IRAQI AMBASSADOR CONCERNED ABOUT JAPAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 005514 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/I SATTERFIELD, NEA/I TAECKER NSC FOR D.WILDER, V.CHA OFFICE OF THE VICE PRESIDENT FOR M. KOEHLER DOD/ISA FOR R.LAWLESS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2016 TAGS: EAID PREL IZ JA SUBJECT: IRAQI AMBASSADOR CONCERNED ABOUT JAPAN'S COMMITMENT TO COMPACT WITH IRAQ REF: A. STATE 155973 ¶B. TOKYO 5086 ¶C. SATTERFIELD-READE E-MAILS Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Iraq's Ambassador to Tokyo is concerned that Japan's commitment to playing a leading role in the International Compact With Iraq could falter unless pressed by his government and the United States. He laments the fact that the government of Iraq apparently lacks the depth to pull together the type of plan the Japanese are seeking and is disappointed that Iraqi Minister of Planning Barham Salih did not make a stronger pitch to Japan's Gotaro Ogawa, Ambassador for Iraqi Reconstruction, when the two met at the September 10 Compact meeting in Abu Dhabi. He believes it is critical for Iraq to present a clear plan to the Japanese and for the United States to clearly explain to the Japanese what it is we want them to do. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) At a dinner hosted at his residence on September 19, Iraqi Ambassador to Japan Dr. Ghanim Al-Jumaily emphasized that this is a critical moment in Japan's relationship with Iraq and that an opportunity to "lock in" Japan could be lost if action is not taken. Speaking to Embassy Tokyo Political Officers and Department of Defense Joint Coordination Office representative, Jumaily said he fears Japan might conclude that its contributions to date and the slightly enhanced commitment of its Air Self Defense Forces have "checked the box" as far as continued involvement in the Coalition is concerned. Japan may become "distracted" by regional issues of more immediate importance to Tokyo and begin to lessen its involvement in Iraq when it is needed more than ever, he said. ¶3. (C) Embassy Political Officer explained that it is our understanding that Japan fully supports the Compact but wants to make sure it is an Iraqi-led initiative (REFTEL B). In other words, the Japanese are waiting to hear from Iraq exactly what type of programs they envision and what type of assistance is needed. Jumaily replied that he is aware of this, but lamented the fact that his government seems to lack the capacity and is too poorly organized to formulate and present such plans on its own. He questioned why Foreign Minister Zebari isn't a member of the Iraqi committee that is addressing Compact issues given the fact that it is all about international relations and assistance. He had also been disappointed, he said, when he heard from Japan's Ambassador in charge of Iraq Reconstruction Gotaro Ogawa that during the September 10 Compact Preparatory Group meeting in Abu Dhabi Iraqi Minister of Planning Barham Salih had not made a strong pitch for Japanese assistance, nor had he enunciated a clear Iraqi policy. ¶4. (C) What is needed, said Jumaily, is for his government to present a reasonable program to the Japanese and for the United States to clearly state to the Japanese exactly what it is we expect them to do, i.e., play a leading or THE leading role in the Compact. Jumaily said that Iraq knows the United States and Great Britain will remain engaged on the security front for as long as it takes to stabilize Iraq, but is fearful that Japan may waver on remaining committed on the economic assistance front. In his view, only the Japanese are positioned to pick up the ball on economic issues. His reasoning: they have the resources to do so; they do not have the "political baggage" that the U.S. and U.K. have when approaching other countries for contributions; it is in Japan's self-interest to develop ties to Iraq in order to assure access to energy resources; and playing a leading role to promote economic development in Iraq will enhance Japan's image as a leading player in the international community, further promoting its effort to win a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Jumaily may be overstating the possibility that the Japanese will lessen their commitment to Iraq, but Embassy concurs that nearly constant nudging is required at MOFA and elsewhere to maintain the momentum. DCM will meet on September 26 with Ambassador Ogawa to convey S/I Senior Coordinator Satterfield's invitation to attend the CENTCOM Conference on Iraq in Warsaw on October 3 (REFTEL A). We understand that Japan's role in the Compact was discussed when Ogawa met in Washington this past week with Ambassador Satterfield (REF C) and are prepared to reiterate Department's message to Ogawa and others. SCHIEFFER