AMBASSADOR AND CCS SHIOZAKI ON NORTH KOREA, CHINA,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 006954 SIPDIS SIPDIS OSD/ISA FOR LAWLESS/HILL/BASALLA, COMUS JAPAN YOKOTA FOR J0/J00/J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR KN CH JA SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND CCS SHIOZAKI ON NORTH KOREA, CHINA, AND INVESTMENT ISSUES Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer; Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (S) Summary: Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki outlined Japanese expectations for the upcoming Six-Party Talks during a wide-ranging meeting with the Ambassador on December 11. Shiozaki welcomed the resumption of talks in Beijing, but said Japan is not particularly optimistic about its outcome. He also said some in the Government of Japan were concerned about Japan being marginalized during the course of discussions. Shiozaki said that if there was a breakthrough in Beijing on the nuclear issue, Japanese financial support for North Korea could not be counted on until there was further movement on the abduction issue. Shiozaki reacted favorably to the notion of a trilateral strategic dialogue with China and agreed that such a forum could calm potential PRC concerns over enhanced U.S.-Japan engagement with India. Turning to the domestic arena, Shiozaki expressed a desire to change legislation related to triangular mergers to facilitate more foreign direct investment. He also reiterated the Abe administration's commitment to addressing problems associated with Collective Self-Defense. Shiozaki acknowledged that he and Prime Minister Abe had different views on the matter than Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma. End Summary. Six-Party Talks: Japanese Anxiety and Redlines -------------- - ¶2. (S) The Ambassador hosted Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki for a wide-ranging and cordial one-on-one breakfast meeting on December 11. The Ambassador opened the meeting by assuring Shiozaki that the U.S. is returning to the Six-Party Talks only because of Chinese assurances that there would be meaningful progress. The U.S. has made it clear that if the DPRK does not take visible steps to meet its past commitments, the talks will go no where. Shiozaki replied that Japan welcomes the resumption of multilateral talks, but admitted there was anxiety among some in the government that Japan could find itself marginalized during the course of discussions. ¶3. (S) The Ambassador asked what would happen if there were a breakthrough and an aid package needed to be put together for the DPRK. Shiozaki said that the GOJ would not be able to participate unless the DPRK showed movement on the abduction issue. Shiozaki emphasized that the public would not support any formal assistance to North Korea unless North Korea took some steps toward resolving the emotionally-charged issue. The Ambassador emphasized the full U.S. commitment on the matter, noting that the President himself has taken a strong, personal interest in the fate of the Japanese abductees. U.S.-Japan-China Trilateral Strategic Dialogue -------------- - ¶4. (C) The Ambassador complimented Prime Minister Abe on his outreach to China and the Republic of Korea noting that Chinese Ambassador Wang Yi had described PM Abe's efforts as opening a "new era" in bilateral relations. The Ambassador also relayed Amb. Wang's suggestion that a trilateral strategic dialogue be held between Washington, Tokyo, and Beijing. Shiozaki appeared surprised by the suggestion, but immediately warmed to the concept, adding with a laugh that Japan should have been the one suggesting it. The Ambassador noted that having China propose such a forum was in itself significant, given Beijing's long-standing suspicions of both U.S. and Japanese motives. Shiozaki agreed that launching a trilateral dialogue with Beijing might also ease possible PRC concerns over Japan's proposal for a Quad forum with Australia and India. TOKYO 00006954 002 OF 003 Bilateral Relations: Realignment and Intel Cooperation -------------- -------------- ¶5. (S) The Ambassador emphasized the importance of moving quickly with legislation to allow the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) to begin work on building facilities on Guam to accommodate the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan. Shiozaki said that some additional adjustment in wording was required because JBIC traditionally provided aid to developing countries and this involved "aid" to a developed country. Nevertheless, Shiozaki stated that there should be "no problem" with moving ahead with the JBIC bill in the next Diet session (Comment: JDA officials subsequently have told the embassy that Shiozaki will publicly announce on December 15 that legislation will be submitted in the January session of the Diet. End Comment.) The Ambassador suggested that in addition to alliance transformation, enhanced intelligence sharing should be highlighted at the upcoming "2 2" State/Defense ministerial meetings and the proposed May summit. Shiozaki agreed with the proposal, adding that PM Abe fully supports enhanced intel sharing. ¶6. (C) Shiozaki noted that the Prime Minister is also serious about addressing the issue of Collective Self-Defense. While acknowledging political sensitivities related to the July, 2007 Upper House election, Shiozaki said that recent public comments by the Ambassador were a welcome addition to the ongoing dialogue in Japan. Shiozaki acknowledged, however, that he and Defense Minister Kyuma are following "different paths" on the issue. Shiozaki expressed frustration with Kyuma's tendency to speak out of turn. "You can't tell (Kyuma) anything," Shiozaki continued, "since he believes he is well-briefed on all of the issues." Shiozaki concluded that the more fundamental problem is that Kyuma's knowledge base is "ten years out of date." Economic Issues: FDI Barriers, Highway Bill -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador cautioned that a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) proposal to limit triangular mergers threatened to damage Japan's ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Shiozaki admitted that he had only realized the seriousness of the issue the previous week, having been immersed in political debate over a controversial highway bill. Shiozaki said he would meet with LDP Mori Faction Leader Nobutaka Machimura and Minister of Trade, Economy, and Industry Akira Amari later in the day to discuss how to fix the problem (Note: later in the day, Shiozaki publicly cautioned the LDP over the risk the M&A proposal poses for Japan's FDI environment. End Note). Shiozaki commented that many LDP members are reluctant to take on Keidanren over the M&A issue given the business association's long-standing financial support to LDP candidates. Returning to the highway bill, Shiozaki disputed media reports that the legislation was a step backwards in terms of reform. The Ambassador suggested that both the U.S. and GOJ needed to start formulating some economic topics that could be addressed at the proposed May summit. Ideally, the summit would have security, intelligence, and economic components that could be seen as deliverables. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Shiozaki was very relaxed and open during the whole breakfast. He was both candid and thoughtful in the discussion. Judging from the quick follow up on some of the TOKYO 00006954 003 OF 003 issues we discussed, he demonstrated a willingness to act as well as discuss matters. Shiozaki's quick embrace of a trilateral strategic dialogue with China was noteworthy and worth following up on in the coming weeks, particularly as discussions over a Quad arrangement with India and Australia evolve. The December 11 breakfast was the first in what should become a monthly series of meetings to review progress in our bilateral relationship. SCHIEFFER