A/S FORT DISCUSSES IRAN WITH MOFA INTELLIGENCE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005565 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016 TAGS: PINR IR AF JA SUBJECT: A/S FORT DISCUSSES IRAN WITH MOFA INTELLIGENCE AND ANALYSIS SERVICE DIRECTOR GENERAL Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHEIFFER FOR REASONS 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Japan could potentially bring high value to our analysis of events in Iran due to Japan's diplomatic presence in and extensive commercial relations with Tehran, INR A/S Fort told MOFA Intelligence and Analysis Service (IAS) Director General Takeuchi on September 25. In a meeting that focused on Iran, IAS officials shared their belief that fissures are developing between Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad but that it will take years for open conflict to develop. Economic problems constitute the major threat to Ahmadinejad's popularity, but these have not yet cut into his base of support among the urban poor and the rural population. Reformers like former president Rafsanjani have been marginalized and are not a part of the power equation. On Afghanistan, Japan believes the Taliban is regaining strength and that President Karzai may not seek another term. IAS finds troubling his recent complaints that the international community is to blame for his country's problems. A/S Fort and DG Takeuchi discussed possible cooperation in the field of analyzing open source materials, agreeing that the volume of such information makes it challenging to effectively exploit. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) INR Assistant Secretary Randall Fort met September 25 with Director General Haruhisa Takeuchi of MOFA's Intelligence and Analysis Service (IAS) to discuss information-sharing issues. Director General Takeuchi opened the meeting by congratulating A/S Fort on his appointment and welcomed him back to Japan. He expressed great satisfaction over the level of contacts between INR and IAS over the years and hoped relations could be further enhanced. A/S Fort thanked Takeuchi and agreed, noting that during his last tour of duty in Japan in 1989-93, IAS had not existed. INR is pleased the bureau was created, views it as an important sister agency and, like the Japanese, wants to further strengthen the already good relationship between the two. ¶3. (C) Takeuchi explained that while IAS has traditionally focused on developments in East Asia, primarily in China and on the Korean Peninsula, recently his office has begun to take a more global approach, also addressing other regions that potentially touch upon Japan's security, including the Middle East, Central Asia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. As for substantive issues, IAS is looking at energy supplies, natural resources, food and water supplies, terrorism, nonproliferation, among others. Knowing that he would be discussing Asian developments with A/S Fort later in the day, Takeuchi suggested this meeting focus primarily on Iran. -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶4. (C) A/S Fort noted Japan has tremendous advantages to bring to the table as we strive together to get a better picture of what is taking place in Iran. This is because the Japanese have an embassy in Tehran and because many Japanese businessmen from major companies visit the country regularly to do business. MOFA should know that even routine reporting cables from the Japanese Embassy discussing what is going on in the streets, the markets, the media, and on the college campuses are of tremendous interest in Washington. ¶5. (C) For a briefing on Japanese perceptions regarding Iran, Takeuchi turned to IAS Fourth Division Director Akira Muto. Muto stated that in Japan's view, there is a growing conflict between Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad. The reformers, led by former president Rafsanjani and who are opposed to increased conflict with the West, have been marginalized and are not currently part of the power equation. QOFA assesses that Khamenei is trying to maintain control but, at the same time, is working to take into consideration the views of a wide variety of players in Iran. This was most recently demonstrated by the time it took for Iran to reply to the P5 1's offer on nuclear enrichment. Nevertheless, he is trying to maintain his control over the government by delegating functions to trusted advisors and by creating the Council on Diplomatic Strategy (which so far has not proven to be a significant body). However, Khamenei is threatened by Ahmadinejad's rising popularity and it is questionable whether his strategies to maintain control are working. Khamenei seeks to take advantage of Ahmadinejad's popularity but is careful not rely too heavily on it, fearing that if Ahmadinejad grows too popular, his own power will be diminished. ¶6. (C) As for Ahmadinejad, Muto said that his strongest base remains among the urban poor and rural populaces. He is TOKYO 00005565 002 OF 003 trying to consolidate his power and, accordingly, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been permitted to expand its influence into many facets of society. For example, the Japanese have seen the IRGC winning contracts to develop natural gas fields, which means increased flows of cash to revolutionary elements. While there is growing criticism of Ahmadinejad, this has not yet had a destabilizing impact. He continues to seek to expand his power and wants a greater voice in formulating Iran's nuclear policy. The economic problems facing Iran have not yet cost Ahmadinejad any of his support, but might if things do not improve. Muto said that the Japanese Embassy estimates the rates of inflation and unemployment at 20 percent and 40 percent, respectively, far above the officially reported figures of 12 and 20 percent. Recognizing that this is a potential problem for him, Ahmadinejad has eased back on promoting strict religious and social programs so as not to give his opponents two fronts on which to attack him. ¶7. (C) Regarding the medium- to long-term fissures within the Iranian government, Muto pointed to the fact that a conflict appears to be emerging between the Managing and Planning Organization that is running Ahmadinejad's policies and the Ministry of Economy and Finance which, along with the Central Bank, better understands the problems facing the economy. The Ministry and Bank are trying to introduce controls over the economy but are moving very cautiously in order to avoid a direct confrontation with Ahmadinejad and his supporters. Muto speculated it might take several years for this conflict to come into the open. ¶8. (C) Kazuhiro Fujimura, IAS First Division Director, asked about the basis for United States sanctions against banks doing business with Iran, adding that he would like to learn more about the evidence used to justify such sanctions and that Japan would like to know in advance before other sanctions are implemented. A/S Fort replied that sanctions are automatically triggered when any financial institution is detected conducting transactions with proscribed organizations or entities, regardless of the countries involved. Future sanctions against Iran are definitely on the table as part of UNSC deliberations, although it might take some time before consensus is reached. Restrictions on certain financial transactions would almost certainly be included. DCM Donovan noted that the question of sanctions against Iran had recently been discussed by Under Secretary Burns and Vice Foreign Minister Nishida, and that Burns had undertaken to fully consult with Japan. Takeuchi cautioned that any sanctions, even if carefully designed, are likely to have long-term effects on energy supplies and prices. It is consequently critical to calculate where the "tipping point" will be. -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶9. (C) On Afghanistan, Takeuchi noted that the Diet will soon be debating whether to renew the measure which permits Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces to participate in Operation Enduring Freedom and highlighted that MOFA is therefore interested in any information that can be shared about the effectiveness of Japan's contributions. Muto briefed that it is Japan's view that President Karzai might not run for reelection, as he is becoming increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress in his country. In addition, he is beginning to blame the international community for some of Afghanistan's problems. This is a troubling new trend and one that needs to be watched. Japan appreciates all the steps the Coalition has taken to improve security in Afghanistan, but believes the Taliban is regaining strength, and that it is vital that Pakistan and Afghanistan have a good relationship, particularly with regard to border control issues. ¶10. (C) The United States is heavily focused on this issue, replied A/S Fort. He explained that our view is that the Taliban can be categorized into two groups: "Taliban with a capital T", and "taliban with a small t". The "capital T" group is Mullah Omar along with members of his former regime; they are politically motivated and hope to regain power. The "small t" taliban are mostly young, unemployed men who sign on with armed groups, primarily in the south, mainly to earn money. They are not ideologically motivated and Japan hopes they can be integrated back into society by incentives and improved economic conditions. A/S Fort said that the United States agrees on the need for good relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and recognizes this is a very complex relationship. Finally, he noted, the fact that Afghanistan is blaming others for its own problems is nothing TOKYO 00005565 003 OF 003 new and must be kept in perspective. -------------- COOPERATION ON OPEN SOURCES -------------- ¶11. (C) A/S Fort mentioned to Takeuchi that INR is undertaking an initiative to improve the way in which open source reporting is collected and analyzed. The fact that there is so much of it in a wide and increasing number of mediums presents a major challenge. He said he hopes that INR can work with IAS on this problem, due to the fact that open source reporting is not classified and easy to share. Takeuchi agreed that this would be a good idea. He noted that due to its volume, it is not enough to simply search through it by digital or computerized means. Analysts must play a role to fully exploit what is available on the internet and in other open sources. -------------- PARTICIPANTS -------------- ¶12. (C) U.S. participants: - Assistant Secretary Randall M. Fort; - INR/NEA Division Chief John Merrill; - Deputy Chief of Mission Joseph R. Donovan; - Regional Affairs Chief Connie Taube; - Political Officer Evan Reade (note taker). ¶13. (U) Japanese participants: - IAS Director General Haruhisa Takeuchi; - IAS Deputy Director General Shigeo Masutomi; - IAS Fourth Division Director Akira Muto; - IAS First Division Director Kazuhiro Fujimura. ¶14. (U) This cable was cleared by A/S Fort. SCHIEFFER