LDP ELECTION OPENS, AS PARTIES AGREE TO ELECT NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005140 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: LDP ELECTION OPENS, AS PARTIES AGREE TO ELECT NEW PM ON SEPTEMBER 26 REF: A. TOKYO 4561 ¶B. TOKYO 5017 Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SHIEFFER. REASONS 1.4 (B)(D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Prime Minister Koizumi, in an apparent concession to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), has changed the opening date for the Extraordinary Diet session from September 22 to September 26, according to the press. Embassy Tokyo media contacts attributed the flip flop on scheduling to a lack of coordination within the ruling coalition, rather than public appeals from the opposition DPJ. They expressed concern that SHINZO Abe, the presumptive next prime minister, did not have anyone to run interference for him on these kinds of issues. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential campaign opens this morning, September 8, with ABE the odds-on favorite for the September 20 election. End summary. ¶2. (U) Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) reached a final agreement September 7 to convene the Extraordinary Diet session to choose the next prime minister on September 26, according to Embassy Tokyo contacts. The LDP will hold its party presidential election on September 22 (ref A). Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe, the presumptive favorite in that race, will almost certainly be elected prime minister on the opening day of the new legislative session, due to the LDP's dominance in the Diet. The new date is seen as a compromise with the DPJ, which will hold its own leadership election on September 25. Commenting on the negotiations to set the new date, LDP Upper House Secretary General Toranosuke Katayama noted that it was not good for the new administration to start off on the wrong foot with the opposition. ¶3. (U) Prime Minister Koizumi had originally announced on August 29 that the new Diet session would open on September 22, a move that was widely seen as calculated to draw attention away from the DPJ leadership contest. Shortly after that announcement, DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kozo Watanabe criticized the ruling coalition publicly for ignoring the wishes of the largest opposition party and denying them the opportunity to discuss their plans for the upcoming session at their convention on September 25. According to press reports at the time, the DPJ was planning to boycott the Diet plenary session if the new prime minister was elected before the DPJ had a chance to choose its own new leadership. ¶4. (C) Despite reports to the contrary from LDP Embassy contacts (ref B) and the press, Prime Minister Koizumi stated publicly on September 5 that he had never decided to convoke the new Diet session on September 22 and called for consultation with the opposition. Media contacts close to the Prime Minister's Office told the Embassy that while Koizumi and ABE had actually agreed to convoke the Diet on September 22, ABE supporters within the LDP wanted to move the date back a bit further to have time to lobby for government and party posts in the new administration, something ABE specifically wanted to avoid. According to those contacts, however, none of Abe's supporters stepped up to finalize the arrangements. Isao Iijima, Koizumi's executive assistant, is said to have tried to fill the void, but it was already too late to blunt the public criticism from the DPJ. Embassy contacts have expressed concern repeatedly over what the absence of a single Iijima-like figure in the ABE camp portends for his administration. ¶5. (U) According to the timeline announced by the LDP, the new prime minister will be elected on September 26, the opening day of the new Diet session. The new cabinet lineup will be announced the following day. The new prime minister will give his policy speech before the Diet on the new cabinet on September 29. Ruling coalition partner Komeito will finalize the ballot for its own leadership selection on TOKYO 00005140 002 OF 002 September 25 as well, although those results are unlikely to be announced until the party convention on September 30. ¶6. (U) The LDP election campaign to determine the new prime minister will be launched at a press conference featuring the candidates on September 8. The candidates, who will register earlier that morning, must have a minimum of 20 supporters in the Diet in order to be placed on the ballot. Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Finance Minister Sadokazu Tanigaki are widely expected to run against Abe, although neither appears to have a credible chance. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll concluded on September 3, ABE enjoys 55 percent support among the general populace, and 74 percent support among LDP supporters. Earlier polls showed an 80 percent support rate among actual LDP Diet members. Aso and Tanigaki have never risen above the mid-single digits. SCHIEFFER