S/P DIRECTOR KRASNER DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 004823 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR S/P E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON IR KN KS CH JA SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR KRASNER DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES WITH NORTH AMERICAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR GENERAL KAWAI REF: TOKYO 4630 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOSEPH R. DONOVAN FOR REASONS 1.4(B),( D) ¶1. (C) Summary. In a meeting on August 9 with S/P Director Stephen Krasner, MOFA North American Affairs Bureau DG Kawai expressed appreciation for our efforts in making Prime Minister Koizumi's recent trip to the United States a success. Kawai shared his expectation that Koizumi's successor will focus on improving ties with Japan's regional neighbors. The impending leadership change in South Korea and the Hu Administration,s growing confidence and stability in the PRC should also contribute to better relations. Kawai suggested a two pillar strategy for discussing China: restarting a sub-Cabinet level meeting that would include the Department, USTR and Treasury to focus on China's economy, and using the Strategic Dialogue between Deputy Foreign Minister Nishida and U/S Burns to discuss security and military matters. S/P Director Krasner briefed Kawai on the Partnership for Democratic Governance, and Kawai agreed that coordination would be beneficial. They closed the meeting with a short discussion of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with Kawai promising that Japan will remain firm with Iran. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs North American Affairs Bureau Director General Chikao Kawai hosted a luncheon August 9 for visiting Policy Planning Director Dr. Stephen Krasner. Kawai opened by expressing appreciation for Prime Minister Koizumi,s successful visit to the United States. Turning to regional matters, Kawai noted that Japan will have a new Prime Minister by early October, and a major issue on his plate will be better management of Japan,s relations with Asian countries. Japan-South Korea relations improved dramatically under Kim Dae-jung when he visited Japan in 1998, delivered a speech to the Diet and avoided talk of history. Kim, aided by China,s focus on history, effectively reconfigured the balance of power in East Asia, placing Japan and South Korea in a team against China. However, the Roh Administration has changed the balance, and is siding with China more frequently against Japan. Following North Korea,s July 5 missile launches and a swing back in ROK public opinion, Japan is trying to separate South Korea and China in order to preserve good relations with South Korea, he explained. ¶3. (C) First North America Division Director Takeo Mori added that generational change in South Korea is the "only chance we see" to soften bilateral relations. The younger generation was not suppressed by the Japanese military regime and is interested in Japanese culture. As the younger generation grows into positions of power that can influence their elders, Japan and South Korea could see better relations in five to ten years. Speaking frankly, S/P Director Krasner wondered if the calculations were too zero-sum. From the United States, perspective, good, cooperative relations between Japan and China and Japan and South Korea would be universally beneficial. China,s Changing Calculus -------------- ¶4. (C) U.S. commitment to the region is very important to both Japan and China, Kawai underscored. In the 1980,s through the mid-90,s, China supported the U.S. presence because it prevented Japan from building up its military. Now, because of Taiwan, China views the U.S.-Japan alliance with suspicion and is trying to weaken our bond. Chinese leaders appear content with the status quo, but they remain cautious about our alliance. China is now sending the message that it is looking forward to working with Koizumi,s successor, Kawai continued. As the Hu Administration grows in stability and confidence, it will be able to take a more practical approach toward Japan and will not need to rely so heavily on anti-Japanese sentiment to unify the country. Business Sentiment Toward China Changing -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Five years ago, Japanese businesses complained that China was taking unfair advantage of the economic system, Kawai continued. Two to three years ago, however, their tone changed because they were making profits in China. However, the anti-Japan demonstrations in China in April 2005 underscored the "fragile situation" and business leaders are now more reluctant to invest. Toyota,s CEO told Kawai that Toyota is fully committed to its investment in the United States but is hedging its bets in China. ¶6. (C) In conversations with Diet members, Kawai has impressed upon them the interdependence of China,s economy. If Japan wants to strike at China, it does not have to use military force. Instead, Japan can use economic tools. If China attacks Taiwan, Japan could cut off trade and investment. S/P Director Krasner warned against Japan relying too heavily on the concept because economic sanctions against China would have serious repercussions on other countries around the world, including here in Japan. The DCM added that, unlike North Korea, Taiwan is a highly emotional issue for China. Kawai acknowledged the point and added that he is personally very cautious about the idea of entering into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. Although it would be good to take advantage of China,s economy and make China more dependent on the global economy, Japan should limit its dependence on China. If Japan or other Asian countries enter into an FTA with China, any fluctuation in the Chinese economy would be easily transmitted, Kawai stated. Bilateral Talks on China: Two Pillars -------------- ¶7. (C) Reiterating that China will be one of the most important issues to tackle for Japan,s new administration, Kawai suggested "a two pillar strategy": using the sub-Cabinet level meeting that includes the Department, USTR and Treasury to focus on China's economy and using the Strategic Dialogue between Deputy Foreign Minister Nishida and U/S Burns to discuss security and military matters. Marxist theory holds that the economic structure will influence a country,s political structure, but China now has a free market economy and is still holding on to communism, Kawai commented. Democracy in China will not occur overnight and, even if democracy does take root, it will not rid China of nationalist elements. In a new democracy, the nationalists could become even more dangerous, Kawai warned. Partnership for Democratic Governance -------------- --- ¶8. (C) S/P Krasner briefed Kawai on the Partnership for Democratic Governance, emphasizing support for the idea in Washington and other countries he had already visited. He explained that the United States hoped to convene a meeting in the fall with core countries and welcomed Japan,s participation. Depending on the outcome, perhaps another meeting could be held later this year, possibly for a signing ceremony. Kawai pointed out that one goal of Japan,s Official Development Assistance (ODA) program is to support democracies and agreed that coordination would be beneficial. For example, one of Japan,s ongoing projects is helping Vietnam develop a commercial code. This kind of support to democratic institutions is particularly important in post-conflict places like Iraq and Afghanistan, Kawai stated. He predicted that his ODA colleagues would support the idea, as well. (See reftel for details of S/P Krasner's meeting with International Cooperation Bureau officials to discuss the Partnership proposal.) ASEAN and Chinese Influence -------------- ¶9. (C) On Southeast Asia, Kawai noted that Indonesia had been the center of ASEAN until the 1990,s, but leadership of ASEAN appeared to be moving northward to Thailand. Although Thailand,s population is smaller than Indonesia,s, its economy is larger and it is coming under greater Chinese influence. Japan should use its ODA budget strategically and offer limited amounts to these smaller countries to counter China,s influence. If we reconvene the sub-Cabinet level meetings, perhaps we could use the venue to discuss ODA strategies, Kawai suggested. On Burma, Japan shares the U.S. concerns on human rights and democracy but feels compelled to remain engaged in order to combat Chinese influence. Japan Will Be Firm with Iran -------------- ¶10. (C) Kawai and Director Krasner closed the meeting with a short discussion of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including Lebanon and Iran. Kawai pointed out that Japan has interests in Iran,s Azadegan oil project but remains committed to solving the nuclear problem. Kawai was certain that Koizumi and Foreign Minister Aso would not make any concessions. Japan does not want to lose its influence in Iran, and would like to maintain a bilateral link to Iran, but he promised Japan will be firm on the nuclear issue. ¶11. (SBU) Participants U.S. -------------- Policy Planning Director Stephen D. Krasner Embassy Tokyo Deputy Chief of Mission Joseph Donovan Policy Planning Member Philip Levy Embassy Tokyo Political Officer Tandy Matsuda (notetaker) Japan -------------- North American Affairs Bureau Director General Chikao Kawai First North America Division Director Takeo Mori First North America Division Officer Yoshitake ¶12. (U) S/P staff cleared this cable. DONOVAN