YACHI-DAI SUB-CABINET TALKS: NO PROGRESS TOWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005608 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: END OF US-JAPAN ALLIANCE TAGS: PREL CH JA SUBJECT: YACHI-DAI SUB-CABINET TALKS: NO PROGRESS TOWARD SUMMIT Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Joseph R. Donovan. Reason: 1.4 B/D. ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: Sub-cabinet talks with China aimed at improving relations had been slow-going and the outlook for a bilateral summit on the sidelines of the November APEC meeting looked bleak, MOFA China Division Director Akiba told us September 26 prior to the talks' conclusion. Improving relations with China will be a top foreign policy priority for newly elected PM Abe, Akiba stated. Japan and China need to move beyond history issues like prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine and focus on areas of mutual interest, such as energy and the environment. China Division Principal Deputy Director Nomura reported September 27 that the Yachi-Dai talks had concluded the previous evening with no agreement on a summit. The two sides would continue discussions at the working level. Comment: Aware that Japan would like to improve relations and resume summits, China is clearly playing hardball. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In a September 26 meeting to discuss Japan-China relations, MOFA China Division Director Takeo Akiba confided to Political Section Deputy that the outlook for a bilateral summit on the sidelines of the November APEC meeting appeared bleak. Akiba confirmed press reports indicating the previous day's sub-cabinet-level talks between Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi and China,s Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo resulted in little progress. Even though Dai had delayed his return to China to continue talks, a breakthrough was unlikely, Akiba commented, because the prospect of holding a summit on the margins of APEC had not even been directly broached. Akiba, in contrast to press reporting, cautioned that even under the new Abe administration improving bilateral relations with China would be slow going and that many hurdles remain. ¶3. (C) What is needed, said Akiba, is for Japan and China to focus on areas of mutual interest, such as energy, the environment, and fostering development in rural areas of China. Newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe understands that the history issue, i.e., prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine, continues to impede diplomatic relations with China, but maintaining ambiguity on whether he will visit the shrine is his only option. As a politician, he cannot commit to not visiting Yasukuni Shrine, as the Chinese want. He added that Yachi is making a tremendous effort to improve relations with China, and has the added advantage of being a confidante of Abe's who can raise difficult matters with him. He has &total discretionary authority8 to deal with Dai. Dai, however, is operating under the constraints of a collective leadership that moves slowly, Akiba said. ¶4. (C) Improving relations with China is a top priority for Prime Minister Abe, Akiba stated. While China blames Japan for the current poor state of relations, both sides are responsible, he said. When asked about Abe,s likely foreign policy strategy on China, Akiba said that the speech Abe gave at the Second Tokyo-Beijing Forum held in Tokyo in early August accurately reflected Abe,s views. Akiba had drafted the speech himself and shared that Abe had told him that it genuinely portrayed his (Abe's) opinion. Abe, in the speech, blamed the low opinion many Japanese have toward China, and vice versa, on mutual misunderstanding. He stated that Beijing must understand Japan,s postwar development was founded on pacifist principles. Abe stressed that both countries need to work hard to make sure single issues, such as history, do not stymie economic ties. ¶5. (C) Japan and China will hold many joint cultural activities in 2007 to mark the 35th anniversary of restored diplomatic ties between the two countries, Akiba remarked. Tokyo will increase the number of home stay opportunities for Chinese high school students in Japan and Beijing will reciprocate. By year's end, roughly 1,100 Chinese high school students will have visited Japan for ten-day stays. Approximately 40 additional Chinese students are on long-term home-stay programs. Students for both programs are selected from all over China. 2007, however, will also mark the 70th anniversary of the Rape of Nanking, Akiba noted. China and some other countries are making films to commemorate the anniversary. Japan expects these films and other expected media attention might fuel anti-Japanese sentiment in China. TOKYO 00005608 002 OF 002 Akiba hoped the filmmakers would &show restraint,8 but was clearly worried that they would not. ¶6. (C) Contacted on September 27 for an update, MOFA China Division Principal Deputy Director Nomura reported that the Yachi-Dai talks had concluded the previous evening with no agreement on a summit. The two sides would continue discussions at the working level. DONOVAN