A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH: ISLAMISM, TUNISIA REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TUNIS 000646 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA/MAG FOR LAWRENCE NEA/FO FOR DONICK, CUTRONA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KMPI PHUM TS SUBJECT: A/S WELCH AND FM ABDALLAH: ISLAMISM, TUNISIA REFORM REF: TUNIS 425 Classified By: Ambassador William Hudson for Reasons 1.4 b & d ¶1. (C) Summary: In a March 15 meeting with A/S Welch, FM Abdelwahab Abdallah discussed the "dangers of political Islam", claiming there is no such thing as moderate Islamists and accusing the West of having "insufficient knowledge of Islam," and being misled by the "double-speak of Islamists" who claim to respect democracy. Abdallah said the GOT did not fear an Islamist political threat due to Tunisia's strong economic and social performance, but predictably did not respond to A/S Welch's challenge that Tunisia, precisely because it did not fear Islamism, was in a better position than some to open up politically. At a dinner for A/S Welch hosted by the Ambassador, a group of eight Tunisians representing civil society and business highlighted the fact that the GOT does not offer any better explanation to its own population about the reasons for continued political dominance and social control. These interlocutors spoke animatedly at the dinner about the need for greater freedom of expression and the development of a new political elite and confirmed that the greatest fear across all levels of Tunisian society remains the power and degree of control of the GOT itself. End Summary. ¶2. (C) At a March 15 meeting in Tunis, FM Abdallah stated that the USG and the GOT "agree on almost everything, except for one thing: Islamists." Abdallah then launched a monologue, frequently heard from GOT officials, about the dangers of political Islam. He said that there "is no such thing as a moderate Islamist." He said once someone accepts the ideology of Islam, it "governs all life." He claimed Islam does not tolerate democracy, freedom or women's rights. He said that is why the Tunisian constitution forbids Islamist political parties. Abdallah suggested that if Islamist parties were allowed to participate in democratic elections, they would "automatically gain sympathy" due to language of "divine will", and that they would win elections due to voters "fear of God and hell". He said that on TV debates these parties would invoke religious precepts, and that no matter which parties ran, Islamists would always win. Abdallah suggested that perhaps in 50 years Arab societies would "develop to the point where voters would be more educated and less prone to voting out of religious sympathy or fear of going to hell," but that this was not currently the case. ¶3. (C) Abdallah said the West was "mistaken" in its view of Islamists for two reasons: it had insufficient knowledge of Islam and the "duplicity of the double-speak of Islamists" who claim to respect democratic values. He claimed there was a great difference in what Islamists said publicly and their private views and political goals. ¶4. (C) A/S Welch responded that it was difficult to speak about Islamist politics without referring to specific countries, as political scenarios varied widely in the region. The USG feels some of the same discomfort concerning Islamism in the region. He said despite accusations, the USG does not support Islamic governments per se, although we do have some relationships with them, e.g. in Turkey, which had its own "unique brand of politics." (Abdallah countered that the Turkish government could no longer be characterized as Islamist). A/S Welch reminded Abdallah that political openness could serve to "expose Islamist parties" as either ineffective or duplicitous. He asserted that reform must occur according to the unique situation in a given country, and that "what we see in one country we don't recommend for all." A/S Welch said Tunisia was correct in identifying Islamist movements as a potential political threat, noting for example that he believed Hamas probably had grander political designs, extending perhaps to leading Palestinians both in and outside the territories. A/S Welch continued that it was the USG's intention not just to contain, but to defeat such movements in a democratic way: they will fail when their own people recognize their deficits. ¶5. (C) Reemphasizing that the political landscape is drastically different across the MENA region, A/S Welch noted that countries would have different reform approaches, but hopefully the same destination: an open, democratic system. In this regard, he noted that Tunisia enjoyed significant social and economic strength, which in our view allows the GOT to take some risks while undertaking political reforms. He said given Tunisia's domestic strength and political stability, the USG was puzzled as to why the pace of reform was so slow, observing that Tunisia was "curiously closed in some areas" despite "more room to maneuver" than other, less politically stable, countries in the region. TUNIS 00000646 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Abdallah responded that the GOT was not afraid of Islamists. He said given Tunisia's homogenous society, women's rights, and strong social, economic, and education performance, Islamism has "no room to prosper in Tunisia." He said the GOT feared mainly terrorism. He said the GOT feared links between some Tunisians, notably "released prisoners", and Al Qaeda; the GOT "had to keep its eye on" these Tunisians. (NB: Abdallah was likely referring to recently released prisoners that were members of the banned Tunisian Islamic political party En-Nahdha and other recently released prisoners who had been arrested for allegedly preparing to commit terrorist attacks. Ref A). ¶7. (C) Comment: Abdallah's comments were entirely consistent with what we hear across the board from GOT officials. He predictably did not respond to A/S Welch's comment that Tunisia, precisely because it did not fear Islamism, was in a better position than some to open up politically, except unintentionally to validate it by reiterating Tunisia's strengths and impermeability to extremism. ¶8. (C) Comment (cont'd): Similarly, the GOT does not offer any better explanation to its own population about the reasons for continued political dominance and social control. At a dinner for A/S Welch hosted by the Ambassador, a group of eight Tunisians representing civil society and business spoke animatedly about the need for greater freedom of expression and the need to develop a new political elite. "The old dinosaurs are disappearing," with no new leadership in the wings. Like the majority of well-educated Tunisians, none advocated an Islamic government, but notably, neither did they gauge the threat of radical Islam in Tunisia to be high. They had the usual theories about increased religious observance among Muslims in Tunisia, (e.g. lack of moral leadership from the family and from government, rebellion against an older, secular generation, a sense of Muslim victimization in the world) but did not believe that fear of political Islam should retard reform efforts here. In fact, a woman business leader present claimed that should Islamists ever gain strength in Tunisia, women would take to the streets to thwart any attempts to limit their freedom. ¶9. (C) Comment (cont'd): The dinner confirmed that the greatest fear across all levels of Tunisian society is the power of the GOT itself. All guests cited examples of the expansive, punitive powers of government authorities. However, when asked by A/S Welch to name the specific red lines set by the GOT, even these comparatively outspoken interlocutors were visibly reluctant to voice what they all knew. After A/S Welch repeated the question for a third time, a political science professor finally blurted, "you cannot challenge the President, his family, or the police." Met with silence, he quickly added that any public criticism of Islam was also strictly taboo. Relieved of this slight changes of subject, other immediately retorted, "but you could criticize religion privately, just not on TV or in public." End Comment. HUDSON