CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 001673



SIPDIS



NOFORN

SIPDIS



STATE FOR NEA/MAG - HARRIS

STATE PLEASE PASS USTR - BELL

USDOC FOR CLDP - TEJTEL AND ITA/MAC/ONE (NMASON)



E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016

TAGS: PREL, ECON, PGOV, EFIN, ETRD, EINV, KDEM, TS

SUBJECT: CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL

IMPLICATIONS



REF: A. TUNIS 1630

B. TUNIS 1622

C. TUNIS 1255

D. TUNIS 311

E. 05 TUNIS 2266

F. 05 TUNIS 896



Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)



1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: This is the third of a four cable series

on corruption's impact on the Tunisian economy and political

future. Domestic frustration is growing with the rumored

vast commercial holdings of Tunisia's First Family: President

Ben Ali, wife Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and their extended

clan, and more and more Tunisians are willing to openly

discuss the family's alleged corruption. However, severely

limited freedom of speech and minimal political activism have

restricted public discourse on the topic to date. Our

ability to promote freedom of expression, a cornerstone of

our Freedom Agenda for Tunisia, is directly hindered by the

fact that greater freedom of expression would likely lead to

public criticism of the Family's corruption. At the same

time, the Family's interests complicate Ben Ali's own avowed

"plan" for political reform because any viable successor or

opposition could be viewed as a threat to the family's

economic interests. Part three of this series details the

political implications of the family's alleged corruption.

END SUMMARY.



THE IMPACT

--------------



2. (C/NF) While corruption in Tunisia may be on a smaller

scale than in some developing countries, the political

relevance of the rumors is notable because corruption -- at

least as a topic of public conversation -- is a relatively

new phenomenon in Tunisia. Conspicuous consumption -- from

extravagant properties to luxury cars -- was not common in

Tunisia ten years ago. Tunisians are increasingly frustrated

with this new development and are confused about its

relevance to their daily lives. Under President Bourguiba,

Tunisians focused on achieving a good education and

comfortable lifestyle, both goals Bourguiba himself embodied.

Today, elite Tunisians boldly, if not publicly, denounce Ben

Ali and the Trabelsi family as uneducated and uncultured

nouveaux riches whose conspicuous consumption is an affront

to all patriotic Tunisians. Some fear that this new

phenomenon is sucking the life-blood out of Tunisia --

leading to a spiraling educational, moral, social and

economic decline. Worse, many civil society activists

speculate that corruption -- particularly that of First Lady

Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and the broader Trabelsi clan -- is

the fundamental impediment to meaningful political

liberalization.



3. (C/NF) Despite this, most Tunisians seem to be focused on

their personal standard of living and are unwilling to risk

their own socio-economic status by publicly denouncing the

Ben Ali clan's rumored corruption. Unlike a generation ago,

Tunisia now has a large middle class with typical middle

class aspirations. A business contact explained that

students are more interested in their prospects for a family,

home ownership and buying a car than in being politically

active. The European Commission's Head of Delegation

believes that the average citizen is kept "happy" through

increased consumption. While average Tunisians continue to

complain about the rising cost of living and the Family's

rumored corruption, some are beginning to reflect on the

possible link between the two.



4. (C/NF) Despite this, embassy contacts do not yet believe

any opposition movements could gain significant domestic

support under the anti-corruption banner. Most dismiss the

theory that Tunisia's latent Islamist movement could obtain

widespread support by advancing an anti-corruption platform

similar to the one that led Hamas to victory in Palestinian

elections. (NOTE: It remains unclear how non-elites might

respond to this type of opposition. END NOTE.) Civil society

activists, while quick to offer examples of the Ben Ali

clan's corruption, are more likely to complain about the lack

of freedom and political space than to focus on corruption.

It remains uncommon for Tunisians to suggest that Ben Ali

should go on the basis of corruption alone or to make any



specific comment regarding the President's political future,

other than that they expect him to stay for life. Thus,

while international and domestic critics increasingly call

for political reform, few Tunisians are willing to be

politically active, and their concerns over corruption do not

appear strong enough to motivate greater involvement.



THE FUTURE

--------------



5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, the entrenched position of the President

and his family only increases the difficulties domestic and

international entities, including the USG, face in

encouraging political reform in Tunisia. As Ben Ali himself

has suggested that he will one day be a "retired" president

(Ref D),it is not overly optimistic to believe that his

glacially slow political reform "plan" may include increased

political liberties and eventually his own departure.

However, those who believe that Ben Ali is more of a

benevolent father than a corrupt dictator argue that the

Family's corruption (and particularly Leila Ben Ali's

personal influence) is the root cause of his refusal to leave

office and/or accelerate political openness. Given the

popularity of corruption as a topic of discussion in private

circles, it is extremely likely that increased freedom of

speech, one of our main Freedom Agenda goals, would spark

public discussions of corruption and the President's family.

In fact, it appears that the corruption rumors are directly

contributing to the stagnant state of the domestic press.

The prominent case of lawyer Mohamed Abbou, who was jailed

after writing about Trabelsi family influence and corruption,

shows the extent the GOT will go to prevent public criticism

of the Family's activities (Ref F). One contact explains

that Ben Ali and his family are "red lines" which Tunisians

know not to cross.



6. (C/NF) In addition, the Family's vested financial

interests mean that any presidential succession scenario

would likely require some kind of financial guarantees for

the Family that Tunisia's still-developing economy may not be

able to support or that Tunisian public opinion would reject.

During a recent meeting with Deputy Secretary Zoellick (Ref

C),a Tunisian representative of Freedom House said that for

a significant shift in the political status quo, it is

necessary that those "close to the President" be given

assurances that they would "continue to be taken care of"

following the departure of Ben Ali. He added that such an

arrangement would be a tall order for the USG diplomatically,

but that without such assurances to Ben Ali's inner circle, a

more open political system would be difficult. Some surmise

that a 2005 law regarding "the benefits for former

presidents" was crafted precisely to provide for the economic

well being of Ben Ali's immediate family (Ref E) in the event

of a peaceful transition. However, the benefits outlined in

this law would not provide nearly the standard of living to

which the President and his relatives are accustomed.



7. (C/NF) Others allege that President Ben Ali may have

manipulated state coffers to provide for his future. As the

Presidency has a separate budget account, it is possible that

this funding source could have been utilized to allow Ben Ali

to direct funds into personal accounts. Unlike some

notorious rulers, however, there is limited evidence to

support this allegation, and the President's almost

nonexistent foreign travel does not foreshadow that he is

planning a luxurious retirement in Europe or elsewhere.

However, recently some rumors have circulated that the

extended family is beginning to liquidate and consolidate its

domestic holdings and shift some assets overseas in

preparation for Ben Ali's ultimate departure or demise.

Contacts cite these rumors as evidence that the Ben Ali

regime is entering its last days and the President and his

family are looking to make off with their fortune.



8. (C/NF) There is other evidence that the Trabelsi family is

positioning itself for a future political transition.

Tunisians rarely discuss Ben Ali's political maneuvers

without mentioning Leila Ben Ali's own political power and

aspirations. Cabinet reshuffles and official appointments

are generally believed to go to personal allies of the

President, or the First Lady. The recent removal of a senior

MOI official was believed to be due to a falling out with the

President, while Foreign Minister Abdallah is rumored to been



"kicked out" of the Palace (and installed in the MFA)

following an altercation with Leila Ben Ali. The scope of

these political relationships are one way the Trabelsi clan

are believed to be securing family members' financial

well-being -- by installing enough influential GOT allies to

guarantee they will not be excluded.



9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The corruption rumors -- true or false --

are clearly working against our efforts to speed democratic

reform in Tunisia. As long as such rumors continue to

spread, it is unlikely the GOT will increase political space

that could facilitate public discourse likely to be harshly

critical of the President. Additionally, presidential

succession options are limited by the need to cover-up past

illicit activities. However, the lack of Tunisian political

activism, or even awareness, seems to be a more serious

impediment. While frustration with the First Family's

corruption may eventually lead to increased demands for

political liberalization, it does not yet appear to be

heralding the end of the Ben Ali era. END COMMENT.

HUDSON