PDUSD HENRY AND JDA'S MORIYA DISCUSS CHINA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005709 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2026 TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL CH JA SUBJECT: PDUSD HENRY AND JDA'S MORIYA DISCUSS CHINA Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRS, A.I. JOSEPH DONOVAN, REASONS 1.4 B/D ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Japan is concerned about China's lack of transparency in its military modernization, its campaign to end the EU arms embargo on Beijing, and its recent efforts to downgrade exchanges with the Japan Defense Agency (JDA), Administrative Vice-Minister Takemasa Moriya told visiting Principal Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy Ryan Henry September 25. On North Korea, Moriya said it was time for the U.S. and Japan to develop clear plans on what the bilateral security response would be to future provocations by North Korea. END SUMMARY. China: Lack of Military Transparency -------------- ¶2. (C) JDA was grateful for the decision to consult with Japanese counterparts before visiting China to discuss the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR),JDA Administrative Vice-Minister Takemasa Moriya told visiting PDUSD for Policy Henry in a meeting September 25. Japan shares many of the same concerns about China held by the U.S., he said. JDA would be "very curious" to hear a read-out later on how PDUSD Henry's visit to China is received, he said. ¶3. (C) The lack of transparency in China's military build-up, particularly in its air and maritime capabilities, was a serious concern for Japan, said Moriya. He had pressed PLA Chief of Staff General Xiong Guangkai on the transparency issue in three meetings, he said, but got little response. Xiong finally acknowledged in their last meeting that China would not be transparent while it was still in the process of developing its military capabilities, said Moriya. Transparency was a "luxury" only rich countries like the U.S. and Japan could afford, Xiong had said. ¶4. (C) There were other indicators of a lack of military transparency by China, said Moriya. Visiting PLA general officers had ignored his request to explain the 2004 incursion of a Han-class PLAN submarine into Japanese territorial waters, and what measures had been taken to prevent a recurrence, he said. The PRC's only response was to say the incident had been "a mistake", he said. When PLA visitors come to Japan, added Moriya, JDA always accommodates their requests to see Self-Defense Force (SDF) facilities. When JDA officials visit China, however, there was no such reciprocity, he said. ¶5. (C) PDUSD Henry replied that China's lack of transparency on its military modernization likely stemmed both from a desire not to reveal weaknesses, and a calculation that opacity was a source of strength. The U.S. was concerned, however, that China's lack of transparency, and the PLA's lack of interaction with foreign military counterparts, could lead to miscalculation on the part of the PRC. There was a risk that the Chinese might mistakenly assume they could leverage the U.S., or that the U.S. has vulnerabilities that China could exploit. ¶6. (C) This concern, said PDUSD Henry, had led the U.S. government to invite PLA representatives to observe the recent three-carrier exercise Valiant Shield off Guam, and PLA vessels to join the U.S. Navy in a search-and-rescue exercise off Hawaii and San Diego. Establishing international standards on search-and-rescue with the Chinese military was a basic first step, he explained; broader mil-mil interaction could then follow. EU Arms Embargo Worries -------------- ¶7. (C) Growing Chinese pressure on the EU to lift its arms embargo on Beijing was also a cause of concern for Japan, said Moriya. He had returned recently from a visit to France with the conclusion that Europeans "do not understand Asia very well." As China's international profile rises, European countries appear increasingly susceptible to pressure to drop the arms export ban because of economic opportunities in China, he said. Beijing was dispatching three delegations a year to European capitals to lobby on this point, he said. TOKYO 00005709 002 OF 002 If the EU drops its arms embargo, predicted Moriya, Russia is likely to remove any and all constraints it places on arms sales to China in order to compete. Absent European restrictions, Russia may overcome their practice of refraining from selling China certain sensitive military technologies "because they are neighboring countries." ¶8. (C) Moriya voiced frustration with a recent PLA decision to downgrade its dialogue with JDA. For some years, the JDA Administrative Vice-Minister had held an occasional dialogue with the Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA, he said. Recently, the PLA had indicated they intended to downgrade the rank of Moriya's Chinese counterpart to the Assistant Chief of Staff level. This was unacceptable to JDA. Given the importance of rank in China, said Moriya, a lower level dialogue would make the talks less substantive. Responding to North Korea's next provocation -------------- ¶9. (S) Turning to North Korea, Moriya emphasized that Pyongyang needed to be convinced that any future provocations would lead to "a sufficiently harsh response." It was time for the U.S. and Japan to plan out what the bilateral security response would be to future North Korean actions, such as a nuclear test or more missile launches. North Korea is already well aware of the U.S. military's capability to conduct punitive strikes on other countries, said PDUSD Henry. It was important for the U.S. and Japan to go beyond that to show Pyongyang that the threat posed by their ballistic missiles could be neutralized, by enhancing combined U.S. and Japan missile defense capabilities. ¶10. (U) PDUSD Henry has cleared this message. DONOVAN