MOFA DIRECTOR GENERAL DISCUSSES THAILAND, BURMA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005824 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PARM ETRD PINR TH BM IN CE JA SUBJECT: MOFA DIRECTOR GENERAL DISCUSSES THAILAND, BURMA, INDIA, SRI LANKA Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Joseph R. Donovan for reasons 1.4(b0, (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MOFA Director General for Southeast and Southwest Asian Affairs Chihiro Atsumi told Charge October 6 that: -- Japan is not happy with the recent coup in Thailand and is concerned about the signals it sends to other states in the region, particularly Burma, but at the same time recognizes that a large number of Thais support the new government, it is important that Thailand remain a strong anchor in the ASEAN framework, and that it may become necessary to deal with Bangkok in a "normal" manner pending the restoration of a democratically elected government; -- it is necessary to keep steady pressure on the government in Burma. The fact that it is now on the Security Council's agenda sends an important message; it must also be recognized that Burma's leaders do not respond to strong measures and that perhaps we should be satisfied by small, incremental improvements in the situation there; -- Prime Minister Abe is very interested in improving relations with India and is looking forward to a visit by Prime Minister Singh in December; Japan understands the motivations behind the U.S.-India nuclear deal but prefers not to take a public position at this time, as it is still a sensitive issue domestically; -- Japan found the September 27 Sri Lanka Contact Group meeting to be a useful first step to developing relationships necessary to better understand and track LTTE fundraising and money transfers; -- MOFA is requesting funds in the FY2007 budget to open ten new Embassies, primarily in Africa. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) During an October 6 lunch with Charge, MOFA Director General for Southeast and Southwest Asian Affairs Chihiro Atsumi discussed Japan's relations with Thailand, Burma, India, and Sri Lanka. Atsumi was accompanied by Principal Deputy Director for Southwest Asia Masaki Ishikawa. Political Minister Counselor Mike Meserve and Political Officer Evan Reade (notetaker) were also present. END SUMMARY. -------------- THAILAND -------------- ¶3. (C) Atsumi stated that Japan is not happy with the recent turn of events in Thailand, noting wryly that even though the military government is promising democratic elections in one year, this is not quick enough for Tokyo. At the same time, it must be recognized that approximately 80% of Thais seem to support the new government and the signals it is sending about running the country and restoring democracy are hopeful. He pointed out that Thailand is a key leader in the ASEAN process and it is therefore important that it remain strong and stable, and not isolated. At the same time, there is concern at MOFA that if relations with Thailand remain unchanged following the coup, the message sent to other regional neighbors -- i.e., Burma -- will be the wrong one. With regard to foreign assistance to Thailand, Atsumi said there has been no change since the coup to existing aid projects and that the Japanese experts already in Thailand will remain. New projects have been put on hold pending the recently completed cabinet formation process in Tokyo, but MOFA will now gradually begin to examine how to proceed with regard to assistance. The bottom line for Japan is that it is important to get Thailand back on the democratic path. -------------- BURMA -------------- ¶4. (C) The Charge thanked Atsumi for Japan's support in placing Burma on the Security Council's agenda. Atsumi replied by noting this step had drawn public criticism from the Burmese government, but Japan believes it necessary to step up and maintain pressure on Burma. Tokyo had initially pursued a policy of trying to persuade the regime to be more open to the outside, and former Prime Minister Koizumi had TOKYO 00005824 002 OF 003 sent a retired foreign minister to deliver a personal letter urging Burma's leaders to positively address two or three important issues. All the Japanese received in return was a letter acknowledging receipt. This was a great disappointment to Koizumi and caused Japan to change it's approach toward Burma. Despite this change, Atsumi noted that Japan intends to remain in close contact with the regime and counseled that it may be unrealistic to expect that strong measures against it will produce results, pointing out hopefully that every now and then Burma does make small changes on the human rights front. ¶5. (C) Astumi's comments also revealed that Japan remains sensitive to Chinese relations with Burma, particularly in the economic and trade fields. Atsumi pointed out as an example that Japan had constructed a hydro power plant for the Burmese which required continued maintenance and spare parts. The Japanese offered to provide the needed parts and servicing, but this assistance was conditioned on improvements in the human rights situation. Of course, when the authorities arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, the Japanese had to stop providing the assistance required to keep the plant operational. In the meantime, the Chinese built an even larger power plant for the Burmese, with no strings attached. The result is that today a large percentage of Burma's electricity is provided thanks to the Chinese. Atsumi concluded by noting that even though Burma is now on the Security Council's agenda, it is unlikely the Chinese will permit even mild sanctions to be enacted. -------------- INDIA -------------- ¶6. (C) Atsumi confirmed that Prime Minister Singh will visit Tokyo in December and noted that he was the third world leader Prime Minister Abe had spoken to following his election (the first two being President Bush and Korean President Roh.) He recalled that former Prime Minister Koizumi had started developing closer ties with India when he met with PM Singh on the margins of the G-8 meetings in Saint Petersburg. As a result of those meetings, a joint study group was agreed upon and the two countries are now ready to launch into more formal negotiations about improving their relationship. The focus of the December meeting will be to discuss increasing the number of high-level exchanges and growing the economic relationship. Atsumi lamented that Japanese trade with India is dwarfed by the Chinese-Indian trade relationship, but noted that there is currently an "India boom" taking place in Tokyo, with many firms becoming more interested in exploring business opportunities in India. MOFA's job, he said, is to keep the boom alive and turn it into a long lasting relationship. ¶7. (C) On the subject of the U.S.-Indian nuclear deal, Atsumi predicted that this will also be discussed by the two leaders when they meet in December. He said that Japan understands the logic behind the agreement, noting the important strategic value of India as well as it's growing need for energy resources and the impact of this on world supplies. But at the same time, nuclear power and nuclear weapons are a very sensitive subject for the Japanese and Tokyo feels the need to maintain a very low profile on this issue for now. He pointed out that the deal has still to be approved by the U.S. Congress, that India and the IAEA will have to hold discussions on safeguards, and that later in the process the procedures of the Nuclear Suppliers Group will have to be brought into play, potentially giving other countries a say in whether the deal is finalized. Atsumi said that the agreement is the subject of debates within Japan's scientific community, and even within MOFA there are different points of view. As a result, Japan must be very careful about what it says in public, for fear of getting too far out in front of a politically volatile subject. -------------- SRI LANKA -------------- ¶8. (C) The discussion touched briefly on the subject of Sri Lanka. Masaki Ishikawa, Principal Deputy Director of the Southwest Asia Division, who accompanied Atsumi to the luncheon, reported that Japan was pleased with the Sri Lanka Contact Group meeting on September 27 in Washington, finding it a useful first step in developing the relationships necessary to better understand and track LTTE fundraising and TOKYO 00005824 003 OF 003 money transferring activities. Charge thanked Atsumi and Ishikawa for the important role Special Envoy Akashi is playing in the process, and relayed that A/S Boucher was also grateful for Japan's continued leadership on this issue. Ishikawa reported that Akashi is planning to travel to Sri Lanka very soon in advance of the resumption of peace talks which are now scheduled for October 28 in Geneva. -------------- DIPLOMATIC GROWTH -------------- ¶9. (C) Atsumi, confirming press reports we've seen earlier, confirmed that MOFA is wishfully including a request in its FY2007 budget submission for funds to establish ten new embassies, primarily in African nations. MOFA realizes this is a stretch and will be happy to get approval for only a few of those planned. -------------- BIO INFORMATION -------------- ¶10. (C) Atsumi is a relaxed and engaging interlocutor who has had a wide variety of assignments in the Foreign Ministry. He has a sense of humor, speaks English well, and enjoys meeting with American diplomats. Most recently DCM in Bejing following a stint as Economic Counselor at the same mission, he related that he had accompanied former Prime Minister Nakasone in 1984 when he visited China, during the period when Atsumi was in the Japanese Embassy in Beijing's Economic Section handling Official Development Assistance. Atsumi also described accompanying Vice Minister Yachi Shotaro to Dai Bingguo's home province, Guizhou, which Atsumi described as China's poorest province. Atsumi served in Moscow in the early 1990's covering disarmament issues and touring previously closed nuclear weapons and chemical weapons manufacturing plants. -------------- DONOVAN