The Japan Economic Scope Q Economic News At-

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 006012 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT PLEASE PASS USTR PARIS PLEASE PASS USOECD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ETRD ECON JA ZO EAGR SUBJECT: The Japan Economic Scope Q Economic News At- A-Glance. Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Table of Contents Paragraph 3 Q Japan Announces DPRK Sanctions 4 Q Ambassador Addresses Business Leaders 5 Q MOFA DG Discusses APERM, Economic Relationship 9 Q EMIN Pays Call on Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka MACHIMURA 12 Q American Infinity Aviation Group Ties with Nakanihon Air Service Co., Ltd. to Sell Business Jets in Nagoya 14 Q Kusakari to Head CPRR 15 Q Next Generation Aerospace of Interest to Kansas Visitors to Nagoya 17 Q Japan Appeals U.S. Use of "Zeroing" to WTO Appellate Body 18 Q Bubble economy in Osaka, again? 19 Q Hankyu and Hanshin merge to create giant Osaka conglomerate 21 Q Apple's Efforts in the Hokkaido PC Market 23 Q Lehman Brothers Among Investors in $171 million Hokkaido Luxury Resort 25 Q Economic Benefit of Baseball Championship Up to $185 million 26 Q Daihatsu Mini-car Sales to Set Record 27 Q Northeast Asia Monthly Newsletter ¶2. (U) The Japan Economic Scope (JES) is a weekly e- newsletter produced by Embassy Tokyo's ECON section in collaboration with other sections and constituent Posts and published every Friday. It provides a brief overview of recent economic developments, insights gleaned from contacts, summaries of the latest cables and a list of upcoming visitors. This cable contains the October 6, 2006, JES, minus the attachments that accompany many of the individual stories in the e-mail version. To be added to the e-mail list, please email ProgarJ@state.gov. Japan Announces DPRK Sanctions -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Japan Announces New Sanctions on North Korea: The Japanese government October 11 announced that it had decided to impose a third round of unilateral sanctions against North Korea, banning all imports, denying port access to vessels registered in that country, and barring North Korean citizens from entering Japan. The restriction against North Korean citizens went into effect immediately. North Korean vessels currently docked in Japanese ports will also be ordered to leave. According to the Japan Coast Guard, North Korean ships entered the nation's main ports 578 times from January through September. The import and port bans are slated to begin October 14, after gaining cabinet approval. These sanctions are set to expire in six months. Imports from North Korea totaled JPY 13.7 billion (about $124 million) for fiscal 2005, mainly consisting of apparel and such agricultural and marine products as mushrooms and clams. According to one study prepared by the Australian Government, Japan was North Korea's second largest export market in 2004, accounting for 12 percent of total exports, after China's 41 percent. Ambassador Addresses Business Leaders -------------- ¶4. (U) Ambassador Schieffer addressed on October 11 in Tokyo the Keizai Doyukai, a leading association of reform-oriented Japanese business leaders. The ambassador's speech reviewed key challenges facing the U.S. and Japan: enhancing open, innovative and flexible markets; securing adequate energy supplies; and maintaining a clean environment. During the TOKYO 00006012 002 OF 006 ensuing Q&A, the first inquiry had to due with the possibility of a U.S.-Japan FTA. The ambassador responded that any FTA would have to be comprehensive, inter alia requiring a solution to the problem of access to Japan's agricultural market. Questions that followed touched on the U.S. response to the DPRK nuclear test, the future of the Kyoto Treaty, the challenge of aging societies, and differences in the way U.S. and Japanese baseball umpires count balls and strikes. MOFA DG Discusses APERM, Economic Relationship -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) MOFA DG for Economic Affairs Kaoru Ishikawa covered a range of subjects at a dinner he hosted October 11 to welcome EMIN to Tokyo. Flanked by 2nd North Americas Division Director Mizushima and OECD Division Director Tsutsumi, Ishikawa termed MOFA's Asia Pacific Economic Research Mechanism an "apolitical" attempt to improve the region's economic data compilation and asked for USG support. The GOJ will sponsor a conference on APERM November 6-7 in Kyoto (see Tokyo 5943). ¶6. (SBU) On bilateral trade issues, Ishikawa quipped that if Japan and Australia cannot work out an FTA, he was ready to work on one with the United States. The MOFA DG noted that Vice Foreign Minister Yachi raised the idea in Washington of the two countries proposing a private sector study on the feasibility of an FTA. Ishikawa was cautious on the concept's immediate prospects, and spoke in particular of the agriculture interests that would oppose it. Mizushima was even more frank about the difficulties. ¶7. (SBU) On the bilateral economic relationship with the United States, Ishikawa sees no reason to make a big public event out of the exchange of recommendations for the two countries' regulatory reform process. Specifically, he said that the November APEC Summit in Hanoi would not be an appropriate place for the exchange. Although both countries' interests are addressed in the process, regulatory reform is too much of a lightning rod for Diet members in advance of Upper House elections next summer. ¶8. (SBU) On the sub cabinet meeting, he underscored that success would be determined by attention to the details. The two sides must avoid potential land mines to be sure the sub cabinet goes well and there is progress where possible. EMIN Pays Call on Former Foreign Minister Nobutaka MACHIMURA -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Machimura was happy to share his views with the EMIN on a wide range of topics including next steps for the bilateral economic relationship and the new Kantei organization. Machimura noted that a possible bilateral FTA currently is not a subject of discussion in Diet circles. He hailed ongoing initiatives such as regulatory reform, while suggesting that we should freshen it up with a new name and agenda to reflect the start of the new Abe administration. He noted the occasional criticism the regulatory reform initiative has encountered from the opposition party in the Diet as being overly driven by American objectives. He also worried that anti- globalization sentiments could gain traction in Japan, as some associated deregulation with an increase in crime and a loss of national values. ¶10. (SBU) Machimura welcomed foreign direct investment into Japan and supported Prime Minister Abe's policy to double FDI stock by 2010, specifically pointing out the need to increase productivity in the service TOKYO 00006012 003 OF 006 sector made it an area which could be subject to further bilateral cooperation. 11.(SBU) On the new Kantei organization, Machimura revealed that the Policy Advisors to the Prime Minister, especially Yuriko Koike (national security) and Takumi Nemoto (economic and fiscal affairs),need to choose their issues carefully and not duplicate the work of the respective ministries. Machimura pointed out that he had advised Koike personally to work on improving e coordination among Japan's intelligence agencies, something he believes is very necessary. To our surprise (given the sensitivities surrounding the sector),Machimura raised port services as a sector ripe for reform. American Infinity Aviation Group Ties with Nakanihon Air Service Co., Ltd. to Sell Business Jets in Nagoya -------------- -------------- ¶12. (U) The daily "Mid-Japan Economist" reported October 12 that aircraft and helicopter chartering firm Nakanihon Air Service of the Nagoya Railroad Company group will team up with New Hampshire's Infinity Aviation Group to sell U.S.-registered used business jets to Central Japan corporations with operations in Asia, particularly China. Infinity will operate and maintain the jets, supplying pilots and other staff, for customers out of the Aichi Prefecture-owned Nagoya Airport. ¶13. (U) This will be the first joint effort by U.S. and Japanese companies to sell and operate business jets in Japan. A used business jet typically costs about $11 million and annual operating costs are about $2.6 million, based on 40 round trips to China and a total of 400 flight hours per year. The firms plan to start small, aiming at sales of two jets in 2007 and a third in 2009. To date, the Japanese business aviation market remains miniscule, with only 26 business jets registered in the country, compared to over 14,000 in the U.S. Kusakari to Head CPRR -------------- ¶14. (U) As reported in the September 22 JES, Takao Kusakari, Chairman of Nihon Yusen, will officially succeed Yoshihiko Miyauchi as the Chairman of the Council for the Promotion of Regulatory Reform (CPRR) on October 19. Kusakari, who has been an executive member of CPRR since April 2004, is expected to carry forward the Council's reform agenda until its term ends in March 2007. In addition, he will lead the Council in developing a proposal regarding the form of CPRR's successor body as the end of its term approaches. Press reports state that Kusakari was personally recommended by former CPRR Chairman Yoshihiko Miyauchi and speculate that he will likely stay on to chair the next version of the organization. Next Generation Aerospace of Interest to Kansas Visitors to Nagoya -------------- ¶15. (U) During a three-day visit to Nagoya, a delegation from the State of Kansas and the Greater Wichita Economic Development Coalition focused on deepening ties with manufacturers in the booming Central Japan aerospace sector, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, as part of efforts to make a smooth transition to the next generation of aircraft manufacture. Wichita has established a $40 million technical training center, in large part to help workers gain skills in composite materials manufacturing, and is a "center of excellence" for both the FAA and NASA. ¶16. (U) Kansas and Wichita are seeking FDI from Japan, TOKYO 00006012 004 OF 006 particularly from suppliers of advanced aviation technologies, to maintain their strength as a key aerospace hub. At the same time, Wichita companies like Boeing spin-off Spirit Aerospace, the world's biggest supplier of commercial aircraft assemblies and components, are working with Japanese companies like Toray to develop jointly the specs for composite materials to be used in future aircraft. Japan Appeals U.S. Use of "Zeroing" to WTO Appellate Body -------------- ¶17. (U) Just weeks after losing its anti-dumping case against the United States at the WTO, Japan launched an appeal on October 11. The GOJ is contesting a WTO dispute settlement panel's finding that rejected Japan's challenge against the U.S. "zeroing" methodology, a case first brought by Japan in November ¶2004. The WTO panel issued its finding in September, indicating that the U.S. methodology was consistent with the WTO Antidumping Agreement. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry claims that the WTO panel's decision is not in tune with earlier decisions in which it ruled against the United States in what it claims are similar cases brought by the EU and Canada. For more details on this case, see the link below. http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/c ases_e/ds 322_e.htm Bubble economy in Osaka, again? -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Office real estate prices in the center of Osaka are rising. The market prices of land under large-scale office buildings on major business streets have almost doubled to a level three times the government-appraised land prices. Investment trust companies have begun grabbing major office buildings. MD REIT Investment Ltd in MID Urban Development Group, formerly Matsushita Real Estate, has recently purchased six office buildings and commercial facilities for 113.5 billion yen in Osaka. This is the highest trade price for real estate in the region following the collapse of the bubble economy. MD REIT raised 94 billion yen from investors, mostly individuals, for the purchase. The recent market prices are high but still one third of that during the peak of the bubble. Hankyu and Hanshin merge to create giant Osaka conglomerate -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Hankyu Holdings and Hanshin Electric Railways Co. have merged to become Hankyu and Hanshin Holdings as of October 1. The new entity is the third largest railway company in Japan, following Tokyo- based Tokyu and Kansai-based Kintetsu. Hankyu and Hanshin Holdings is also a huge transportation, distribution, and service company, boasting more than 1 trillion yen in annual sales. Nonetheless, the new firm has acquired the same amount in debt through the merger, and management faces challenges in how to resolve overlaps in Hankyu and Hanshin subsidiary business units. ¶20. (SBU) Their hotel operations have begun to consolidate under Hankyu's lead. However, the giant conglomerate's other businesses, such as travel, rail and bus transportation, distribution, retail, and real estate operations have not worked out their new modus operandi. Hankyu and Hanshin are targeting JR as the rival for its full portfolio of businesses in the Osaka-Kobe corridor. A contact at Mitsubishi-Tokyo UFJ Bank commented that the local economy will benefit from the merger; the bank welcomed the increased competition between JR and Hankyu/Hanshin as a way to TOKYO 00006012 005 OF 006 enhance asset values and boost consumer convenience. Apple's Efforts in the Hokkaido PC Market -------------- ¶21. (U) Over the summer, Apple Computer opened its seventh Japan-based Apple Store in a prime location near Sapporo's Odori Park. Offering hi-tech, chic displays of more than 1000 products, Apple Store Sapporo is proving popular with longtime Hokkaido Mac users and local iPod customers, who flock to the store to obtain limited edition Sapporo iPod covers. Since its opening a few months ago, it has attracted local clientele in their twenties and thirties, especially female customers. Apple Store Sapporo has also had some success attracting older customers by offering a variety of services unknown at typical Japanese electronic stores. These include daily in-store Mac intro sessions, additional private and group lessons for new Mac users, advanced Mac computing courses for professional users, and in-store concerts twice a month. However, since Mac sales make up only four percent of total computer sales in Japan, it remains to be seen if Apple can continue to find customers here looking to buy more than iPod accessories. ¶22. (U) Hokkaido's prefecture-wide emphasis on local IT and biotech development may offer new market opportunities to Apple. In 2005, the city of Fukagawa (about 150km north of Sapporo) replaced the PCs used by all five of its junior high schools with 160 iMac computers. Using Mac's "NetBoot System," the city built a centrally managed and controlled information network for the schools that saved $51,000 in operating costs during the school year. Apple hopes news of this success story will generate additional sales to local governments throughout Hokkaido. Lehman Brothers Among Investors in $171 million Hokkaido Luxury Resort -------------- ¶23. (U) Nikkei reported 10/7 that Lehman Brothers Japan will join The Windsor Hotels International and SECOM in investing in $171 million to build a new luxury resort complex at Lake Toya, Hokkaido. Construction on the time-share resort is slated for 2008-2011. 200 individual suites at the resort, priced at $2.2 million each, will go on sale overseas in February 2007 and in Japan from Fall 2008. The hotel's management will partner with the NY-based luxury hospitality organization Leading Hotels of the World and Cornell University's School of Hotel Administration. ¶24. (U) The resort will be constructed next to the successful Windsor Hotel Toya Resort & Spa. Located 1.5 hours southeast of Sapporo Chitose International Airport at one of Hokkaido's most famous tourist attractions, the five-star hotel has maintained a 90% summer room occupancy rate since opening in 2002. Economic Benefit of Baseball Championship Up to $185 million -------------- ¶25. (U) The regional economic impact of a victory by Nagoya's Chunichi Dragons in the Japan Series could be up to %22 billion (approx. $185 million) according to Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting. The direct impact of a Series victory by the Central Baseball League champion Dragons, including tickets and increased sales at department stores and supermarkets is estimated at %13.2 billion (approx. $111 million), and the indirect impact, such as inducement of additional production, is pegged at %8.8 billion (approx. $74 million). The Dragons have not won a Japan Series in 52 years, explaining the strong TOKYO 00006012 006 OF 006 interest. Daihatsu Mini-car Sales to Set Record -------------- ¶26. (U) According to Bloomberg, Osaka mini-car maker Daihatsu has revamped its popular Move and Move Custom lines in an attempt to beat Suzuki as the largest seller of mini-cars, which use engines of 0.66 liters or less. Sales are reportedly on a record pace for the firm, as consumers have been shifting to the vehicles to combat rising fuel and maintenance costs. Owning a mini-car is estimated to save Japanese consumers nearly half a million yen (USD 4,000) in taxes, insurance and other costs over five years. Daihatsu sales are up two percent so far in the calendar year. Toyota Motor Corp. has a 51 percent ownership stake in the company. Northeast Asia Monthly Newsletter -------------- ¶27. (U) The Northeast Asia energy officers produce a monthly newsletter on regional energy topics. This month's newsletter features a new look courtesy of the Seoul Embassy. If you would like to be included on the mailing list please send a note to John Wecker mailto:WeckerJA@state.gov SCHIEFFER