TOP ADVISOR PUSHES "LABOR BIG BANG" FOR GROWTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 007064 SIPDIS SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO USDOL DAS SMALL AND ILAB/BRODSKY E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016 TAGS: ECON ELAB PGOV EINV JA SUBJECT: TOP ADVISOR PUSHES "LABOR BIG BANG" FOR GROWTH REF: A. TOKYO 5903 ¶B. TOKYO 5962 ¶C. TOKYO 6250 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 b/d. Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Abe supports a "labor big bang" as a pillar of the administration's new growth strategy, Council for Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) private sector member Naohiro Yashiro told Embassy officials. Yashiro judges Japan's labor market structures to be out of step with the world economy and has advocated deregulation to forestall the shrinkage of Japan's workforce, raise productivity, and stimulate growth. He also advocates deregulation, rather than new social programs, as the key to creating meaningful employment opportunities under PM Abe's "second chance" agenda. Yashiro's vision offers concrete proposals for the current tough budget environment and well complements our regulatory reform goals, but will require a significant political commitment to implement. End summary. CEFP Member Advocates "Labor Big Bang" to Promote Growth -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister Abe supports a "labor big bang" as a pillar of the administration's new growth strategy, Council for Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) private sector member Naohiro Yashiro told the Economic Minister and Financial Attache December 1. Yashiro, a labor economist at Tokyo's International Christian University, stated that he had formally begun advocating the policy to the CEFP during a November 30 meeting. ¶3. (C) "I am fighting socialism in Japan," began Yashiro as he gave some background on his proposal. A disconnect has evolved between the global economy and large parts of Japan's labor market, he explained, where the manufacturing sector had adapted and competes at the world level, but the non-manufacturing sector remains "socialist" in outlook. That outlook is so entrenched and difficult in some areas, he added, that Japan's need to transition to a market-based system is comparable to Russia's. So are the challenges. ¶4. (SBU) The outdated labor structures are a drag on productivity and growth, continued Yashiro. Unnecessary regulation has kept "huge potential assets" -- like Japan's highly educated female workforce -- from fully participating in the economy, and the labor of "the healthy elderly" has also been wasted. Summarizing, Yashiro stated that by deregulating the labor market, resources could move from low-productivity sectors to high-productivity activities, thereby raising average productivity and the national growth rate. Japan's Outdated Labor Structures -------------- ¶5. (C) Asked for concrete examples of outdated labor structures, Yashiro answered that all job matching services offered by the Japanese government are performed by public servants, despite the existence of cheaper and more effective private sector alternatives. Yashiro stated that Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW) officials strongly disagree with his deregulation prescriptions, and in the case of outsourcing job matching services, they have clung to Japan's ratification of an ILO convention from 1948 that states all such services should be provided by the public sector. The rationale for that agreement was to create a minimum service standard in developing countries at a time when little or no private sector option existed. The United States never signed the agreement, and Italy and the Netherlands withdrew from it as alternatives emerged. MHLW officials, however, insist on the agreement's obligations as a bureaucratic tactic to preserve jobs and the status quo. ¶6. (C) Yashiro also pointed to Japan's current rules governing personnel changes. Japanese case law has established four conditions for layoffs: 1) managers must prove to the courts that layoffs are necessary; 2) they must show they have taken "preemptive measures" to avoid cutting staff; 3) they must show that there has been no TOKYO 00007064 002 OF 003 discrimination in the process; and 4) they must consult with unions. The first condition should be determined by management, not the courts, stated Yashiro, and the "preemptive measure" condition is based on the false assumption that any worker can be retrained to do any job. That simply is not the case in today's economy, he argued, while noting these conditions prevent companies from retooling, and even expanding, as the market changes. "Big Bang" Recommendations -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Yashiro identified creating a U.S.-style white-collar exemption and reform of the Worker Dispatch Law as two concrete measures that could be part of a "labor big bang." The white-collar exemption, possibly to be created through a new Labor Contracts Law (ref C),would increase the flexibility of the system by reducing the number of Japanese job categories and better aligning supervisors' and professionals' pay with performance, rather than hours worked. By putting the provisions in legislation, it would also increase employers' security by transparently regulating something now ambiguously governed by court precedents. Changing the Worker Dispatch Law would also increase labor market flexibility by removing the requirement that companies convert dispatched workers (those brought in through temporary employment agencies) to permanent hires after three years. ¶8. (SBU) Noting that the number of dispatched workers has increased steadily in the past ten years, Yashiro said that unions dislike the trend, argue that companies should hire their employees directly, and believe that the mandated conversion will lead to a greater number of "regular" workers. Yashiro disagreed, calling the unions' position "overly optimistic" and pointing out that if an employer wants to hire a dispatched worker permanently, it will. What happens under the current law, he stated, is that employers who are unsure of whether converting a dispatched worker to permanent status will be economically viable simply terminate that worker's contract shortly before the three-year limit and hire a new dispatched worker. The three-year limit thus makes the worker's employment less stable, increases general turnover and skill loss, and lessens an employer's incentive to train dispatched workers. With "non-regular" workers now consitituting almost one-third of the labor force, the market as a whole is less stable and more prone to skill loss with the three-year limit in place. Current Labor Legislation -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Asked about the prospects for labor legislation currently being prepared for the regular 2007 Diet session, Yashiro described the posturing and potential stalemate among employer, union, and academic representatives on MHLW's various advisory committees (ref C) as another artifact of Japan's outdated labor structures. The current method of formulating policy, with the three groups dividing resources among themselves, worked fine in a period of high economic growth. During a period of structural change like today, however, the process lends itself to stagnation. ¶10. (C) Yashiro floated the idea, however, that a stalemate in deliberations over a new Labor Contracts Law and revised Labor Standards Law could be in the interest of those supporting a "labor big bang." If the Labor Policy Council cannot come to consensus over issues like a white-collar exemption, or if the Council's recommendations stray too far from the Cabinet's policy direction, Yashiro stated that the CEFP has the right to intervene and formulate policy in line with the Cabinet's direction. Unions would not like that intervention, but he said that the unions represent people with jobs, and it was his responsibility to advocate policies that would be best for all workers, including those who were out of work. Social Disparities and PM Abe's "Second Chance" Agenda -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Commenting on the topic of social and income disparities, Yashiro noted that Japan's Gini coefficient (a measure of income inequality) had been increasing, but that long-term demographic changes were the primary drivers of the TOKYO 00007064 003 OF 003 shift (ref B). When Japan's wealthy elderly, for example, choose not to work and instead spend down their savings, their income from working drops, which is counted in the statistics as an increase in inequality. Moreover, the increase in double-income families, a reflection of women's increasing freedom to work, can also upwardly skew the income inequality statistics. ¶12. (C) On Abe's proposed "second chance" program to address social disparities (ref A),Yashiro stated that the interministerial committee established to flesh out the idea had received little more than "a collection of budget requests" when it had solicited project ideas from ministries. Ministries had little time to respond, he added, and were looking in the current tight budget environment for ways to secure resources. The result was a collection of project spending proposals with dubious potential to create meaningful new opportunities. ¶13. (C) At the November 30 CEFP meeting, Yashiro argued to Financial Services Minister Yuji Yamamoto (who wears a second hat as "Second Chance" Minister) that deregulation, rather than new program funding, was the best way to create "second chance" opportunities in Japan. He gave as an example that many high school dropouts in Japan wished to become barbers or beauticians, and that many, after studying at trade schools, had been able to pass the required national licensing exam. Japanese regulations require, however, that barbers and beauticians also be high school graduates in order to receive their licenses. That regulation, he argued, was a perfect example of how unnecessary regulation restricted competition and kept willing and qualified workers away from available job opportunities. Yamamoto, according to Yashiro, said he had not thought of deregulation before as a way of approaching the "second chance" initiative. CEFP Working Group to Issue Report -------------- ¶14. (C) Yashiro stated that the CEFP has created a small working group to discuss "labor big bang" policies, and that the group would likely issue a report by the end of February to be incorporated into the Cabinet's overarching policy framework. Questioned, he admitted that he had been studying and advocating similar labor policies for his entire academic career, and that he had little need for a working group, but such a "process" would add credibility to the policy recommendations. The group would also massage the proposals into a suitable framework for presentation. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) Yashiro's reform ideas are refreshingly direct, and they suggest concrete policy proposals that can both be implemented in a tight budget environment and complement our regulatory reform goals of a more liberal, open, and vigorous Japanese economy. They will also, however, require significant political commitment. Yashiro has already had to defend his deregulation agenda in the newspapers as pro-growth and not inevitably leading to increased inequality. We are waiting to see if PM Abe makes public the support he has reportedly voiced to Yashiro in private. SCHIEFFER