BEN ALI STALWART RUMORED TO HAVE US SUPPORT AS

S E C R E T TUNIS 001099 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG - LAWRENCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM TS SUBJECT: BEN ALI STALWART RUMORED TO HAVE US SUPPORT AS PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSOR REF: A. STATE 66104 ¶B. STATE 65681 ¶C. TUNIS 666 ¶D. TUNIS 557 ¶E. TUNIS 311 ¶F. TUNIS 55 ¶G. 05 TUNIS 2266 ¶H. 05 TUNIS 1805 Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Since his appointment as Minister of National Defense in August 2005, Kamel Morjane's role in the domestic political scene has been a topic of increasing interest to Tunisian political observers. As Morjane spent much of his career outside of Tunisia working with the UN, few knew his political alliances - or even if he was a ruling RCD party member. This "outsider" reputation seemingly led to rumors that Morjane had U.S. support for a possible appointment as vice president or even as a successor for Ben Ali (Ref F). While on the surface Morjane's international experience and affable demeanor suggested he might support a more democratic process, his remarks to US officials during the April Joint Military Commission meetings in Washington were strongly supportive of Ben Ali's glacial political reform strategy, and, like other GOT officials, rejected any role Islamists can play in a democracy. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) When Morjane was appointed (Ref H),few Tunisians thought much of his arrival on the political scene. The former Minister of Defense (Hedi M'Henni) was widely considered inept, and given the fact that the military is controlled by a civilian, the selection of Morjane, a long-time career diplomat with experience in United Nations peacekeeping operations, seemed fitting. He has maintained a low profile domestically, in part because the Tunisian military is small and plays no political role in domestic issues. Unlike his counterparts in more visible ministries, such as Foreign Affairs or the Prime Ministry, Morjane receives little press coverage for his activities. However, this low profile does not mean Morjane is a marginal politician. In fact, he has strong personal ties to the President, as he was born in the same coastal town as Ben Ali (Hammam Sousse) and is married to the daughter of Ben Ali's cousin. ¶3. (C) After Morjane was excluded in a recent expansion of the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) party Political Bureau (Ref D),it was rumored he was not even an �00A;RCD member. When asked directly, Morjane appeared disturbed that others were discussing his party membership. "I have been a party member since my youth," Morjane recently told the Ambassador, explaining that he was involved in the "Constitutional Youth" student association that was related to the RCD (formerly known as the Social Constitutional Party (PSD)). Morjane added that he was not eligible to join the RCD Political Bureau as he was not an RCD Central Committee member. ¶4. (C) Despite his low-profile domestically, in early 2006 Tunisians privately started to discuss the possibility that Ben Ali may be grooming Morjane as a successor or possible vice president and eventually a presidential successor. October's law (Ref G) on the benefits to former presidents and the rumors that Algerian President Bouteflika might name a vice president only added fuel to the speculation. Part of this rumor included the idea that Morjane's potential candidacy enjoyed US support, although it is not clear where this idea started. The U.S. had supported Morjane's 2005 candicacy to become the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, however another candidate was selected. Military relations between the U.S. and Tunisia are among the best of all the bilateral issues, however, few Tunisians know the details of our cooperation. Morjane did graduate from an American university and has many American friends from his years of service overseas. However, none of these facts are a strong foundation for the rumors that circulated. (COMMENT: Some Tunisians have even said that Morjane is an American citizen, although consular files reveal no evidence of that. END COMMENT.) However, when Ben Ali's Republic Day speech (Ref C) focused on the usual economic and social programs instead of any political reform, most of the speculation about Morjane's future became muted. ¶5. (C) A well-seasoned international diplomat and a fluent English speaker, Morjane is more polished and affable than many of our GOT interlocutors. He appears to be informal with colleagues and subordinates, which is unusual in the traditional GOT hierarchy. It is not clear how he is viewed inside the Ministry of Defense or broader GOT entities, as interlocutors are rarely willing to offer personal views of other officials. However, Morjane appears to have a positive international image, which is reinforced by his stated pragmatic views on military, economic and social issues. ¶6. (C) Morjane, however, is on message when it comes to political reform. Recently, Morjane spoke at length with Deputy Secretary Zoellick (Ref A) and Assistant Secretary Welch (Ref B) about democracy in Tunisia. He enthusiastically argued that Ben Ali's "orderly" and "planned" transition to greater democracy in Tunisia is the only option for Tunisia. Like the majority of GOT officials, Morjane argued that there is no place for Islamists in politics, who use "double talk" to gain power in an open system only to reverse the course of democracy and freedom once in power. Political opposition must "behave" and "accept the minimum basis of dialogue," Morjane added. ¶7. (S) COMMENT: While it is only natural that Morjane must demonstrate his allegiance to the president that appointed him, his comments seemed to indicate more than a perfunctory belief that Ben Ali's political plan is the right choice for Tunisia. While this does not improve his standing with domestic and foreign entities that are calling for increased democratization in Tunisia, such views make it more feasible that Morjane could be a successor to Ben Ali. We note that contacts in and out of government, including the President himself, increasingly are referring to an orderly transition of power in advance of Ben Ali's death or incapacitation (Refs E and F). END COMMENT. HUDSON