KOMEITO LEADER TO RESIGN, LDP WEIGHS IN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004876

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO LEADER TO RESIGN, LDP WEIGHS IN ON
SUCCESSOR

REF: A. TOKYO 4231


B. TOKYO 4739

Classified By: CDA JOSEPH R. DONOVAN. REASONS 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. Takenori Kanzaki has announced he will
step down in September after eight years as leader of New
Komeito, part of a leadership reshuffle that may have
wide-ranging implications for Japan's ruling coalition.
Akihiro Ota and Toshiko Hamayotsu have been widely touted by
the press and Embassy contacts as possible successors. Kazuo
Kitagawa, currently Komeito's lone Cabinet minister, has been
mentioned as a possible replacement for Secretary General
Tetsuzo Fuyushiba. These leadership changes, the first since
1998, are not expected to have any immediate effect on
relations with the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP),
Komeito's senior partner in the coalition. Embassy contacts
from both parties, however, have expressed serious
reservations about Ota's ability to work with the LDP in
leading coalition candidates to victory in next year's
unified local and Upper House Diet elections. End summary.

Kanzaki Out
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2. (U) New Komeito leader Takenori Kanzaki revealed his
intention to resign as party Representative in an interview
with Asahi Shimbun, published on August 24. Embassy contacts
within the party have confirmed those reports. In what is
being billed as a generational change, the 64-year-old
Kanzaki is reportedly stepping down to strengthen the party
leadership in advance of what is expected to be a series of
tough electoral campaigns against the opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ). Kanzaki's announcement was not
entirely unexpected; he has been rumored to be in poor health
for some time and the Embassy has long heard rumors that he
was ready to pass on the baton after eight years. The timing
makes sense as well, given that the LDP will elect a new
leader of its own on September 20 (ref A).

Successor Undecided
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3. (C) According to press reports, Representative Kanzaki,
is planning to turn over the reins to Lower House Diet member
Akihiro Ota, 60. Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, 70, is
to cede the party's number two spot to a much younger Kazuo
Kitagawa, 53, Minister for Land, Infrastructure, and
Transport. The reports say these leadership changes were
decided during an informal weekend meeting of leaders from
New Komeito and its primary support organization, the
Buddhist lay group Soka Gakkai. Embassy contacts acknowledge
ongoing discussions with Soka Gakkai regarding the new
leadership, but caution that no final decisions have been
reached. Komeito is scheduled to hold a convention on
September 30. The deadline for nominations is September 19.


4. (C) Acting Secretary General Ota, who was reelected to
his own seat by a slim majority in last year's Lower House
Diet election, is not particularly well regarded within the
party, according to Embassy contacts in both Komeito and the
LDP. Once considered the "Prince" of Komeito and the
favorite of Soka Gakkai leader Daisuke Ikeda -- he came up
through the ranks as chief of the Soka Gakkai Youth Division
-- Ota's star has faded since Komeito lost three Diet seats
in the 2005 election and failed to reach its stated goal of
ten million votes. According to Komeito Upper House
Secretary General Shozo Kusukawa, the Soka Gakkai Women's

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Division will play a critical role in the selection process,
given their importance to the party in getting out the vote.
Acting Representative Toshiko Hamayotsu might be a more
logical choice, he thought, given her obvious appeal as a
woman and her ability to attract new voters to the party.

What Next for the Coalition?
--------------

5. (C) Press reports have already begun to question the
future of the LDP-Komeito alliance, pointing to stark
differences between Komeito's generally pacifist outlook and
the more conservative platform of Chief Cabinet Secretary
Shinzo Abe, likely successor to Prime Minister Junichiro

TOKYO 00004876 002 OF 002


Koizumi. Abe just recently called for complete
constitutional revision and a lifting of the ban on
collective self-defense (ref B). Embassy contacts in both
parties have minimized those differences, but raised doubts
of their own concerning Ota's ability to work closely with
Abe in leading the coalition to victory in next year's
unified local and Upper House Diet elections. LDP Diet
member Kozo Yamamoto told the Embassy that Abe would need to
select a Chief Cabinet Secretary with strong ties to Komeito
to ensure good cooperation. Komeito's Kusukawa assured the
Embassy that his party is committed to a strong U.S.-Japan
alliance, regardless of the outcome of the current leadership
shuffle.


6. (C) The LDP leadership has tried to limit the fallout
from Komeito's internal power struggles by weighing in with
party leaders and Soka Gakkai. According to press reports,
Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe personally conveyed to Komeito
his preference for Hamayotsu over Ota. Isao Iijima, powerful
secretary to Prime Minister Koizumi, confided to the Embassy

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that a coalition led by Abe and Ota would perform
disastrously in next year's elections. With the LDP already
facing the very real possibility that it will lose a number
of seats in the Upper House next July, the best scenario
would be for Kanzaki to remain in his position for one more
year. Absent that, Iijima thought, it would be better to
leave the position vacant and let Acting Representative
Hamayotsu lead the party through the elections. Iijima said
he had passed that same message to Komeito's Kusukawa and
Soka Gakkai liaison Yorio Yahiro.

Comment
--------------

7. (C) Most press reports regarding Komeito leadership
changes appear to be premature, although the issues they
raise are clearly on the table in discussions between party
leaders and Soka Gakkai. The ability of LDP leaders to
influence the final selection process is less clear. Komeito
contacts have routinely told us that party-wide discussions,
such as those likely to take place at the September 30
convention, are more or less just for show; the real
decisions are made behind the scenes, at the highest levels.
Komeito and the LDP will do well to keep any minor tears in
the fabric of the coalition under wraps as well. While the
changes at Komeito don't seem to pose any immediate danger to
the coalition, potential strains between Abe and the new
Komeito leader may work to the detriment of both parties as
they prepare for a bruising campaign season next year.
DONOVAN