JAPAN'S UNSC REFORM EFFORT LOOSING STEAM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 000711 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2021 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC XA JA SUBJECT: JAPAN'S UNSC REFORM EFFORT LOOSING STEAM? Classified By: Political Minister Counselor W. Michael Meserve. Reasons: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Japan's Option C plan "did not fly" with its G3 partners, MOFA's UN Policy Division Director Aikawa told PolOffs February 7. Aikawa did not know how much longer Japan could "paper over" its differences with the G3. Implying that UN Security Council reform may be loosing steam domestically, Aikawa acknowledged that while both PM Koizumi and FM Aso continue to believe the issue is important, neither is pressing MOFA to pursue it aggressively at this time. Separately, Aikawa said he expected the U.S. to press for the election of the next Secretary General in the first half of the year, rather than at the end, as previously expected. Japan, as a UNSC member, hopes to be consulted early in the process, he noted, and not be subjected to a "last minute surprise" like during the last elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Japan's Option C plan "did not fly" with its G3 partners (India, Brazil and Germany),MOFA UN Policy Division Director Kazutoshi Aikawa told Embassy political officers February 7. The G3's two main concerns with Option C, he said, were the reduction in the proposed Security Council expansion (21 seats vice 25 in the original G4 proposal),and the fact that the number of seats for each region had not been pre-designated as "non-permanent" and "permanent." The "most reluctant" of the partners, Brazil, was afraid that, alone, it could not win two-thirds of the General Assembly votes needed to become a permanent member. Germany feared it would not get the one seat allotted to Europe. And India was still insisting on veto privileges for new permanent members. Aikawa commented that he didn't know how much longer Japan could continue to "paper over" its differences with the G3. It was only a matter of time before its "temporary separation" with the G3 would lead to "divorce." ¶3. (C) A permanent UNSC seat may no longer be at the top of PM Koizumi's agenda, Aikawa suggested, or that of FM Aso, though both continue to believe the issue is important. Referring to FM Aso as a "political type," Aikawa opined that Aso believes the time for UNSC reform "has not yet come" and the issue "is not worth pressing now." ¶4. (C) Touching on the atmospherics surrounding discussion of UNSC reform at the recent African Union (AU) Summit in Sudan, Aikawa commented wryly that the "Chinese were running the show" at the convention center (built with Chinese aid). Chinese personnel appeared to be handling everything behind the scenes, from technical support to decoration. And even though China, like Japan and many other countries, had been invited as an observer, Chinese delegates had passes to attend the meetings, while others had to "sneak in." Aikawa stopped short of mentioning outcomes from the meeting, but commented that Japan "needs better relations with China" if for no other reason than to prevent the type of negative international campaign it launched against Japan last summer to thwart its attempts at UNSC reform. A "Learning Experience" -------------- ¶5. (C) Whatever the eventual outcome of its bid for a permanent UNSC seat, pursuing UNSC reform in concert with the G4 has been an overall positive experience for the G4 countries, Aikawa observed. Brazil in particular has benefited from the increased visibility it has gained as a result of its campaign. Before the process began, Director Aikawa suggested, not many people took the Brazilian bid seriously, but now Brazil is a "legitimate contender." India neither gained nor lost anything, Aikawa remarked. In fact, he suggested, Indian efforts to get a permanent seat were always lukewarm; even if UNSC reform does not happen until the "75th or 100th anniversary of the UN's founding, it probably would be OK with them," he joked. For Japan, it was a "learning experience"; it was the first time the Japanese government had allied with Brazil and India to pursue a common agenda. It also was the first time the Japanese government had inserted itself into internal African politics, an experience he described as "painful" at times. Next UN Secretary General -------------- ¶6. (C) Aikawa said he expected the United States to press for the election of the next Secretary General in the first half of the year, rather than at the end, as previously expected. Japan, as a UNSC member, hopes to be consulted early in the process, he noted, and not be subjected to a "last minute surprise" like during the last elections. Commenting on speculation that it was "Asia's turn" to be UNSYG, Aikawa remarked that both ROK FM Ban Ki-moon and Thai Deputy PM and former FM Surakiart Sathirathai appear to be running hard, but offered that there was no front runner at the moment. South Korea is wisely using its experience on the Security Council during the last SYG election to push its candidate, ROK FM Ban. The Koreans are lobbying key Security Council members, unlike the "unsophisticated" Thai who have launched an "ineffective marketing campaign" trying to drum up "grass roots support" from random African member states (not on the Security Council) for their candidate, Deputy PM Surakiart. The Koreans also have appealed to France, selling FM Ban's fluency in French, a pre-requisite to getting the French vote, Aikawa said. SCHIEFFER