DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/20/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 006125 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/20/06 INDEX: (1) Interview with University of Shizuoka Prof. Shunji Hiraiwa -- How will the US respond to DPRK's nuclear test? (Part 2- conclusion): Military action taken if nuclear weapons were on verge of proliferation (2) Editorial: Japan, US, ROK should rally unity and pressure North Korea (3) Editorial: Nuclear debate must be conducted freely (4) Editorial: Foreign Minister Aso's Diet reply inappropriate (5) Diet debate on regional contingency: DPJ's Ozawa stresses Japan needs principles to take part in int'l contributions; Premier vows to use Japan-US alliance for int'l cooperation (6) Lower House by-election in Osaka No. 9 district is battle to take the enemy's camp between LDP and Minshuto ARTICLES: (1) Interview with University of Shizuoka Prof. Shunji Hiraiwa -- How will the US respond to DPRK's nuclear test? (Part 2- conclusion): Military action taken if nuclear weapons were on verge of proliferation TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 29) (Abridged) October 13, 2006 Tsuyoshi Yamakawa, Yoichi Takeuchi SIPDIS -- What are your views on America's North Korea policy? Hiraiwa: "North Korea broke the 1994 Agreed Framework, a system calling on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs and in return for that, Washington agreed to provide heavy oil to the North. But there were some early indications that the US allowed the North Koreans leeway to break away from the arrangement. It seems to me that the Bush administration wanted to find ways to raise objections to the US-DPRK agreement signed by the Clinton administration. Following the Agreed Framework, the six-party talks were put in motion, but the upshot of that is what we are now seeing. My conclusion is that although the Agreed Framework aimed at bringing the North's nuclear programs under control, it failed to function." -- Why is the US unwilling to respond to direct talks with the North Koreans? "President Bush detests General Secretary Kim Jong Il, so he is reluctant to deal directly with him. This comes presumably from the president's strong Christian sense of justice; he finds Kim, whose ambition is to develop a nuclear arsenal while his people are starving to death, completely unacceptable. Mr. Bush also seems to dislike being held responsible unilaterally for the framework, which was agreed on between the US and North Korea alone during the Clinton administration. (Mr. Bush) surely feels his country has been deceived by North Korea. -- The US launched an armed attack against Iraq citing the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD),even though it was found afterwards that no WMD had existed in Iraq. The US, however, does TOKYO 00006125 002 OF 010 not strike North Korea, which declared it conducted a nuclear test. Isn't this a double standard? "The military balance in the Middle East affects Israel, a most important country for the US, and the Jewish lobby has a powerful influence in US politics. For the US, protecting Israel's interests is a top priority task. In contrast, when it comes to policy toward Asia, the US its relations with China and South Korea to worry about. If it were to take military action against the North, its relations with China and South Korea would collapse. (North Korea) is not that important for the US to take such a risk. "As a means of maintaining the military balance in East Asia, the US opted to have China take the lead and set up a framework for six-party talks. Washington wants to keep Beijing responsible to the end of this North Korea chapter, so it is trying to maintain the six-party framework. The consensus of the international community is to use heightened pressure to get North Korea back to the six-party talks and on the dialogue track." Effectiveness of Japan's solo sanctions questionable -- China and South Korea are vehemently opposing the use of armed force against North Korea. Why? "For China and South Korea, a weak North Korea is more of a threat than its aggressive nature. In other words, Pyongyang would never set off a nuclear weapon against China or South Korea, but if the military balance in East Asia were upset by a huge outflow of refugees in the wake of the collapse of North Korea, it would pose a threat to the security of China and South Korea. -- Do you think the US will rule out a military attack in the future, as well? "At this point, I don't think it will go that far. Should the North move to proliferate nuclear weapons, the case would grow similar to that of the Middle East. If Washington judges that nuclear weapons would be transferred to terrorists and that such would have a grave impact on the military balance in the Middle East centering on Israel, or if Washington judges that the US mainland will face a nuclear crisis, no doubt the US would use its military option." (2) Editorial: Japan, US, ROK should rally unity and pressure North Korea NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) October 20, 2006 North Korea's nuclear test has made concerned countries bustle about in a rush of international meetings. Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan (former foreign minister) visited North Korea, met with General Secretary Kim Jong Il to conveyed President Hu Jintao's views. Meanwhile, in Seoul, the foreign ministers of Japan, the United States, and South Korea confirmed in a meeting that the three countries would work together to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718 in order to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear programs. What is important now is for Japan, the US, and South Korea to line up and go along with China. In this regard, the trilateral foreign ministerial session between Japan, the US, and South Korea would be viewed as a step forward, but the goal is to have the North abandon TOKYO 00006125 003 OF 010 its nuclear programs. It must not be allowed at any price to make a half-baked compromise that could culminate in recognizing the North in effect as a nuclear power. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, after meeting with Prime Minister SHINZO ABE yesterday morning, headed for Seoul. The purpose of the trilateral foreign ministerial with Foreign Minister Taro Aso and South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Ban Ki Moon was first of all for the US to confirm it will meet the obligations to defend Japan and South Korea and also to have South Korea, which has adopted the engagement policy or the sunshine policy, share the sense of crisis with Japan and the US. Japan and South Korea are both allies of the US, and the two countries had held director-general-level talks for a while in the past, but after South Korea reacted sharply to former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill recently made a number of visits SIPDIS to Japan and South Korea. Prime Minister Abe's recent trip to South Korea, which helped improve relations with South Korea, and also the North's nuclear test have forced Japan, the US, and South Korea to reaffirm trilateral unity. The key lies in South Korea. An unconditional return by North Korea to the six-party talks is among the items called for by UNSC Resolution 1718. The resolution also demands that North Korea comprehensively abandon nuclear and missile development programs in an unconditional, verifiable, and irreversible manner. Japan and the US will not accept North Korea's return to the six-party talks unless it vows to do so. The two countries fear that the North will simply continue to play with the international community -- as it repeatedly did before -- by using its participation in the six-party talks as a diplomatic card, while maintaining its missile and nuclear technology. An unconditional return by the North to the six-party talks is a means to have it abandon its nuclear programs, but that is not the goal at all. This matter does not need to be confirmed between Japan and the US, because it is self-evident for the two countries, but it is essential for South Korea to go along with Japan and the US on this matter in order to resolve the current crisis. Ban, who is to take office as UN secretary-general, told Rice that he would assume a tough stance toward the North and suggested, for instance, a review of the Mount Kumgangsan tourism project, but President Roh Moo Hyun's way of thinking remains open to question. Rice will travel to China today. China, as evidenced by Tang's recent moves, is feeling a rising sense of crisis. Japan, the US, China, and South Korea need to further tighten the cordon around North Korea, involving Russia. (3) Editorial: Nuclear debate must be conducted freely SANKEI (Page 2) (Full) October 20, 2006 Prime Minister SHINZO ABE indicated that government and Liberal Democratic Party panels would never discuss the option of possessing nuclear weapons. He also said: "Individual lawmakers may discuss the matter. Freedom of speech is guaranteed in Japan." Facing the threat from North Korean, which has conducted a nuclear TOKYO 00006125 004 OF 010 test, Japan's peace and stability hinges on the United States' nuclear umbrella. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated: "The United States will fulfill its responsibility (of defending Japan under) the US-Japan Security Treaty. The United States has the will and the capability to meet the full range of its deterrent and security commitments to Japan." We welcome Rice's statement that declared at home and abroad that America's deterrent for the security of Japan is effective. But looking into its future, Japan still needs to discuss a variety of options. The idea of possessing nuclear weapons was actively discussed at the Diet in the past. In March 1959, Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi said before the Upper House Budget Committee: "As policy, Japan will not possess nuclear weapons, but under the Constitution, the country is allowed to posses nuclear weapons of the minimal level for self-defense." There has been no change in the government's position that possessing small nuclear weapons was constitutional. Japan subsequently adopted the three non-nuclear principles of not producing, possessing or allowing nuclear weapons on Japanese soil, closing the door to nuclear polity. Questions would naturally arise if Japan is safe as it is. In September, the Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS) chaired by former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone released a set of proposals urging Japan to remain firm as a non-nuclear power, make efforts to boost the NPT system, and study the nuclear issue in preparation for future international sea-change. The IIPS proposals apparently reflect public concern. LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa also called for earnest discussion on how Japan can counter North Korea without possessing nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that Nakagawa proposed it from the same context. Nakagawa's statement has drawn fire mostly from opposition party members, saying that discussing a nuclear option itself would cause the international community to harbor doubts about Japan. Freedom of speech must not be suppressed. Nuclear debate is not an absolute taboo. As long as freedom of speech is suppressed, Japan will not be able to grow into a normal country. (4) Editorial: Foreign Minister Aso's Diet reply inappropriate ASAHI (Page 3) (Full) October 20, 2006 How reckless and thoughtless was his remark! We find what Foreign Minister Taro Aso said in the Diet about Japan considering the possession of nuclear weapons to have been utterly unacceptable. Here is what he said: "When a neighboring country has come to possess (nuclear weapons),I think it is important to conduct a variety of discussions, as one idea." "Rather than staying ignorant, one option might be to consider TOKYO 00006125 005 OF 010 thoroughly whether we want to determine to possess (nuclear weapons) or not." Does he want to see Japan begin discussing the option of going nuclear? Does he want to be the one setting off the debate? The matter needs no prompting from him, for it is already being discussed freely. A nuclear deterrent is one of the central themes in debates on international politics. Needless to say, the predominant view among the Japanese public rejects a nuclear option. But some scholars believe that just discussing the option helps Japan check China, the United States, and other countries. But a foreign minister making remarks to give a boost to the nuclear debate is a different story altogether. The government's consistent stance has been to uphold the three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing, or allowing nuclear weapons on Japanese soil. Prime Minister SHINZO ABE himself said, "We are through with the matter." A mention of the nuclear debate by the country's top diplomat might make other countries speculate Japan would change its policy, sending out the wrong message to the international community. When LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa made a similar statement earlier, news whirled around the world. Amid growing global concern for such countries as Japan and South Korea going nuclear following North Korea as part of a "nuclear domino effect," there is every reason for such remarks to draw attention. Does Aso want to add fuel to global concern? We doubt the common sense of the foreign minister, who repeatedly has made controversial remarks on the one hand, while voicing support for the three non-nuclear rules on the other. The international community is united to apply pressure on North Korea to make it get rid of its nuclear programs in compliance with the UN resolution. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on a whirlwind tour of Japan, South Korea, and China. Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan traveled to Pyongyang to try to persuade North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to abandon nuclear ambitions. Earnest diplomatic efforts are underway. Japan's foreign minister must discuss why Japan does not possess nuclear weapons and why it is committed to nonproliferation rather than to make comments fueling the nuclear argument. Coming under criticism, Aso said, "I don't subscribe to the idea of suppressing freedom of speech." He must not shift the focus of the argument. The point here is that those remarks are inappropriate for persons in key positions in the government and the ruling coalition. It is not about freedom of speech. The government and the ruling coalition must not send out the wrong message when the rest of the world is trying to come up with convincing ideas to make North Korea abandon its nuclear ambitions. (5) Diet debate on regional contingency: DPJ's Ozawa stresses Japan needs principles to take part in int'l contributions; Premier vows to use Japan-US alliance for int'l cooperation TOKYO 00006125 006 OF 010 NIHON KEIZAI (Page 6) (Full) October 19, 2006 The following is a gist of one-on-one debate between party leaders in the Diet from yesterday's joint meeting of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors on Japan's fundamental policies. Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro Ozawa: North Korea's recent nuclear test tramples on the international community's desire for peace, and it's a challenging act. I have no objection at all to taking resolute, severe counteractions against such conduct. In my eyes, however, the government appears to be playing it by ear in a makeshift manner. Such a way of doing things is confusing the government's counteractions. What's the basic nature of action to be taken in response to situations that are anticipated in the Law Concerning Measures to Ensure Japan's Peace and Security in the Event of Situations in Areas Surrounding Japan (or the so-called "regional contingency law"),and what's the basic nature of action to be taken in conformity with the international community's consent? Prime Minister ABE (president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party): The "situations" stipulated in the regional contingency security law are defined as situations which, if left unattended, are feared to result in an armed attack against Japan, and the government has exemplified six cases. The regional contingency law stipulates how Japan-based on its bilateral alliance with the United States as the bedrock of Japan's foreign and security policies-will respond to such situations in areas surrounding Japan. At the same time, the United Nations (Security Council) has now adopted an enforceable resolution that incorporates severe steps against North Korea's challenging conduct. In order to have the resolution translated into action, Japan will cooperate in the international community. We're studying what Japan can do while teaming up and consulting with other countries concerned. We shouldn't think separately of the Japan-US alliance and the international community's efforts as two different things. Instead, we should utilize the Japan-US alliance in our cooperation with the international community. In the international community's concerted efforts, we need to have North Korea understand that the situation will go from bad to worse if that country fails to answer the international community's concern and takes even more provocative action. Japan is expected to work together with the international community while keeping in close touch with the United States, which is an ally of Japan. Ozawa: The regional contingency law anticipates emergencies in Japan. The UNSC resolution is for the international community to impose sanctions against conducts that disturb the peace of the international community. There's something difficult about the idea of applying the law-which is for emergencies in Japan-to the act of imposing sanctions in conformity with Article 41 of the United Nations Charter's Chapter 7. Some people may ask, "Then, what do you think we should do?" That's simple and clear. The government has only to make it a basic principle for Japan to participate in the international community's joint efforts. The government doesn't have anything like that principle, so the government will try to apply the notion of a regional contingency just because Japan was asked by the United States. The Japan-US alliance is important, of course. However, Japan and the United States alone cannot defend the global peace. The Japan-US Security Treaty has its own limit. Its TOKYO 00006125 007 OF 010 operational scope is limited to the Far East. But you may say that when America goes to deal with a problem on the other side of the globe, Japan will go together. That's not what the law means. The Constitution of Japan's idea is, if and when there is such a problem, each member of the United Nations is to comply with the United Nations' consent and participate in the international community's efforts to defend peace, as far as each member of the United Nations can do under its circumstances. The United Nations Charter also allows both the right of individual self-defense and the right of collective self-defense in each region as natural rights. If Japan and the United States come under attack before the United Nations makes a decision, then Japan and the United States will fight back to defend themselves. However, the security pact says Japan and the United States will terminate their joint efforts when the United Nations has made a decision. Then, the question is what role Japan will play in the international community. It's important to establish basic principles. You may want to say that's just because something happened or just because Japan was asked by America. Such a makeshift way of doing things will mislead the nation. Japan should also work together with the international community in its joint efforts if Japan is requested by the United Nations to do so. What is your view? Abe: You're just guessing my view. I've never said Japan will follow US forces to the other side of the globe. Also, I've never said Japan must go there just because Japan was asked by America. The United Nations (Security Council) unanimously adopted the resolution. Japan is one of the parties concerned and presides over the UN Security Council, and Japan is responsible for the adoption of this resolution. So I take it for granted that we should think about what Japan can do. Also, I take it for granted that we should cooperate closely with US forces since the United States is our ally. I'm not saying I will apply the regional contingency law at once. The situation is changing every moment. I'm thinking about what Japan should do on its part. North Korea fired missiles, and it's highly possible that North Korea conducted a nuclear test. In such a situation, I have a critical responsibility to protect the Japanese people's lives and assets. It's only natural to check into every possible law and ordinance on my responsibility. Ozawa: The United Nations Charter's Article 41 provides mandatory economic sanctions. It also provides sea inspections and land blockades that are mandatory. For example, they are not sending fishing boats for ship inspections. They are sending warships that will halt ships to inspect their cargoes on board. Ship inspections relating to the regional contingency law are to be conducted with consent obtained from ships to be inspected. But this is logically strange. If we think economic sanctions fall under the category of peaceful means, that's wrong. The government has to make it a basic rule for Japan to participate in operations based on the United Nations' decision, or Japan will only end up finding a way out of the situation each time. That's not good at all for the future of Japan. Abe: Japan's basic principles are very clear-cut. Japan initiated this resolution on its responsibility. So, in order to make it effective, it's only natural for Japan to do whatever it can within the bounds of its laws and ordinances. Each member of the United Nations is also required to do so. This doesn't mean we will choose to do nothing or that we will have to do something forcibly. It's important that Japan will act on its responsibility and play its role as far as possible. TOKYO 00006125 008 OF 010 Ozawa: You said Japan will do whatever it can within the bounds of its laws and ordinances. However, the biggest problem of Japan's national security is the Constitution. The Constitution will always crop up whenever there are various problems. I'm not telling you to do anything or whatsoever. We should let the people know if that's possible under the Constitution. (6) Lower House by-election in Osaka No. 9 district is battle to take the enemy's camp between LDP and Minshuto ASAHI (Page 4) (Slightly Abridged) October 20, 2006 Senior LDP member conducts "walk-in sale" with house map in hand By-elections will be conducted in the Osaka No. 9 and Kanagawa No. 16 districts to fill House of Representatives seats. All the more because the outcomes of the two elections will affect the management of Diet affairs, both the ruling and opposition parties have sent senior lawmakers to the two constituencies to support their respective candidates. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is doing its best to garner organized votes by relying on industrial associations and local assembly members, while the leading opposition party Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) is trying to gather votes by sending out party member to recruit supporters. The showdown between the LDP and Minshuto will come in the Osaka No. 9 constituency. On the afternoon of Oct. 15, a senior LDP lawmaker was walking through shopkeepers row in the Osaka No. 9 electoral district. The lawmaker is a former cabinet member who has no interest in Osaka. He was looking for the house of the head of an association of shop owners holding a street map in hand. The party's election taskforce called such a way of election campaigning a "walk-in sale." Around the same time, Prime Minister SHINZO Abe, using his strong character in the election, was speaking passionately before an audience of about 5,000. Following Abe, New Komeito Chief Representative Akihiro Ota called out to the audience, saying, "Hello to all of you who have long supported the New Komeito!" Small flags were waved like ripples through the crowd. A senior LDP Election Bureau official, who was mingling in the crowd, detected that most of the audience were New Komeito supporters. He departed from the scene before ABE finished his speech. Four days before ABE and Ota came to Osaka to stump, LDP Election Bureau chief Yoshio Yatsu visited companies listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and subcontractors in the No. 9 district. The reason was that leading companies do not necessarily support the LDP. At Kansai Electric Power Co., Yatsu met with its adviser Yoshihisa Akiyama, who serves also chairman of the Kansai Economic Federation. Yatsu asked him for cooperation. Akiyama then gave his promise, saying, "I will call at KEF member companies in the electoral district." At a hotel in Ibaragi City on Oct. 18, Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP caucus in the House of Councillors, and 24 LDP Upper House members gave a pep talk to about 500 individuals connected with LDP support groups, including construction, agriculture, commerce and TOKYO 00006125 009 OF 010 industry, and nursing care. The 500 immediately headed to the No. 9 constituency. One senior LDP member said: "Mr. Ozawa also often visits companies and organizations. This election is like a battle to take the enemy's camp. Ozawa carries out election campaign on own way; Asks LDP support organizations for recommendation Minshuto's election strategy is similar to the LDP's. At a meeting of an association of restaurants in Minoh City, a senior association member said: "There are Minshuto supporters in our association. I think we can give our recommendation to (Minshuto candidate)." After consulting on the matter, the association decided to recommend both candidates on the LDP and Minshuto tickets. A source familiar with the association was surprised at the result of the discussion, saying, "We have supported the LDP for a long time, but we were able to arrive at this decision smoothly for the first time." Ozawa has personally led the effort to slice down the number of LDP support groups. After appearing on a television program in Osaka on Aug. 5, Ozawa called on the Minshuto candidate-to-be at his office to hear from office staff their election strategy. He also secretly visited Osaka one month later to meet the heads of municipal assemblies and assembly members. In order to carry out the Ozawa-style election strategy, Minshuto leadership ordered its members to send letters asking recommendations to organizations to which the main opposition party had never before sought such support. The association in Minoh City is one such organization. In the No.9 district, there are a number of subcontractors of leading companies, including Daihatsu Motor Co., headquartered in Ikeda City, related offices and factories. After calling on Daihatsu labor union officials, Ozawa met on the 11th with Rengo (Japan Trade Unions Confederation) Osaka Chairman Fumio Ito at a hotel in Ibaragi City. Ozawa than urged some 20 local assembly members to support the campaign, with his mind the April Lower House by-election in the Chiba No. 7 constituency, which his party won even though it was said that it would be difficult for its candidate to win. On the night of Oct, 18 at a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo, Ozawa told 30 Minshuto Upper House members, who are serving in their first-term in the Diet: "I want to win the by-elections in order to bring about a political change. I will do my best, so I want you to do your best, as well." He is expected to give a street corner speech in Ibaragi City along with Acting President Naoto Kan and Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama on the evening of Oct. 20. Candidates for the Lower House by-election for Osaka No. 9 district Name Age Party Career Kenji Harada 58 LDP Ex-Osaka prefectural assembly member Nobumori Otani 43 Minshuto Minshuto Osaka chapter TOKYO 00006125 010 OF 010 executive board member Kuniaki Fujiki 48 JCP Lawyer SCHIEFFER