Identifier
Created
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Origin
06TOKYO6042
2006-10-17 08:08:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/17/06

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 006042 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/17/06


INDEX:

(1) US Secretary of State Rice issues strong warning to North Korea:
"If there is another nuclear test, it will be further isolated"

(2) Growing criticism of Nakagawa's nuclear argument may harm Abe
administration

(3) Editorial: Thoughtless remark on nuclear weapons by LDP policy
chief Nakagawa

(4) Interview on North Korea's nuclear test: Former LDP Vice
President Taku Yamasaki calls for realization of US-DPRK talks
instead of sanctions

(5) North Korea with it nuclear test now laughing at peace-senile
Japan

(6) Minshuto issues statement welcoming UN resolution on sanctions
against North Korea

(7) Editorial: Abe administration's solid start merits appreciation

(8) Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to assume
chairmanship of the Mori faction possibly next week

(9) Okinawa has worst record in country for drunk driving

ARTICLES:

(1) US Secretary of State Rice issues strong warning to North Korea:
"If there is another nuclear test, it will be further isolated"

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Full)
Eve., October 17, 2006

By Yasuhisa Oguri in Washington

Prior to her visits to Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, and
Russia, US Secretary of State Rice gave a press conference on the
16th. In it, she gave a strong warning to North Korea, now that the
view has emerged that it is preparing for a second nuclear test: "We
are continuing to watch the situation, and are consulting other
countries on this matter. (If it carries out another nuclear test,)
North Korea will find itself even more isolated than ever."

Secretary Rice pointed out that the purpose of her overseas travel

SIPDIS
was "to consult on how to build a practical framework for detecting
and monitoring dangerous materials in the region." With North
Korea's nuclear testing in mind, she indicated her intention to
suggest setting up a body to stop the transfer of nuclear materials
and sound out each country about such.

On the other hand, she also commented on China's next move following
the United Nations Security Council's adoption of a sanctions
resolution against North Korea: "I am not worried about China not
carrying out its responsibility," indicating her view that China
would play out its role.

Secretary Rice also stressed that if North Korea were to bring about

SIPDIS
an unforeseen contingency, "The United States has the will and the
capability to fully carry out its security responsibilities toward
its allies South Korea and Japan." She urged both countries: "Just

TOKYO 00006042 002 OF 011


are they are commonly blessed with safety, they also have the
obligation to share responsibilities."

(2) Growing criticism of Nakagawa's nuclear argument may harm Abe
administration

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
October 17, 2006

Liberal Democratic Party Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi
Nakagawa's remarks calling for discussion on possessing nuclear
weapons in reaction to North Korea's declared nuclear test have
created a sensation. The statement has drawn fire from the
government and the ruling coalition, not to mention opposition
parties. The statement is also expected to stir criticism from other
countries, as well. The Nakagawa remarks might dampen the high
popularity of the Abe administration that has just got off to a
start.

Possible harmful effect on by-elections

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met last evening with Communist Party of
China (CPC) International Department head Wang Jiarui, now visiting
Japan to attend an exchange meeting between the CPC and Japan's
ruling parties. Asked by Wang about the government's stance toward
the three non-nuclear principles, Abe said matter-of-factly, "There
is no need to worry about it."

Desperate to minimize the impact of the Nakagawa statement, Chief
Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki also said: "The government will
maintain the three principles. The government's policy will not
waver."

New Komeito Representative Akihiro Ota also brushed aside Nakagawa's
remarks, saying to reporters yesterday: "There is no need to discuss
(the idea of possessing nuclear weapons)." A senior LDP lawmaker who
has previously served as defense chief also took this view: "Nuclear
armament can be discussed after Japan leaves the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. The option, however, might end up
destroying the country's economy." A senior Upper House member also
disregarded the Nakagawa statement, noting, "It is inconceivable for
Japan to possess nuclear weapons." Abe and Nakagawa, both
conservative, have worked closely in persuing projects, including a
group of junior lawmakers to consider Japan's future and history
education. The appointment of Nakagawa as the party's policy chief
seems to reflect Abe's strong wishes. The controversial remarks by
Nakagawa -- an LDP executive and Abe's longtime ally -- could
traumatize the Abe administration.

Meanwhile, Nakagawa indicated to reporters yesterday that he would
not retract his controversial remarks, explaining: "I have always
advocated opposition to going nuclear. Discussing (the option of
going nuclear) does not conflict with observing the three
non-nuclear rules."

A government source thinks Nakagawa made the controversial remarks
in part to demonstrate Japan's posture of not regarding the nuclear
option as a taboo in dealing with North Korea, given that country's
declaration of possessing nuclear weapons. People of Japan, the only
country to have suffered nuclear attacks, are quick to respond
negatively to discussion on possessing nuclear weapons. Some are
voicing fear of the Nakagawa statement adversely affecting the Oct.
22 Lower House by-elections.

TOKYO 00006042 003 OF 011



Such countries as the United States and China are keenly alarmed at
North Korean's nuclear test throwing East Asia's strategy off
balance and prompting Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to go nuclear
one after another.

Behind the controversial statement seems to lie Nakagawa's intention
to press China, a strong ally of North Korea, to wield significant
influence over Pyongyang. But his remarks may evoke doubts not only
in China but also the United States.

Main points in Nakagawa's remarks

7 There could be an argument that possession of nuclear weapons
diminishes the likelihood of being attacked as we could fight back
in such an event.

7 The country will maintain the three non-nuclear principles, but
discussion must be conducted. There is a need to discuss thoroughly
whether or not one of the important postwar promises must be
reviewed.

7 At present, Japan has the three non-nuclear rules. But discussion
must be conducted thoroughly because calls for possessing nuclear
weapons would arise naturally in view of the situations in areas
surrounding Japan.

(3) Editorial: Thoughtless remark on nuclear weapons by LDP policy
chief Nakagawa

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Shoichi Nakagawa, chair of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Policy
Research Council, stated on Oct. 15 that: "Debate is needed"
regarding the question of whether Japan should possess nuclear
armaments. But yesterday, he portrayed himself as " an opponent to
Japan having nuclear arms." Nakagawa's controversial remark about
Japan considering a nuclear option cropped up at a time when the
international community is about to act together against North
Korea's nuclear ambitions, so the contents of his statement not only
lacked good judgment, it also could cause neighboring countries to
harbor suspicions and fear about Japan's intentions.

Specifically, Nakagawa stated on a TV program on Oct. 15 that
although this was not his own opinion, "There is an argument calling
on Japan to possess nuclear weapons as one option to prevent other
countries from committing aggression against our country. This issue
should be debated extensively." Even after the TV program ended,
Nakagawa continued to tell reporters: "(Japan) is severely shackled
by the three nonnuclear principles. I'm not saying this (nuclear
armament) should be done immediately." He went on, "Some take the
view that given the circumstances around Japan, it is only natural
for Japan to have nuclear weapons."

In connection with North Korea's nuclear test, a segment of the
Western press has expressed concern about the possibility of Japan
going nuclear. Perhaps aware of that concern, Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe made it clear, as in his Diet replies, that Japan would firmly
uphold the three nonnuclear principles. Despite this, Nakagawa's
controversial remark could be taken by other countries, including
China and South Korea, as the "armor worn beneath the clothes," and
it could raise doubts about Japan among other countries.

TOKYO 00006042 004 OF 011



A number of conservative intellectuals take the view that it is
strange to seal off debate about such a question. But a senior
ruling party member's remark has much more weight than that of an
ordinary citizen. In military context, Japan has generally reached
the conclusion that a nuclear option is not a rational idea.

If Japan were to maintain a nuclear deterrent, it would have to have
a capability of countering a second attack. Nuclear-tipped missiles
to be used against the second strike need to be concealed. But Japan
has no sites to do so. One idea may be to install them in a
submarine, but facilities now used by the Maritime Self-Defense
Force (MSDF) are limited, so they are easily detectable.

It is unlikely that any country in the world would welcome Japan's
opting for a nuclear solution. In that context, if Japan were to
develop its own nuclear arms, it would be invite being isolated from
the international community, just as North Korea now experiences.
Nakagawa's argument that "some are beginning to insist that no doubt
Japan should have it, given the circumstances around Japan" comes
from the same logic that North Korea is now using.

There is a view that debating a nuclear option will enhance
deterrence, and eventually induce United States to turn its eye more
toward Japan. This thinking, too, stems from the same logic North
Korea uses: that by behaving like a "bad boy," it is drawing the
attention of the US and other countries, thus helping to ensure its
own security.

(4) Interview on North Korea's nuclear test: Former LDP Vice
President Taku Yamasaki calls for realization of US-DPRK talks
instead of sanctions

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Interviewer: Tetsuya Furuta

-- Do you think the United Nations' latest sanction resolution
against North Korea will be effective?

Yamasaki: "Unless North Korea shifts its attitude, (ship)
inspections will be carried out mostly by the United States. The
inspections would be significant in terms of cutting off sea lanes,
even though China and Russia won't conduct them."

-- The government and the ruling coalition are considering
implementing own ship inspections?

"I think Japan should do what it can do within the purview of the
following three premises: the situation is recognized as a situation
in areas surrounding Japan (shuhen jitaI or a contingency) (as
stated in the Law on a Situation in the Areas Surrounding Japan);
consent is obtained (from a country to which a ship belongs); and
warning shots are not allowed. Perhaps US forces expect Japan to
offer logistic support, such as refueling and water supplying. A
number of arguments suggest Japan should be the first to be
mobilized and do something, but that is wrong. Japan can't do so nor
should it do so."

-- Do you think it is possible under the UN resolution this time to
see the current situation as a contingency in areas surrounding
Japan as described in the law?

TOKYO 00006042 005 OF 011



"By somehow stretching the law, it is possible to recognize it as a
situation in areas surrounding Japan, but I wonder whether it is
necessary for Japan to do such a thing in order to conduct own ship
inspections. I think Japan should do what it can in response to
America's request. The first thing to do is to hold consultations
with the US in a cool-headed manner."

-- The Abe administration is proceeding in the belief that the
current situation can be recognized as a situation in areas
surrounding Japan.

"If the current situation is recognized as a situation in areas
surrounding Japan, that means Japan recognizes the existence of a
contingency on the Korean Peninsula. But I don't think it is a good
policy to stretch the law to recognize a contingency. The US does
not regard it as a contingency in the Far East, either. Why is Japan
moving in that direction? In terms of the prime minister's
conventional assertion that 'abduction is more important than
nuclear programs among the North Korean issues,' the current move is
most undesirable. In the event of an emergency, (abductees) cannot
return home safely."

-- Do you think the government and the ruling parties are being too
hasty?

"Yes, indeed. If they remain as they are, they cannot achieve the
two goals of denuclearizing the peninsula and resolving the
abduction issue."

-- What do you think is a way to make the peninsula a nuclear free
zone?

"First, Japan should work on the US to hold bilateral talks with the
DPRK. But Japan has done nothing since former Prime Minister Koizumi
visited (the US) in June. (The government of Japan) should ask (the
US) to hold talks with North Korea, but it is urging it instead to
step up sanctions. Such being the case, (a military solution) could
arise; a war would be unavoidable."

-- Some in the ruling parties assert that it is all right to discuss
a nuclear option for Japan.

"That is out of the question. It's OK if commentators or critics
debate the issue, but it is bad for those who are responsible for
political affairs to discuss it. Because they would mislead the
public."

(5) North Korea with it nuclear test now laughing at peace-senile
Japan

SANKEI (Page 17) (Full)
October 13, 2006

Tadae Takubo, visiting professor at Kyorin University

I wonder if this kind of opinion comes from a perception gap. This
country's press editorials-with a few exceptions-are really lukewarm
(over North Korea's recent nuclear test). This time around, some
anti-US segments of the media are suddenly beginning to insist on
using the Japan-US alliance as a deterrent. That's ridiculous. Even
more annoying, one anti-US newspaper emphasized in its editorial
that Japan would have to soften the tensions in a careful manner so

TOKYO 00006042 006 OF 011


that North Korea will not come out with any reckless act on the
strength of its nuclear weapons. That's really embarrassing.

North Korea, which hates Japan, has now joined the club as the
eighth nuclear power. This is a cold fact about the way realpolitik
actually is in the international arena. North Korea will soon target
its arsenal of nuclear-warhead-tipped missiles at Japan. This has
further spurred the nuclear nonproliferation regime's collapse. The
six-party talks, which were supposed to have blocked North Korea
from going nuclear, were only used as a tool for North Korea to
attain its goal to carry out nuclear testing. Even if North Korea
returns to the six-party talks, the other five countries would face
further difficulties in their efforts on the diplomatic front to
urge North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions. I suppose South
Korean President Roh Moo Hyun almost admits that fact now. Seoul's
"sunshine policy," which seemed to contain something meaningful, was
no more than a chimera. In my view, the balance of power in East
Asia has drastically changed.

Meanwhile, there was a curious happening in Okinawa at the same time
that North Korea carried out its nuclear test. A freighter carrying
Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) ground-to-air intercept
missiles, which were soon to be deployed to the US Kadena Air Base
in Okinawa Prefecture as a missile defense (MD) system, was held up
for a while in the middle of Kin Bay. The local media played up this
fact. They don't seem to care about what crisis all of Japan
including Okinawa was facing. However, I wonder if we can just laugh
it off. I think this kind of problem epitomizes Japan.

Unashamedly enough, Japan, in its postwar constitution, declared
"the justice and faith of the peace-loving peoples of the world."
The government, in its interpretation thereof, has taken the
position that Japan is vested with the right to collective
self-defense but is not allowed to exercise it. Furthermore, Japan
has taken a defense-only posture and avowed its "three nonnuclear"
principles (of not possessing, producing or allowing nuclear weapons
into Japan). These policies are the backbones of Japan in its
postwar era. Need I say that they have now all collapsed before
North Korea's nuclear test? Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently
visited Beijing, where he made a statement to the following effect
in line with Prime Minister Murayama's August 1995 statement: "Japan
in the 60 postwar years stands on its deep self-reflection on the
fact that it once inflicted severe damage and left scars on the
peoples of countries in Asia." This statement, however, sounds empty
before Pyongyang's loud laugh.

What can Japan do? Japan should work together with the United States
to have the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution in
line with Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter and take effective
sanction measures at the earliest possible date. At the same time,
Japan should implement all possible sanctions that might be still
left.

Whether China will agree to impose sanctions on North Korea or
impose conditions will have a meaning. China itself is probably well
aware that this will be a touchstone for whether it can become a
responsible stakeholder and a player in maintaining international
order.

I hope that international sanctions will make North Korea decide to
give up its nuclear ambitions. If we cannot hope for it, then I
presume that the dynasty of Kim Jong Il would be overthrown from
within itself.

TOKYO 00006042 007 OF 011



The Kim dynasty reminds me of Romania's Ceausescu, who was supposed
to have completely placed his military under his control but
encountered its unexpected defection in a riot raised by a small
number of Hungarian residents in 1989. He met with a tragic end.
However, I must admit that a view of this kind contains wishful
thinking.

Some people are saying Japan would go nuclear and cause a chain
reaction to Taiwan. This, they say, would bring about a "nuclear
domino phenomenon." Forty years ago, Saburo Hayashi, a Mainichi
Shimbun correspondent to Paris, interviewed Gen. Pierre Galois, who
was an aide to President DeGaulle.

In the interview, Gen. Galois said France went nuclear in the cause
of coping with the military threat of the Soviet Union. At the same
time, however, the general came up with a weird forecast, saying
countries in the Far East, stipulated by China's acquisition of
nuclear weapons, would also face up to a similar problem in the
future. In those days, my eyes were riveted on the Soviet threat, so
I didn't believe his outlook. But now that we are facing North
Korea's nuclear weapons, I cannot suppress a grunt of admiration.

However, the circumstances of France in those days are quite
different from the position of Japan today. Should the greater part
of Japan incline to go nuclear, everybody could imagine how
difficult it is for the world's second biggest economic power to
join the nuclear club.

The moment DeGaulle had nuclear weapons in his hands, he bragged
that he was set free from bonds with America. Japan, as an ally of
the United States, is under the nuclear umbrella of Uncle Sam.
Japan's choosing to follow in the footsteps of DeGaulle will touch
the alliance's subtle point. In point of fact, it would be
impossible for Japan to go nuclear at present.

However, would it be all right to deprive Japan of all possible
options at our own discretion in our age? Japan must be prepared at
least to defend itself on its own if and when it is at a moment of
truth, or Japan cannot be powerful enough in its action.

(6) Minshuto issues statement welcoming UN resolution on sanctions
against North Korea

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
October 16, 2006

Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) Policy Research Council
Chairman Takeaki Matsumoto yesterday issued a statement welcoming
the adoption by the United Nations of a resolution calling for
sanctions against North Korea. It noted, "We highly evaluate that
the UN is eager to perform its initial function." Asked in an Asahi
TV program the same day about the party's view about ship
inspections as stipulated in the resolution, Matsumoto only replied,
"Japan has to do what it can do."

In her party's statement, Social Democratic Party head Mizuho
Fukushima praised the resolution, but regarding ship inspections,
she said, "Since such act might lead to battle action, we must be
cautious about implementing the measure." Speaking before reporters
in Tokyo yesterday, Policy Council Chairman Tomoko Abe indicated a
negative view about recognizing a "regional contingency." The
recognition is a precondition for the Maritime Self-Defense Force to

TOKYO 00006042 008 OF 011


be allowed to join ship inspections. Abe said, "If the current state
is recognized as a regional contingency, an expanded interpretation
may be frequently applied in the future."

In an Asahi TV program the same day, Japanese Communist Party Policy
Committee Chairman Akira Koike said: "The state of a wartime fire
raging on the opposite shore is being defined as a regional
contingency. The current state cannot be recognized as a
contingency."

(7) Editorial: Abe administration's solid start merits appreciation

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
October 14, 2006

Meetings at the budget committees of both chambers ended yesterday.
In the meetings, Abe engaged in full-fledged Diet debate as the
prime minister for the first time. Immediately after assuming
office, Abe has resumed summit meetings with Chinese and South
Korean leaders. He also faced an unexpected development in the form
of North Korea's nuclear test. He seems to have so far steadily
managed his government, and we would like to give him credit.

What is noteworthy is that Abe changed his perception of Japan's
wartime history before his meetings with the Chinese and South
Korean leaders.

Before assuming the premiership, Abe took a negative view about the
statement in 1995 in which Prime Minister Murayama expressed an
apology for Japan's colonial rule and aggression, as well as the
statement issued by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kono in 1993 admitting
the Imperial Japanese Army's involvement in the comfort-women issue.
In Diet deliberations, Abe revealed that his government would honor
the two statements. The prime minister, by making such statements,
succeeded in putting an end to the thorny issue of historical views,
which some observers had viewed as a bottleneck for his
administration. The environment was thus set for meetings with the
Chinese and South Korean leaders.

There must have been on hand intelligence that North Korea would
soon conduct a nuclear test. Based on such analysis, Abe took a
strategic stance, judging that getting out of step with these two
countries would be playing right into North Korea's hands.

The prime minister also said that Japan has no nuclear ambitions and
will uphold the three non-nuclear principles. Keeping in mind the
emergence in the United States of the speculation that Japan might
consider the nuclear option in the wake of North Korea's nuclear
test, Abe make took a quick response measure.

The prime minister also gave this Diet reply: "Some might complain
that my remarks (on historical views and the nation's nuclear
option) are contradictory to what I said before. I meekly accept the
criticism." Those expecting Abe to demonstrate his own policy
imprint have already express dissatisfaction with his policy switch.
On Oct. 13, ahead of the United Nations Security Council's adoption
of a resolution calling for sanctions against North Korea, Japan in
a cabinet meeting adopted its own sanctions against North Korea.
Some observers analyze that this move represent the prime minister's
willingness to demonstrate that he is a "fighting prime minister."

Some expect that Abe might begin to express his own stock views
after riding through the House of Councillors election next summer.

TOKYO 00006042 009 OF 011


But in various opinion polls, the prime minister's stance toward
China and South Korea has won high support rates. As long as he
continues to listen to the public's views, Abe is unlikely to change
his current stance in principle.

Turning to domestic affairs, the Education Revitalization Council,
set up under the instruction of Prime Minister Abe, includes a
variety of members including conservatives, moderates, and liberals.
Some anticipated that only those who have views close to the prime
minister's might be selected. But he gave consideration to a
well-balanced lineup.

Before the Abe administration was launched, the Mainichi Shimbun
encouraged the prime minister not to be overly eager and to be
flexible, although some other papers highlighted the danger of a
"hawkish prime minister." To counter the opposition camp, including
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan),it is natural for the prime
minister to opt for widening the wing without exclusively devoting
himself to the rightwing. The opposition side might have the feeling
that the prime minister gave it the dodge. It is now urged to revamp
its strategy.

The prime minister will inevitably continue to face a crucial moment
for a whole. Tensions over the North Korea issue are expected to run
higher following the adoption by the United Nations of a resolution
against that nation. We hope Prime Minister Abe will continue to be
steady and flexible as he did when his government got off to a
start.

(8) Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to assume
chairmanship of the Mori faction possibly next week

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who chairs the Mori faction in
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),firmed up his intention on Oct.
16 to resign his post in the near future. Accompanying that
decision, coordination is going forward in the faction to name as
the next chairman former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, who is
now secretary general of the faction. The formal decision to appoint
him may come as early as next week,

Mori, who served as chairman for five years under the Koizumi
administration, hinted at the possibility of his retiring when he
said at a meeting of the faction Sept. 21, following the selection
of Shinzo Abe (of the same faction) as LDP president: "My role in
the faction is generally over." He was asked by Yasuo Fukuda and
other senior faction leaders to stay on but did not respond.

Mori yesterday told his aides: "From the start, I always thought
that I would resign as chairman once the LDP presidential election
was over. My feeling remains the same as before. No matter how you
press me to stay, I won't change my mind." He stressed that he would
not change his view about resigning the post. The successor,
Machimura, has let it be known to several faction officials that he
desired the post. Coordination will now begin to appoint him to the
chairman's position. The idea has been floating of making Mori the
honorary chairman of the faction.

(9) Okinawa has worst record in country for drunk driving

YOMIURI (Page 13) (Full)

TOKYO 00006042 010 OF 011


October 7, 2006

Does drunk driving vary based on the locality? The Yomiuri Shimbun
calculated the number of crackdowns on drunk driving per 100,000
licensed drivers based on the National Police Agency's released data
about the number of drunk driving cases and the population of
licensed drivers throughout the country.

Looking at last year's worst offenders, Okinawa Prefecture by far
overwhelmed all other prefectures with 1,123 cases (per 100,000
licensed drivers),followed by Yamanashi Prefecture and Mie
Prefecture. Furthermore, both Kochi Prefecture and Akita
Prefecture-where people were found to be spending much more money on
alcoholic drinks than other prefectures, according to the Ministry
of Internal Affairs and Communications' survey of household
expenses-ranked high on the prefectural list of offenders.
Meanwhile, Gifu Prefecture was the lowest of all prefectures with
107 cases. Nara Prefecture and Fukui Prefecture were also less than
10% of the record set by Okinawa Prefecture.

In 2001, the criminal code was revised with the establishment of
charges against dangerous driving resulting in death or injury.
After that, the total number of nationwide cases of arrests for
drunk driving decreased from 175,730 in 2003 to 140,873 last year.
During that time, however, the annual number of arrests in
crackdowns on drunk driving increased from 8,074 to 9,285 in Okinawa
Prefecture, likewise up from 1,692 to 2,275 in Yamanashi Prefecture
and up from 3,160 to 3,243 in Mie Prefecture. The figures show that
the introduction of severe penalties has had no effect in these
prefectures.

In the Okinawa prefectural police's survey of about 2,500 persons
charged with drunken driving, three out of every four persons
"didn't think of drinking at first." However, one out of every four
persons answered that they had "thought about drinking from the
beginning." There were also about 400 violators who had driven home
drunk, even though they only lived within a radius of one kilometer
from where they drank. "Okinawa's sunset is late when compared with
the mainland, and people have many chances to drink away from their
homes," says an official of the traffic planning division at the
Okinawa Prefectural Police Headquarters. "That's probably why they
have a weak feeling of guilt about drinking and driving," the
official added.

The Tokyo-based Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data
Analysis (ITARDA) attributes drunk driving in part to the degree of
development of public transportation, such as railways and buses.
The worst five includes Wakayama Prefecture and Oita Prefecture --
prefectures that neighbor big cities -- Yamanashi Prefecture and Mie
Prefecture. On the contrary, Tokyo and certain other prefectures
like Kanagawa Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, and Kyoto Prefecture,
which are highly urbanized areas with various public transportation
networks, ranked low on the list.

Such regional disparities, however, should take into account such
likely factors as local climates and age structures, in addition to
transportation networks and geographic conditions.

Police arrests for drunk driving in 2005 ASTERISK
High Low
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 006042

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/17/06


INDEX:

(1) US Secretary of State Rice issues strong warning to North Korea:
"If there is another nuclear test, it will be further isolated"

(2) Growing criticism of Nakagawa's nuclear argument may harm Abe
administration

(3) Editorial: Thoughtless remark on nuclear weapons by LDP policy
chief Nakagawa

(4) Interview on North Korea's nuclear test: Former LDP Vice
President Taku Yamasaki calls for realization of US-DPRK talks
instead of sanctions

(5) North Korea with it nuclear test now laughing at peace-senile
Japan

(6) Minshuto issues statement welcoming UN resolution on sanctions
against North Korea

(7) Editorial: Abe administration's solid start merits appreciation

(8) Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to assume
chairmanship of the Mori faction possibly next week

(9) Okinawa has worst record in country for drunk driving

ARTICLES:

(1) US Secretary of State Rice issues strong warning to North Korea:
"If there is another nuclear test, it will be further isolated"

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Full)
Eve., October 17, 2006

By Yasuhisa Oguri in Washington

Prior to her visits to Japan, the Republic of Korea, China, and
Russia, US Secretary of State Rice gave a press conference on the
16th. In it, she gave a strong warning to North Korea, now that the
view has emerged that it is preparing for a second nuclear test: "We
are continuing to watch the situation, and are consulting other
countries on this matter. (If it carries out another nuclear test,)
North Korea will find itself even more isolated than ever."

Secretary Rice pointed out that the purpose of her overseas travel

SIPDIS
was "to consult on how to build a practical framework for detecting
and monitoring dangerous materials in the region." With North
Korea's nuclear testing in mind, she indicated her intention to
suggest setting up a body to stop the transfer of nuclear materials
and sound out each country about such.

On the other hand, she also commented on China's next move following
the United Nations Security Council's adoption of a sanctions
resolution against North Korea: "I am not worried about China not
carrying out its responsibility," indicating her view that China

would play out its role.

Secretary Rice also stressed that if North Korea were to bring about

SIPDIS
an unforeseen contingency, "The United States has the will and the
capability to fully carry out its security responsibilities toward
its allies South Korea and Japan." She urged both countries: "Just

TOKYO 00006042 002 OF 011


are they are commonly blessed with safety, they also have the
obligation to share responsibilities."

(2) Growing criticism of Nakagawa's nuclear argument may harm Abe
administration

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
October 17, 2006

Liberal Democratic Party Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi
Nakagawa's remarks calling for discussion on possessing nuclear
weapons in reaction to North Korea's declared nuclear test have
created a sensation. The statement has drawn fire from the
government and the ruling coalition, not to mention opposition
parties. The statement is also expected to stir criticism from other
countries, as well. The Nakagawa remarks might dampen the high
popularity of the Abe administration that has just got off to a
start.

Possible harmful effect on by-elections

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met last evening with Communist Party of
China (CPC) International Department head Wang Jiarui, now visiting
Japan to attend an exchange meeting between the CPC and Japan's
ruling parties. Asked by Wang about the government's stance toward
the three non-nuclear principles, Abe said matter-of-factly, "There
is no need to worry about it."

Desperate to minimize the impact of the Nakagawa statement, Chief
Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki also said: "The government will
maintain the three principles. The government's policy will not
waver."

New Komeito Representative Akihiro Ota also brushed aside Nakagawa's
remarks, saying to reporters yesterday: "There is no need to discuss
(the idea of possessing nuclear weapons)." A senior LDP lawmaker who
has previously served as defense chief also took this view: "Nuclear
armament can be discussed after Japan leaves the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. The option, however, might end up
destroying the country's economy." A senior Upper House member also
disregarded the Nakagawa statement, noting, "It is inconceivable for
Japan to possess nuclear weapons." Abe and Nakagawa, both
conservative, have worked closely in persuing projects, including a
group of junior lawmakers to consider Japan's future and history
education. The appointment of Nakagawa as the party's policy chief
seems to reflect Abe's strong wishes. The controversial remarks by
Nakagawa -- an LDP executive and Abe's longtime ally -- could
traumatize the Abe administration.

Meanwhile, Nakagawa indicated to reporters yesterday that he would
not retract his controversial remarks, explaining: "I have always
advocated opposition to going nuclear. Discussing (the option of
going nuclear) does not conflict with observing the three
non-nuclear rules."

A government source thinks Nakagawa made the controversial remarks
in part to demonstrate Japan's posture of not regarding the nuclear
option as a taboo in dealing with North Korea, given that country's
declaration of possessing nuclear weapons. People of Japan, the only
country to have suffered nuclear attacks, are quick to respond
negatively to discussion on possessing nuclear weapons. Some are
voicing fear of the Nakagawa statement adversely affecting the Oct.
22 Lower House by-elections.

TOKYO 00006042 003 OF 011



Such countries as the United States and China are keenly alarmed at
North Korean's nuclear test throwing East Asia's strategy off
balance and prompting Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to go nuclear
one after another.

Behind the controversial statement seems to lie Nakagawa's intention
to press China, a strong ally of North Korea, to wield significant
influence over Pyongyang. But his remarks may evoke doubts not only
in China but also the United States.

Main points in Nakagawa's remarks

7 There could be an argument that possession of nuclear weapons
diminishes the likelihood of being attacked as we could fight back
in such an event.

7 The country will maintain the three non-nuclear principles, but
discussion must be conducted. There is a need to discuss thoroughly
whether or not one of the important postwar promises must be
reviewed.

7 At present, Japan has the three non-nuclear rules. But discussion
must be conducted thoroughly because calls for possessing nuclear
weapons would arise naturally in view of the situations in areas
surrounding Japan.

(3) Editorial: Thoughtless remark on nuclear weapons by LDP policy
chief Nakagawa

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Shoichi Nakagawa, chair of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Policy
Research Council, stated on Oct. 15 that: "Debate is needed"
regarding the question of whether Japan should possess nuclear
armaments. But yesterday, he portrayed himself as " an opponent to
Japan having nuclear arms." Nakagawa's controversial remark about
Japan considering a nuclear option cropped up at a time when the
international community is about to act together against North
Korea's nuclear ambitions, so the contents of his statement not only
lacked good judgment, it also could cause neighboring countries to
harbor suspicions and fear about Japan's intentions.

Specifically, Nakagawa stated on a TV program on Oct. 15 that
although this was not his own opinion, "There is an argument calling
on Japan to possess nuclear weapons as one option to prevent other
countries from committing aggression against our country. This issue
should be debated extensively." Even after the TV program ended,
Nakagawa continued to tell reporters: "(Japan) is severely shackled
by the three nonnuclear principles. I'm not saying this (nuclear
armament) should be done immediately." He went on, "Some take the
view that given the circumstances around Japan, it is only natural
for Japan to have nuclear weapons."

In connection with North Korea's nuclear test, a segment of the
Western press has expressed concern about the possibility of Japan
going nuclear. Perhaps aware of that concern, Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe made it clear, as in his Diet replies, that Japan would firmly
uphold the three nonnuclear principles. Despite this, Nakagawa's
controversial remark could be taken by other countries, including
China and South Korea, as the "armor worn beneath the clothes," and
it could raise doubts about Japan among other countries.

TOKYO 00006042 004 OF 011



A number of conservative intellectuals take the view that it is
strange to seal off debate about such a question. But a senior
ruling party member's remark has much more weight than that of an
ordinary citizen. In military context, Japan has generally reached
the conclusion that a nuclear option is not a rational idea.

If Japan were to maintain a nuclear deterrent, it would have to have
a capability of countering a second attack. Nuclear-tipped missiles
to be used against the second strike need to be concealed. But Japan
has no sites to do so. One idea may be to install them in a
submarine, but facilities now used by the Maritime Self-Defense
Force (MSDF) are limited, so they are easily detectable.

It is unlikely that any country in the world would welcome Japan's
opting for a nuclear solution. In that context, if Japan were to
develop its own nuclear arms, it would be invite being isolated from
the international community, just as North Korea now experiences.
Nakagawa's argument that "some are beginning to insist that no doubt
Japan should have it, given the circumstances around Japan" comes
from the same logic that North Korea is now using.

There is a view that debating a nuclear option will enhance
deterrence, and eventually induce United States to turn its eye more
toward Japan. This thinking, too, stems from the same logic North
Korea uses: that by behaving like a "bad boy," it is drawing the
attention of the US and other countries, thus helping to ensure its
own security.

(4) Interview on North Korea's nuclear test: Former LDP Vice
President Taku Yamasaki calls for realization of US-DPRK talks
instead of sanctions

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Interviewer: Tetsuya Furuta

-- Do you think the United Nations' latest sanction resolution
against North Korea will be effective?

Yamasaki: "Unless North Korea shifts its attitude, (ship)
inspections will be carried out mostly by the United States. The
inspections would be significant in terms of cutting off sea lanes,
even though China and Russia won't conduct them."

-- The government and the ruling coalition are considering
implementing own ship inspections?

"I think Japan should do what it can do within the purview of the
following three premises: the situation is recognized as a situation
in areas surrounding Japan (shuhen jitaI or a contingency) (as
stated in the Law on a Situation in the Areas Surrounding Japan);
consent is obtained (from a country to which a ship belongs); and
warning shots are not allowed. Perhaps US forces expect Japan to
offer logistic support, such as refueling and water supplying. A
number of arguments suggest Japan should be the first to be
mobilized and do something, but that is wrong. Japan can't do so nor
should it do so."

-- Do you think it is possible under the UN resolution this time to
see the current situation as a contingency in areas surrounding
Japan as described in the law?

TOKYO 00006042 005 OF 011



"By somehow stretching the law, it is possible to recognize it as a
situation in areas surrounding Japan, but I wonder whether it is
necessary for Japan to do such a thing in order to conduct own ship
inspections. I think Japan should do what it can in response to
America's request. The first thing to do is to hold consultations
with the US in a cool-headed manner."

-- The Abe administration is proceeding in the belief that the
current situation can be recognized as a situation in areas
surrounding Japan.

"If the current situation is recognized as a situation in areas
surrounding Japan, that means Japan recognizes the existence of a
contingency on the Korean Peninsula. But I don't think it is a good
policy to stretch the law to recognize a contingency. The US does
not regard it as a contingency in the Far East, either. Why is Japan
moving in that direction? In terms of the prime minister's
conventional assertion that 'abduction is more important than
nuclear programs among the North Korean issues,' the current move is
most undesirable. In the event of an emergency, (abductees) cannot
return home safely."

-- Do you think the government and the ruling parties are being too
hasty?

"Yes, indeed. If they remain as they are, they cannot achieve the
two goals of denuclearizing the peninsula and resolving the
abduction issue."

-- What do you think is a way to make the peninsula a nuclear free
zone?

"First, Japan should work on the US to hold bilateral talks with the
DPRK. But Japan has done nothing since former Prime Minister Koizumi
visited (the US) in June. (The government of Japan) should ask (the
US) to hold talks with North Korea, but it is urging it instead to
step up sanctions. Such being the case, (a military solution) could
arise; a war would be unavoidable."

-- Some in the ruling parties assert that it is all right to discuss
a nuclear option for Japan.

"That is out of the question. It's OK if commentators or critics
debate the issue, but it is bad for those who are responsible for
political affairs to discuss it. Because they would mislead the
public."

(5) North Korea with it nuclear test now laughing at peace-senile
Japan

SANKEI (Page 17) (Full)
October 13, 2006

Tadae Takubo, visiting professor at Kyorin University

I wonder if this kind of opinion comes from a perception gap. This
country's press editorials-with a few exceptions-are really lukewarm
(over North Korea's recent nuclear test). This time around, some
anti-US segments of the media are suddenly beginning to insist on
using the Japan-US alliance as a deterrent. That's ridiculous. Even
more annoying, one anti-US newspaper emphasized in its editorial
that Japan would have to soften the tensions in a careful manner so

TOKYO 00006042 006 OF 011


that North Korea will not come out with any reckless act on the
strength of its nuclear weapons. That's really embarrassing.

North Korea, which hates Japan, has now joined the club as the
eighth nuclear power. This is a cold fact about the way realpolitik
actually is in the international arena. North Korea will soon target
its arsenal of nuclear-warhead-tipped missiles at Japan. This has
further spurred the nuclear nonproliferation regime's collapse. The
six-party talks, which were supposed to have blocked North Korea
from going nuclear, were only used as a tool for North Korea to
attain its goal to carry out nuclear testing. Even if North Korea
returns to the six-party talks, the other five countries would face
further difficulties in their efforts on the diplomatic front to
urge North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions. I suppose South
Korean President Roh Moo Hyun almost admits that fact now. Seoul's
"sunshine policy," which seemed to contain something meaningful, was
no more than a chimera. In my view, the balance of power in East
Asia has drastically changed.

Meanwhile, there was a curious happening in Okinawa at the same time
that North Korea carried out its nuclear test. A freighter carrying
Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) ground-to-air intercept
missiles, which were soon to be deployed to the US Kadena Air Base
in Okinawa Prefecture as a missile defense (MD) system, was held up
for a while in the middle of Kin Bay. The local media played up this
fact. They don't seem to care about what crisis all of Japan
including Okinawa was facing. However, I wonder if we can just laugh
it off. I think this kind of problem epitomizes Japan.

Unashamedly enough, Japan, in its postwar constitution, declared
"the justice and faith of the peace-loving peoples of the world."
The government, in its interpretation thereof, has taken the
position that Japan is vested with the right to collective
self-defense but is not allowed to exercise it. Furthermore, Japan
has taken a defense-only posture and avowed its "three nonnuclear"
principles (of not possessing, producing or allowing nuclear weapons
into Japan). These policies are the backbones of Japan in its
postwar era. Need I say that they have now all collapsed before
North Korea's nuclear test? Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently
visited Beijing, where he made a statement to the following effect
in line with Prime Minister Murayama's August 1995 statement: "Japan
in the 60 postwar years stands on its deep self-reflection on the
fact that it once inflicted severe damage and left scars on the
peoples of countries in Asia." This statement, however, sounds empty
before Pyongyang's loud laugh.

What can Japan do? Japan should work together with the United States
to have the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution in
line with Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter and take effective
sanction measures at the earliest possible date. At the same time,
Japan should implement all possible sanctions that might be still
left.

Whether China will agree to impose sanctions on North Korea or
impose conditions will have a meaning. China itself is probably well
aware that this will be a touchstone for whether it can become a
responsible stakeholder and a player in maintaining international
order.

I hope that international sanctions will make North Korea decide to
give up its nuclear ambitions. If we cannot hope for it, then I
presume that the dynasty of Kim Jong Il would be overthrown from
within itself.

TOKYO 00006042 007 OF 011



The Kim dynasty reminds me of Romania's Ceausescu, who was supposed
to have completely placed his military under his control but
encountered its unexpected defection in a riot raised by a small
number of Hungarian residents in 1989. He met with a tragic end.
However, I must admit that a view of this kind contains wishful
thinking.

Some people are saying Japan would go nuclear and cause a chain
reaction to Taiwan. This, they say, would bring about a "nuclear
domino phenomenon." Forty years ago, Saburo Hayashi, a Mainichi
Shimbun correspondent to Paris, interviewed Gen. Pierre Galois, who
was an aide to President DeGaulle.

In the interview, Gen. Galois said France went nuclear in the cause
of coping with the military threat of the Soviet Union. At the same
time, however, the general came up with a weird forecast, saying
countries in the Far East, stipulated by China's acquisition of
nuclear weapons, would also face up to a similar problem in the
future. In those days, my eyes were riveted on the Soviet threat, so
I didn't believe his outlook. But now that we are facing North
Korea's nuclear weapons, I cannot suppress a grunt of admiration.

However, the circumstances of France in those days are quite
different from the position of Japan today. Should the greater part
of Japan incline to go nuclear, everybody could imagine how
difficult it is for the world's second biggest economic power to
join the nuclear club.

The moment DeGaulle had nuclear weapons in his hands, he bragged
that he was set free from bonds with America. Japan, as an ally of
the United States, is under the nuclear umbrella of Uncle Sam.
Japan's choosing to follow in the footsteps of DeGaulle will touch
the alliance's subtle point. In point of fact, it would be
impossible for Japan to go nuclear at present.

However, would it be all right to deprive Japan of all possible
options at our own discretion in our age? Japan must be prepared at
least to defend itself on its own if and when it is at a moment of
truth, or Japan cannot be powerful enough in its action.

(6) Minshuto issues statement welcoming UN resolution on sanctions
against North Korea

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
October 16, 2006

Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) Policy Research Council
Chairman Takeaki Matsumoto yesterday issued a statement welcoming
the adoption by the United Nations of a resolution calling for
sanctions against North Korea. It noted, "We highly evaluate that
the UN is eager to perform its initial function." Asked in an Asahi
TV program the same day about the party's view about ship
inspections as stipulated in the resolution, Matsumoto only replied,
"Japan has to do what it can do."

In her party's statement, Social Democratic Party head Mizuho
Fukushima praised the resolution, but regarding ship inspections,
she said, "Since such act might lead to battle action, we must be
cautious about implementing the measure." Speaking before reporters
in Tokyo yesterday, Policy Council Chairman Tomoko Abe indicated a
negative view about recognizing a "regional contingency." The
recognition is a precondition for the Maritime Self-Defense Force to

TOKYO 00006042 008 OF 011


be allowed to join ship inspections. Abe said, "If the current state
is recognized as a regional contingency, an expanded interpretation
may be frequently applied in the future."

In an Asahi TV program the same day, Japanese Communist Party Policy
Committee Chairman Akira Koike said: "The state of a wartime fire
raging on the opposite shore is being defined as a regional
contingency. The current state cannot be recognized as a
contingency."

(7) Editorial: Abe administration's solid start merits appreciation

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
October 14, 2006

Meetings at the budget committees of both chambers ended yesterday.
In the meetings, Abe engaged in full-fledged Diet debate as the
prime minister for the first time. Immediately after assuming
office, Abe has resumed summit meetings with Chinese and South
Korean leaders. He also faced an unexpected development in the form
of North Korea's nuclear test. He seems to have so far steadily
managed his government, and we would like to give him credit.

What is noteworthy is that Abe changed his perception of Japan's
wartime history before his meetings with the Chinese and South
Korean leaders.

Before assuming the premiership, Abe took a negative view about the
statement in 1995 in which Prime Minister Murayama expressed an
apology for Japan's colonial rule and aggression, as well as the
statement issued by Chief Cabinet Secretary Kono in 1993 admitting
the Imperial Japanese Army's involvement in the comfort-women issue.
In Diet deliberations, Abe revealed that his government would honor
the two statements. The prime minister, by making such statements,
succeeded in putting an end to the thorny issue of historical views,
which some observers had viewed as a bottleneck for his
administration. The environment was thus set for meetings with the
Chinese and South Korean leaders.

There must have been on hand intelligence that North Korea would
soon conduct a nuclear test. Based on such analysis, Abe took a
strategic stance, judging that getting out of step with these two
countries would be playing right into North Korea's hands.

The prime minister also said that Japan has no nuclear ambitions and
will uphold the three non-nuclear principles. Keeping in mind the
emergence in the United States of the speculation that Japan might
consider the nuclear option in the wake of North Korea's nuclear
test, Abe make took a quick response measure.

The prime minister also gave this Diet reply: "Some might complain
that my remarks (on historical views and the nation's nuclear
option) are contradictory to what I said before. I meekly accept the
criticism." Those expecting Abe to demonstrate his own policy
imprint have already express dissatisfaction with his policy switch.
On Oct. 13, ahead of the United Nations Security Council's adoption
of a resolution calling for sanctions against North Korea, Japan in
a cabinet meeting adopted its own sanctions against North Korea.
Some observers analyze that this move represent the prime minister's
willingness to demonstrate that he is a "fighting prime minister."

Some expect that Abe might begin to express his own stock views
after riding through the House of Councillors election next summer.

TOKYO 00006042 009 OF 011


But in various opinion polls, the prime minister's stance toward
China and South Korea has won high support rates. As long as he
continues to listen to the public's views, Abe is unlikely to change
his current stance in principle.

Turning to domestic affairs, the Education Revitalization Council,
set up under the instruction of Prime Minister Abe, includes a
variety of members including conservatives, moderates, and liberals.
Some anticipated that only those who have views close to the prime
minister's might be selected. But he gave consideration to a
well-balanced lineup.

Before the Abe administration was launched, the Mainichi Shimbun
encouraged the prime minister not to be overly eager and to be
flexible, although some other papers highlighted the danger of a
"hawkish prime minister." To counter the opposition camp, including
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan),it is natural for the prime
minister to opt for widening the wing without exclusively devoting
himself to the rightwing. The opposition side might have the feeling
that the prime minister gave it the dodge. It is now urged to revamp
its strategy.

The prime minister will inevitably continue to face a crucial moment
for a whole. Tensions over the North Korea issue are expected to run
higher following the adoption by the United Nations of a resolution
against that nation. We hope Prime Minister Abe will continue to be
steady and flexible as he did when his government got off to a
start.

(8) Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to assume
chairmanship of the Mori faction possibly next week

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
October 17, 2006

Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who chairs the Mori faction in
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),firmed up his intention on Oct.
16 to resign his post in the near future. Accompanying that
decision, coordination is going forward in the faction to name as
the next chairman former Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, who is
now secretary general of the faction. The formal decision to appoint
him may come as early as next week,

Mori, who served as chairman for five years under the Koizumi
administration, hinted at the possibility of his retiring when he
said at a meeting of the faction Sept. 21, following the selection
of Shinzo Abe (of the same faction) as LDP president: "My role in
the faction is generally over." He was asked by Yasuo Fukuda and
other senior faction leaders to stay on but did not respond.

Mori yesterday told his aides: "From the start, I always thought
that I would resign as chairman once the LDP presidential election
was over. My feeling remains the same as before. No matter how you
press me to stay, I won't change my mind." He stressed that he would
not change his view about resigning the post. The successor,
Machimura, has let it be known to several faction officials that he
desired the post. Coordination will now begin to appoint him to the
chairman's position. The idea has been floating of making Mori the
honorary chairman of the faction.

(9) Okinawa has worst record in country for drunk driving

YOMIURI (Page 13) (Full)

TOKYO 00006042 010 OF 011


October 7, 2006

Does drunk driving vary based on the locality? The Yomiuri Shimbun
calculated the number of crackdowns on drunk driving per 100,000
licensed drivers based on the National Police Agency's released data
about the number of drunk driving cases and the population of
licensed drivers throughout the country.

Looking at last year's worst offenders, Okinawa Prefecture by far
overwhelmed all other prefectures with 1,123 cases (per 100,000
licensed drivers),followed by Yamanashi Prefecture and Mie
Prefecture. Furthermore, both Kochi Prefecture and Akita
Prefecture-where people were found to be spending much more money on
alcoholic drinks than other prefectures, according to the Ministry
of Internal Affairs and Communications' survey of household
expenses-ranked high on the prefectural list of offenders.
Meanwhile, Gifu Prefecture was the lowest of all prefectures with
107 cases. Nara Prefecture and Fukui Prefecture were also less than
10% of the record set by Okinawa Prefecture.

In 2001, the criminal code was revised with the establishment of
charges against dangerous driving resulting in death or injury.
After that, the total number of nationwide cases of arrests for
drunk driving decreased from 175,730 in 2003 to 140,873 last year.
During that time, however, the annual number of arrests in
crackdowns on drunk driving increased from 8,074 to 9,285 in Okinawa
Prefecture, likewise up from 1,692 to 2,275 in Yamanashi Prefecture
and up from 3,160 to 3,243 in Mie Prefecture. The figures show that
the introduction of severe penalties has had no effect in these
prefectures.

In the Okinawa prefectural police's survey of about 2,500 persons
charged with drunken driving, three out of every four persons
"didn't think of drinking at first." However, one out of every four
persons answered that they had "thought about drinking from the
beginning." There were also about 400 violators who had driven home
drunk, even though they only lived within a radius of one kilometer
from where they drank. "Okinawa's sunset is late when compared with
the mainland, and people have many chances to drink away from their
homes," says an official of the traffic planning division at the
Okinawa Prefectural Police Headquarters. "That's probably why they
have a weak feeling of guilt about drinking and driving," the
official added.

The Tokyo-based Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data
Analysis (ITARDA) attributes drunk driving in part to the degree of
development of public transportation, such as railways and buses.
The worst five includes Wakayama Prefecture and Oita Prefecture --
prefectures that neighbor big cities -- Yamanashi Prefecture and Mie
Prefecture. On the contrary, Tokyo and certain other prefectures
like Kanagawa Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, and Kyoto Prefecture,
which are highly urbanized areas with various public transportation
networks, ranked low on the list.

Such regional disparities, however, should take into account such
likely factors as local climates and age structures, in addition to
transportation networks and geographic conditions.

Police arrests for drunk driving in 2005 ASTERISK
High Low

1. Okinawa 1,123 1. Gifu 107

2. Yamanashi 388 2. Nara 109

3. Mie 265 3. Fukui 110

TOKYO 00006042 011 OF 011



4. Wakayama 260 4. Tokyo 111

5. Oita 256 5. Tokushima 117

6. Kochi 255 6. Shiga 124

7. Tottori 238 7. Kanagawa 134

8. Hyogo 232 7. Kagawa 134

9. Akita 224 7. Saitama 134

10. Aomori 211 10. Kyoto 139

Cases per 100,000 licensed drivers, based on data provided by NPA.

SCHIEFFER

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