT: DALAI LAMA TO VISIT MONGOLIA AUGUST 21-28 REF: A. ULAANBAATAR 608 ¶B. ULAANBAATAR 385 ¶C. 2002 ULAANBAATAR 818 Classified By: Economic/Political Chief Patrick J. Freeman, for reasons 1.5(B) and (D) ¶1. (C) The Japanese DCM told EP chief on August 16 that the Dalai Lama will transit Japan next week en route to Mongolia. The DCM said that Tokyo had informed the Japanese embassy here that the Dalai Lama would transit Japan en route to Mongolia on August 21, and would transit Japan again on August 28 after leaving Mongolia. (Note: On August 9, Foreign Minister Enkhbold informed the Ambassador that the GOM was considering whether to grant a visa to the Dalai Lama for a visit at an unspecified time this year, while Mongolia is celebrating the 800th anniversary of its establishment. Enkhbold sought any assessment the U.S. might wish to share on the likely Chinese reaction to the Dalai Lama's visit. See ref A. End note.) ¶2. (SBU) On August 16, a Mongolian daily newspaper published a report that the Dalai Lama would visit Mongolia August 21-22 on the invitation of Gandan monastery. A source at the monastery told the embassy that loudspeakers are being installed at the main entrance of the monastery in anticipation of public ceremonies, and that the monastery is being comprehensively cleaned up and polished. The source, who is not clergy and has no direct access to plans for any visit, pronounced himself 90% certain the Dalai Lama will visit next week. ¶3. (C) Comment: The Dalai Lama last visited Mongolia in November 2002, at which time China sent a signal of its displeasure by cutting freight traffic to Mongolia for two days (ref c). While we defer to Beijing colleagues as to the likely Chinese reaction to the upcoming visit, we strongly suspect that, having also seen the newspaper report, our Chinese diplomatic colleagues are busily working their Rolodexes in a likely unsuccessful effort to frustrate a visit next week. SLUTZ