KOMEITO LEADER TO RESIGN, LDP WEIGHS IN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004876 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: KOMEITO LEADER TO RESIGN, LDP WEIGHS IN ON SUCCESSOR REF: A. TOKYO 4231 ¶B. TOKYO 4739 Classified By: CDA JOSEPH R. DONOVAN. REASONS 1.4 (B)(D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Takenori Kanzaki has announced he will step down in September after eight years as leader of New Komeito, part of a leadership reshuffle that may have wide-ranging implications for Japan's ruling coalition. Akihiro Ota and Toshiko Hamayotsu have been widely touted by the press and Embassy contacts as possible successors. Kazuo Kitagawa, currently Komeito's lone Cabinet minister, has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba. These leadership changes, the first since 1998, are not expected to have any immediate effect on relations with the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), Komeito's senior partner in the coalition. Embassy contacts from both parties, however, have expressed serious reservations about Ota's ability to work with the LDP in leading coalition candidates to victory in next year's unified local and Upper House Diet elections. End summary. Kanzaki Out -------------- ¶2. (U) New Komeito leader Takenori Kanzaki revealed his intention to resign as party Representative in an interview with Asahi Shimbun, published on August 24. Embassy contacts within the party have confirmed those reports. In what is being billed as a generational change, the 64-year-old Kanzaki is reportedly stepping down to strengthen the party leadership in advance of what is expected to be a series of tough electoral campaigns against the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Kanzaki's announcement was not entirely unexpected; he has been rumored to be in poor health for some time and the Embassy has long heard rumors that he was ready to pass on the baton after eight years. The timing makes sense as well, given that the LDP will elect a new leader of its own on September 20 (ref A). Successor Undecided -------------- ¶3. (C) According to press reports, Representative Kanzaki, is planning to turn over the reins to Lower House Diet member Akihiro Ota, 60. Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, 70, is to cede the party's number two spot to a much younger Kazuo Kitagawa, 53, Minister for Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The reports say these leadership changes were decided during an informal weekend meeting of leaders from New Komeito and its primary support organization, the Buddhist lay group Soka Gakkai. Embassy contacts acknowledge ongoing discussions with Soka Gakkai regarding the new leadership, but caution that no final decisions have been reached. Komeito is scheduled to hold a convention on September 30. The deadline for nominations is September 19. ¶4. (C) Acting Secretary General Ota, who was reelected to his own seat by a slim majority in last year's Lower House Diet election, is not particularly well regarded within the party, according to Embassy contacts in both Komeito and the LDP. Once considered the "Prince" of Komeito and the favorite of Soka Gakkai leader Daisuke Ikeda -- he came up through the ranks as chief of the Soka Gakkai Youth Division -- Ota's star has faded since Komeito lost three Diet seats in the 2005 election and failed to reach its stated goal of ten million votes. According to Komeito Upper House Secretary General Shozo Kusukawa, the Soka Gakkai Women's SIPDIS Division will play a critical role in the selection process, given their importance to the party in getting out the vote. Acting Representative Toshiko Hamayotsu might be a more logical choice, he thought, given her obvious appeal as a woman and her ability to attract new voters to the party. What Next for the Coalition? -------------- ¶5. (C) Press reports have already begun to question the future of the LDP-Komeito alliance, pointing to stark differences between Komeito's generally pacifist outlook and the more conservative platform of Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, likely successor to Prime Minister Junichiro TOKYO 00004876 002 OF 002 Koizumi. ABE just recently called for complete constitutional revision and a lifting of the ban on collective self-defense (ref B). Embassy contacts in both parties have minimized those differences, but raised doubts of their own concerning Ota's ability to work closely with Abe in leading the coalition to victory in next year's unified local and Upper House Diet elections. LDP Diet member Kozo Yamamoto told the Embassy that ABE would need to select a Chief Cabinet Secretary with strong ties to Komeito to ensure good cooperation. Komeito's Kusukawa assured the Embassy that his party is committed to a strong U.S.-Japan alliance, regardless of the outcome of the current leadership shuffle. ¶6. (C) The LDP leadership has tried to limit the fallout from Komeito's internal power struggles by weighing in with party leaders and Soka Gakkai. According to press reports, Chief Cabinet Secretary ABE personally conveyed to Komeito his preference for Hamayotsu over Ota. Isao Iijima, powerful secretary to Prime Minister Koizumi, confided to the Embassy SIPDIS that a coalition led by ABE and Ota would perform disastrously in next year's elections. With the LDP already facing the very real possibility that it will lose a number of seats in the Upper House next July, the best scenario would be for Kanzaki to remain in his position for one more year. Absent that, Iijima thought, it would be better to leave the position vacant and let Acting Representative Hamayotsu lead the party through the elections. Iijima said he had passed that same message to Komeito's Kusukawa and Soka Gakkai liaison Yorio Yahiro. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Most press reports regarding Komeito leadership changes appear to be premature, although the issues they raise are clearly on the table in discussions between party leaders and Soka Gakkai. The ability of LDP leaders to influence the final selection process is less clear. Komeito contacts have routinely told us that party-wide discussions, such as those likely to take place at the September 30 convention, are more or less just for show; the real decisions are made behind the scenes, at the highest levels. Komeito and the LDP will do well to keep any minor tears in the fabric of the coalition under wraps as well. While the changes at Komeito don't seem to pose any immediate danger to the coalition, potential strains between ABE and the new Komeito leader may work to the detriment of both parties as they prepare for a bruising campaign season next year. DONOVAN