Mongolia Still Pondering Guatemala UNSC Vote

UNCLAS ULAANBAATAR 000558 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EAP/CM, WHA/CEN, AND IO/UNP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL UN UNSC MG IR VE GT SUBJECT: Mongolia Still Pondering Guatemala UNSC Vote Refs: (A) Dugan/Freeman email of 6/16/06, (B) Ulaanbaatar 307 and previous Sensitive But Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution ¶1. (SBU) On July 20, E/P Chief called MFA Multilateral Relations Director General Enkhtsetseg to ask whether the July 3 announcement of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Guatemala had resulted in any movement in Mongolia's decision on this year's UNSC vote. (Note: MFA has told us previously it intended to tie agreement to establish diplomatic relations to conclusion of an agreement for mutual support in elections in international organizations. Effectively, this is Mongolia's effort to win Guatemala's promise to vote for Mongolia in a tough 2008 UNSC election contest versus Iran, in exchange for Mongolia's vote this year. End note.) Enkhtsetseg replied that the ball remains in Guatemala's court on the mutual support agreement, failing which Mongolia would decide how to vote in August as part of its general pre-UNGA review. ¶2. (SBU) During a July 20 meeting, DCM noted to the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor, Davaasuren, and MFA Director General for the Americas, Middle East and Africa Jambaldorj that the U.S. continued to hope Mongolia will declare its support for Guatemala. He noted, for instance, that Secretary Rice would likely raise the subject with Foreign Minister Enkhbold, should schedules permit a brief pull aside on the margins of the ARF meeting in Kuala Lumpur, as Mongolia had requested. ¶3. (SBU) Comment: Clearly, Guatemala has not told Mongolia it has already pledged to support Iran in 2008, and therefore does not feel it can "oversell" its vote by making a conflicting promise to the Mongolians (ref a). We remain optimistic that the Mongolians will opt to vote for Guatemala but, while waiting for a "yes" answer on support in 2008 which will never come from the Guatemalans, MFA may not declare its position much before the UNSC vote is held this fall. Slutz