ABE BUOYED BY WINS IN OCTOBER 22 BY-ELECTIONS

UNCLAS TOKYO 006188 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: ABE BUOYED BY WINS IN OCTOBER 22 BY-ELECTIONS REF: OSAKA 00576 ¶1. (U) Summary. Prime Minister SHINZO ABE is the big winner in October 22 by-elections in Osaka and Kanagawa, after LDP candidates swept both races by comfortable margins. The press is attributing the LDP win to Abe's personal popularity in the aftermath of his strong response to the DPRK nuclear test and summits with China and Korea, and predicts a strong boost to his domestic and foreign policy agenda. End summary. ¶2. (U) Candidates from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won Lower House by-elections in Kanagawa Prefecture and Osaka on October 22, in the first electoral tests for Prime Minister SHINZO ABE since he assumed office on September 26. In Kanagawa Prefecture's district 16, Zentaro Kamei garnered 109,864 votes, easily defeating opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) candidate Yuichi Goto, with 80,450. In Osaka's district 9, the LDP's Kenji Harada defeated the DPJ's Nobumori Otani 111,226 to 94,424. Both seats had been vacant since early summer 2006, following the deaths of the LDP incumbents. The Osaka seat had historically been held by the DPJ, but fell to the LDP in last September's Koizumi landslide. The ability to retain the seat was a big plus for Abe. ¶3. (SBU) According to Consulate General Osaka-Kobe contacts, the LDP succeeded by reinventing itself as a younger, reform-oriented party attractive to urban voters. The majority of voters in their 20s supported the LDP, as shown by NHK exit polls. The DPJ leadership visiting Osaka was unable to dispel the perception that the party had run out of dynamism and effective policies to deal with current domestic and international challenges facing Japan. ConGen media contacts reported that the DPJ was also hurt by scandals in Osaka involving organized labor, so unions were largely unable to mobilize support behind the DPJ. At the same time, voters identified the DPJ with organized labor. ¶4. (U) There were bright spots for the DPJ, however. In both races, the DPJ appears to have done well among unaffiliated, or "floating" voters. In Kanagawa, the DPJ's Goto pulled in 58.6 percent of the unaffiliated votes, compared to only 37.3 percent for the LDP's Kamei. In Osaka the spread was even wider, with the DPJ's Otani getting 60.7 percent to Harada's 28 percent. The DPJ was not expected to have a chance in Kanagawa, but had hoped to regain the seat �00A;it had historically held in Osaka. The DPJ appears to have been hurt by the overall low voter turnout, down more than 17 percent in Kanagawa and more than 15 percent in Osaka. ¶5. (SBU) Embassy Tokyo contacts and the press are portraying the election as a victory for Prime Minister Abe. The elections were viewed widely as a referendum on the new administration, and the double win is expected to provide a boost to Abe's domestic and foreign policy agenda. News reports following the elections noted the greater likelihood that ABE would now be able to gain passage of several key pieces of pending legislation, including the Basic Education Law and the bill to elevate the Japan Defense Agency to a Ministry, before the extraordinary Diet session ends on December 15. The victories should also provide additional momentum to ABE in tackling a number of foreign policy initiatives, including DPRK sanctions. ¶6. (SBU) On paper, Kanagawa 16 and Osaka 9 were two relatively minor by-elections in districts that were already controlled by the LDP. Kanagawa, the home turf of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has always been an LDP stronghold; the party holds 16 out of 18 electoral districts in the prefecture. As the son of the deceased incumbent, the 35-year-old Kamei also benefited from strong name recognition. Osaka, while traditionally DPJ territory, is also a stronghold of ruling coalition junior partner Komeito, which can be counted on to provide the organized vote from the Soka Gakkai religious group, which has many members in the Osaka area. ¶7. (SBU) Retaining the two seats in the Lower House was almost irrelevant statistically to the ruling coalition, which already held 458 seats to the DPJ's 195. Still, both parties pulled out all the stops, with personal appearances by top leaders, including ABE and Koizumi, door-to-door campaigning, and attempts to enlist the support of local organizations. The two campaigns seemed to be less about the issues, and more about personal popularity and strategies to get out the vote. In both contests, Komeito showed once again why it is so important to the LDP as a coalition partner, despite the small number of seats its members hold in the Diet. While neither LDP candidate succeeded in breaking the 90 percent support mark among LDP voters, both were able to take more than 95 percent of the Komeito vote. The DPJ leadership, meanwhile, blamed the losses on Abe's high popularity rates in the aftermath of the DPRK nuclear test. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The LDP victories in the October 22 by-elections are the latest in a long string of accomplishments for Abe, including his deft handling of the DPRK nuclear test, the summits with China and Korea, and the visit by Secretary Rice. The DPJ, coming off leader Ichiro Ozawa's illness and his lackluster performance in direct debates against ABE in the Diet on October 18, has yet to find a chink in Abe's armor. The two parties will face off again in gubernatorial campaigns in Fukushima on November 12 and Okinawa on November 19, followed by unified local and Upper House Diet elections in April and July of 2007. SCHIEFFER