DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/11/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 004548 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/11/06 INDEX: (1) Futenma is not dangerous: US consul general 2 (2) Main points from interview with US Consul General Maher 2 (3) US consul general's remarks show "no feeling for local residents"; Civic, peace groups angered; Local communities to protest, call for his resignation 3 (4) Interview with Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president: Prime minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 would cause more trouble 4 (5) As last resort LDP factions to back Abe in LDP presidential race, let members cast votes independently; Factions to lose substance unavoidably 5 (6) Interview with University of Tokyo Professor Kiichi Fujiwara on foreign and security policies of Koizumi and successor 6 (7) Japan to propose East Asia EPA initiative with eye on establishment of economic zone comparable to NAFTA, EU: Japan desperate to take initiative; China, South Korea ahead of Japan 9 ARTICLES: (1) Futenma is not dangerous: US consul general RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 1) (Full) August 11, 2006 Two years ago on Aug. 13, a US military helicopter crashed on the campus of Okinawa International University. Ahead of the incident's second anniversary, Kevin Maher, the newly posted US consul general in Okinawa, responded with an interview yesterday. Asked about the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station located in a densely populated area, Maher said Futenma airfield is not special as compared with other airports in Japan. "I don't think Futenma is dangerous in particular," he added. Meanwhile, he stressed again that the airfield would have to be relocated at an early date in order to resolve local concerns and noise problems. Ginowan City, which hosts Futenma airfield, and Okinawa Prefecture have expressed concerns over the danger of Futenma airfield. The Japanese government has also underscored the necessity of relocating the airfield as early as possible. As it stands, Maher's remarks will likely create a stir. "When we think about functions, there's no need in particular to �00A;relocate Futenma airfield," Maher said in the interview. Maher also said, "The airfield's (deterrent) capabilities are enough with its current functions." With this, the consul general, when it comes to the planned relocation of Futenma airfield, indicated his view that there would be no problem about the airfield at present from the perspective of base operation. In addition, Maher also explained that the United States agreed to relocate Futenma airfield in consideration of local voices in Okinawa insisting that the airfield should be relocated. Referring to the status quo of Futenma airfield, Maher denied that the airfield is dangerous. However, he stressed that the United States would push ahead with the planned relocation of Futenma airfield in accordance with an agreement reached between the Japanese and US governments. "We understand that they (local residents) are worried about flying in the skies (over residential areas)," Maher said. "That's why," he added, "the best solution is to relocate Futenma airfield to Camp Schwab as soon as possible." In the wake of the helicopter crash, Japan and the United States TOKYO 00004548 002 OF 010 have been holding consultations in their intergovernmental joint committee to reroute US military aircraft (to and from the Camp Schwab relocation site). Two years later, however, the Japanese and US governments have yet to reach a conclusion. Asked about this, Maher indicated that the two governments would release a report in several weeks. Maher also stressed that the US military had periodically carried out coordination on safe flight paths before the crash took place. "When it comes to whether the flight paths will change in the (joint committee's) report, I am not sure they will necessarily change." (2) Main points from interview with US Consul General Maher RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Full) August 11, 2006 The following is a gist of the Ryukyu Shimpo's interview yesterday with US Consul General Okinawa Kevin Maher: -- What steps has the United States taken since the US military helicopter crash at Okinawa International University? Maher: We're expecting a report in several weeks (on the coordination of flight paths). When it comes to whether the flight paths will change after the report is released, I don't necessarily know if the flight paths will change. We've periodically made coordination for the safest possible flight routes. -- Do you recognize Futenma airfield to be dangerous? Maher: When we take a look at other airports in Japan, even in the case of military airports and civilian airports, many of them are far more densely populated than in the case of Futenma. Futenma is not special when we look at statistical figures. But if we show such statistical figures, we can't persuade people living around Futenma. I know that. We don't think Futenma is a particularly dangerous airfield. But we know you are worried about flying over the airfield. So we also think it would be the best way to relocate Futenma to Camp Schwab as soon as possible. When we think about functions, there's no need in particular to relocate the airfield. If Futenma maintains its functions at the present level, its (deterrent) capabilities are enough. -- There are that many buildings near Futenma. Even so, do you think there is no problem about flying helicopters? Maher: The problem is that there's the noise problem, looking at it from the perspective in the surrounding area. We often hear that they are worried about safety or opposed to the airfield. We know that, so we think it would be better to relocate Futenma. The area is now densely populated, so there was a request from Okinawa at first. After hearing that request, the United States also judged it would be better to relocate Futenma as soon as possible so as not to trouble local communities. (3) US consul general's remarks show "no feeling for local residents"; Civic, peace groups angered; Local communities to protest, call for his resignation RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 3) (Abridged) Eve., August 11, 2006 TOKYO 00004548 003 OF 010 US Consul General Kevin Maher, currently posted in Okinawa Prefecture, brought about a backlash today from local communities in the vicinity of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station over his remarks in a recent Ryukyu Shimpo interview held nearly two years after the crash of a (Futenma-based) US military helicopter on the campus of Okinawa International University. "I don't think Futenma airfield is dangerous in particular," Maher said in the interview. "Actually," one local resident voiced his anger, "an accident took place." He stated, "The remark is unacceptable." A peace group in the prefecture also said, "The remark has fueled the anger of local people at the helicopter crash, so we will file a severe protest." With this, the group will strongly call for Maher to resign. Touching on the crash of a US military chopper at Okinawa International University in 2004, Zenji Shimada, who heads a group of local residents in a class action lawsuit against Futenma airfield's aircraft roars, noted that Maher must have been aware of the helicopter crash. "In extreme terms," Shimada said, "he is telling us to live in danger." He added, "That goes beyond a perception gap." He indicated he was infuriated. "Even Defense Secretary Rumsfeld recognized the airfield to be dangerous. So it's strange that the consul general here said such a thing. He doesn't think of people in the city of Ginowan as humans." This critical comment came from a local community chief of Ginowan City exposed to Futenma airfield's terrible noise. "A helicopter from Futenma base crashed at the university, and we were terrified," said a 46-year-old woman living along the fence of Futenma base. She went on, "No matter how many years may pass, this will remain a scar in our hearts." She added: "The Japanese and US governments have acknowledged the danger of Futenma base, and they have agreed to relocate the base. He has distorted the fact with the US government's selfish logic." A local peace group leader said, "A helicopter actually crashed, but he says the airfield is not dangerous." He continued: "It's outrageous to think that way. He means to say he wouldn't care even if people in the prefecture were killed by US military bases. He doesn't think over those incidents and accidents brought about by US military personnel in the prefecture. That's the US military first." (4) Interview with Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president: Prime minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 would cause more trouble YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) August 11, 2006 Questioner: Rumor has it that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will visit Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15. Yamasaki: Since the prime minister's Yasukuni visits cause many problems, I once said that he should not go. I think he is not at all aware he is doing something wrong and believes he has just implemented the pledge (to visit the shrine) he made in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election. He is acting based on his beliefs. Questioner: Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe paid homage at the shrine in April. TOKYO 00004548 004 OF 010 Yamasaki: I don't understand why he went there secretly. He might have thought that his Yasukuni visit would cause some problems. Questioner: China and South Korea have refused to hold summit meetings due to the prime minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine. Yamasaki: That's their choice. Interference in internal affairs will change nothing. Questioner: How do you view a former Imperial Household Agency chief's memo writing that Emperor Showa expressed displeasure with the enshrinement of Class-A war criminals in Yasukuni? Yamasaki: I think it's significant in the sense that the memo makes it clear that the enshrinement of Class-A war criminals was the reason for (the Emperor Showa's cancellation of Yasukuni visits). I think Class-A war criminals should be unenshrined, but that's something for Yasukuni to decide on. Since there is a view in the Japan War-Bereaved Families Association calling for removing the Class-A war criminals from Yasukuni Shrine, I am watching developments. Questioner: You have advocated the need for a new memorial facility. Yamasaki: There is a limit to making Yasukuni Shrine the only national war memorial. Ordinary citizens who died in war are not enshrined in Yasukuni. I think it is good to have a national memorial at which everybody can pay homage without feeling uncomfortable. Questioner: One idea is that the Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery should be expanded. Yamasaki: Since the idea is designed to make the cemetery a park, I think that's a good idea. There are three candidate sites: Kitanomaru Park, Shinjuku-gyoen, and Chidorigafuchi. Questioner: How about the idea of turning Yasukuni Shrine into a nonreligious corporation? Yamasaki: We tried to do so by making the so-called Yasukuni Shrine Bill (designed to place the Shinto shrine under the state control). I think Yasukuni Shrine will oppose it. Doing so would also be constitutionally difficult. I think turning the shrine into a nonreligious corporation would be more difficult than unenshrining Class-A war criminals from the shrine. This is easier said than done, though. (5) As last resort LDP factions to back Abe in LDP presidential race, let members cast votes independently; Factions to lose substance unavoidably NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) August 11, 2006 With the lineup of candidates for the September Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election generally decided, LDP factions having no presidential candidate have made up their mind as to what kind of action they should take. As last resort to maintain factional unity, they have considered two measures: One is to back Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe in the presidential race; and the other is to let their members cast their votes independently. Since TOKYO 00004548 005 OF 010 factions are unable to get key posts as they used to in the old days in return for their support, the LDP's factions will inevitably further lose significance in the upcoming presidential race. "If Mr. Nukaga wants to run in the race at any cost, I will have to support him, but we should not let him do run," yesterday said Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP caucus in the House of Councilors and influential member of the Tsushima faction. Aoki revealed that Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga had all but given up on running in the race. Aoki and Yuji Tsushima, who heads a LDP faction to which Nukaga and Aoki belong, held a meeting with Nukaga and conveyed him the faction's policy, letting Nukaga determine whether he would run or not. The expectation is that Nukaga will soon announce his intention not to run and that the faction will let its members decide on how to vote. The Tsushima faction -- led at one time by such powerful prime ministers as Kakuei Tanaka and Noboru Takeshita -- has now completely changed. Since some junior and mid-level members have distanced themselves from the faction, the move to field Nukaga in the presidential race never became a mighty swell for uniting the faction. In a study session yesterday, the faction adopted a set of policy proposals, titled "Creation and Crystallization of New Power." Regarding the prime minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the report points out that it is necessary to give consideration to those who died in the war, preventing the issue from becoming a diplomatic issue. It does not refer to the propriety of visits to Yasukuni Shrine by the prime minister, making it easy for its members to support Abe. It also emphasizes the need for measures for "single-seat constituencies" in the Upper House election next year. In a meeting yesterday of the Yamasaki faction, LDP acting policy chief stressed: "It is certain that an Abe government will be inaugurated. Our faction needs a communication channel to the new government. I will back Mr. Abe," Taku Yamasaki said, "I will listen to the faction's view." In the Yamasaki faction, in addition to Amari, LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe and Yoshinori Ono have decided to back Abe. If Yamasaki runs in the race, the faction will unavoidably split. Yamasaki will therefore give up on running. He will announce in a faction meeting on Aug. 17 his intention not to run for the presidency. Bunmei Ibuki, who heads another LDP faction, told reporters yesterday that his faction would support Abe. The faction will formally decide in a meeting on Aug. 24 to back Abe. Prior to yesterday's meeting, Ibuki met with LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa, who is close to Abe, and explained his faction's policy proposals. Abe then told reporters yesterday that he could agree with policy proposals made by the Ibuki faction. In the Niwa-Koga faction, Makoto Koga, who was an active leader of the anti-Abe group, has now shifted to being an Abe supporter. Most of the faction members back Abe even though some support Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and Foreign Minister Taro Aso. At a meeting last night, junior and mid-level lawmakers from the Niwa-Koga, Tanigaki and former Kono factions confirmed that they would not hold any meeting before the presidential election. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nikai conveyed Takebe in early this month of his support for Abe. They appear to be trying to get key government and LDP posts by TOKYO 00004548 006 OF 010 announcing their support for Abe. (6) Interview with University of Tokyo Professor Kiichi Fujiwara on foreign and security policies of Koizumi and successor ASAHI (Page 11) (Full) August 10, 2006 Priority to US Koizumi uses US as tool for domestic affairs, foreign policy lacks strategy -- In the five years under the Koizumi administration, tectonic movement has taken place in international politics, as represented by the launch of the so-called long war by the Bush administration in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the United States on Sept. ¶11. How do you evaluate the foreign policy of the Koizumi administration? To put it plainly, there has been no "Koizumi diplomacy." He is a politician with expertise on domestic policies. He is said to have contributed to strengthening relations with the US. Prime Minister Koizumi is often compared with former Prime Minister Nakasone, who also placed importance on the US. But Prime Minister Nakasone also succeeded in establishing favorable ties with China. He considered how to use the US as a "diplomatic tool" to enhance Japan's national interests. For Prime Minister Koizumi, though, the US is a "tool for domestic affairs." The prime minister winning trust from the US president can exert overwhelming influence over domestic politics in the nation. There is something deep in what Prime Minister Koizumi says regarding domestic politics. But foreign policy is low on his list of priorities, and his diplomatic approaches are makeshift. -- A former senior member of the Bush administration also said: "His diplomatic style lacks strategy." But the prime minister made important policy decisions; for instance, he changed the Japan-US alliance in nature. Japan's conventional foreign policy was based on the Yoshida doctrine of placing emphasis on light armaments and the Japan-US alliance. Japan depended on US nuclear deterrence in dealing with matters involving the Far East but implemented its own policy based on economic cooperation toward other regions. But Prime Minister Koizumi judged it necessary to use Washington's power in order for Japan to exert influence over other countries. Security and economic cooperation used to be the two main pillars in Japan's diplomacy, but Japan dropped the latter. In this respect, a historical change is taking place. -- Stressing "the Japan-US alliance in the global context," the government dispatched Self-Defense Force troops to Afghanistan and Iraq. Tackled under the Japan-US alliance and the Japan-US Security Treaty were issues involving China, Taiwan, and North Korea. The US was somewhat reluctant to deal with issues unrelated to these countries, such as peace construction. After 9/11, however, the US became eager to intervene in regional disputes, and the question emerged of how far Japan should be involved in conflicts in areas other than the Far East under the Japan-US alliance. Prime Minister Koizumi gave TOKYO 00004548 007 OF 010 this very clear reply: "We will do it." If Prime Minister Koizumi said it is better to accept Washington's requests in order to maintain the Japan-US alliance or that he should not make the same mistake former Prime Minister Kaifu did in the 1991 Gulf War, he could convince me. But he believes that close military cooperation between Japan and the US is in Japan's national interest. I cannot understand this. -- Japan and the US agreed on common regional and global strategic goals for US force realignment and decided to carry out wide-ranging cooperation. Even when the current President Bush's father was president, there was the perception that it was impossible to arrange a post-Cold War security system unless the state of the concentrated deployment of US military troops in Germany, South Korea, and Japan is changed. Although the US military will continue stepping back from Asia, Japan promised to offer cooperation in areas that have nothing to do with Asia's safety. This promise may impose a heavy burden on Japan in the future. Asia policy Using ASEAN to try to contain China -- Another element causing these tectonic shifts is an emerging China. China has long put in efforts for its military buildup. China has expanded its naval power and is now ready to even upgrade its nuclear force. Regarding China's role, a remarkable change has been observed in the economic arena. China is now Japan's largest trading partner, and though the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had close economic relations with Japan, they have now turned their attention to China. -- What was Japan doing while China was rapidly strengthening its influence in Asia? I think it was a blank period in Japanese politics. As a result of each country becoming more affluent, Japan's economic cooperation policy came to a standstill. Although Japan had to come up with a new strategy to replace its dependence on economic cooperation, the policy vacuum continued. In addition, the Yasukuni issue has worsened the situation further. -- Growing nationalism in Japan and China is one of the recent features. Nationalism in China has gradually changed. In the 1990s, China used the historical-perception issue as a means to win support for the Chinese Communist Party. It was not something that came from the grassroots. The situation is more serious now. Though China is not democratizing, it is becoming more complex, and that country is entering a volatile period. The people are calling on the government to take a tough stance toward Japan. But views in the Chinese government are split. For the People's Liberation Army and the Communist Party's Ideology Department, it is desirable to turn Japan into an enemy. Economic technocrats, though, would like to see their state turned into not a military power but an economic power, In Japan, on the other hand, those in business circles view the TOKYO 00004548 008 OF 010 Yasukuni issue blocking policy talks between Japan and China as abnormal. For those who want to emphasize the "China threat," it is convenient to have China criticize Yasukuni Shrine. Inward-looking nationalism in both countries has worked to strengthen nationalism in the other. -- North Korea's nuclear and missile issues are also serious. When the North launched missiles in July, Japan took a tough stance in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and succeeded in having a resolution condemning Pyongyang. Some observers in Japan regard it as a victory for Japanese diplomacy. It cannot be regarded as a victory, though, because China did not come on board due to Japanese threats. The US, with no intention of making an enemy of China, worked to woo Beijing. Should China use its veto, the North Korea issue will not be resolved in the UNSC. The US determined that it would be better to draw China into the matter. There are differences in interest between Japan and the US, and Japan taking a hard-line stance was cleverly used by the US, I think. -- Prime Minister Koizumi signed the Pyongyang Declaration when he visited North Korea in 2002 and brought five abductees back to Japan. Later, their families were also taken to Japan. It was right to have brought the abductee families back to Japan. From the standpoint of international relations, though, it looks slightly different. North Korea unprecedentedly acknowledged it had been involved in the abductions. If the North had also made concessions on its nuclear and missile programs, Japan's approach would have been judged successful. -- What do you think is the most important diplomatic challenge for Koizumi's successor? I think it is China. In China, there are groups willing to respond to Japan's proposals. But their position has been weakened due to the Yasukuni issue. I think the best thing to do would be to create a national war memorial, but at the least Japan should separately enshrine Class-A war criminals and then start policy coordination with China. It is an abnormal state for the two major economic powers in Asia to have no policy talks. Such a situation is undesirable for the US and other countries. It is also imperative to deepen cooperation with ASEAN countries. Japan as a creditor nation has direct influence over debtor countries' economies. By taking the initiative in deregulating direct investment and opening its labor market, Japan would be able to bring ASEAN closer once again. ASEAN also fears China. Japan should make use of its relations with ASEAN and try to hold China in check. -- How about North Korea policy? Top priority should be given to denuclearization. In the long run, it is necessary to denuclearize China as well. It is impossible to do it immediately, but in the 1970s, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in nuclear arms control, and the situation should be brought to this level. From the position of an atomic-bombed nation, Japan should insist on the need for denuclearization and take the initiative in dealing with North Korea. -- How about the alliance relationship with the US? TOKYO 00004548 009 OF 010 That is difficult. Japan has promised a wide range of cooperation in areas outside the Far East and played too many of its cards. No country wants to send its troops to Lebanon, for example, but if the US asked Japan to send the Self-Defense Forces, what would Japan do? (7) Japan to propose East Asia EPA initiative with eye on establishment of economic zone comparable to NAFTA, EU: Japan desperate to take initiative; China, South Korea ahead of Japan MAINICHI (Page 9) (Full) August 11, 2006 The government will formally propose an East Asia economic partnership agreement (EPA) initiative at an ASEAN+3 economic ministerial to be held in Malaysia later this month. The proposals is for 16 countries - the 10 ASEAN member nations together with Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand - to sign an EPA to form an economic zone equal to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU). However, China and some other countries will likely oppose the Japan-sponsored plan. Future talks on the issue will likely encounter complications. Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Minister Toshihiro Nikai will attend the meeting. He will propose establishing a private-sector-level study panel to discuss the economic zone initiative. The proposal will likely be accepted. Japan wants to launch talks around 2009. The initiative was included in the global strategy METI mapped out this April. Japan has already signed EPAs with Singapore, Mexico, and Malaysia. METI has calculated that the initiative, if realized, would boost gross domestic product within the region by approximately 25 trillion yen. Behind the proposal is a sense of alarm that Japan is lagging behind China and South Korea in its drive to sign trade agreements. Both China and South Korea have already agreed with ASEAN to conclude FTAs. While Japan still in the process of holding negotiations, China and South Korea are gradually increasing their presence in the ASEAN market, which had long been Japan's stronghold. Japan is becoming impatient with the situation. There is also a move by China to propose a framework of the 10 ASEAN members plus Japan, China, and South Korea. However, convinced that this would involve the strong possibility of China dominating the group, Japan is aiming to check China's influence by offering its own plan that includes India, Australia, and New Zealand. However, there are many obstacles to clear before it is realized. A precondition for starting talks to discuss the proposal is that Japan has a stable economic relationship with China and South Korea. However, EPA talks between Japan and South Korea have been suspended. Regarding China, there are no prospects even for starting talks. It is difficult to start full-fledged talks as long as Japan's diplomatic relations with those countries remain cool. Many Japanese farmers are alarmed about possible liberalization of farm products if Australia takes part in the initiative. Also, ASEAN members are at different levels of development, making it difficult to set liberalization rules. TOKYO 00004548 010 OF 010 Progress of EPA talks by Japan Partner Progress, Feature Already signed Singapore Came into effect in 2002. Japan's first EPA. Mexico Came into effect in 2005. Includes farm produce liberalization. Malaysia Came into effect in 2006. Tariffs on all mined and manufactured products effectively scrapped. Agreement in general principle Philippines Agreement in general principle reached in 2004. Includes acceptance of guest workers. Thailand Agreement in general principle reached in 2005. Under negotiation ASEAN Talks started in 2005. Agreement within two years aimed at. Indonesia Talks started in 2005. Discussions cover resources, such as natural gas. Brunei Talks started in 2006. Stable supply of oil aimed at. Chile Talks started in 2006. Stable supply of copper and other products aimed at. In preparation Gulf Cooperation Council members FTA talks expected to start in 2006. Importance placed on securing resources. India Preparatory meetings are over. Cooperation with a growing market. Vietnam Consideration started in 2006. Challenge is to consolidate investment environment. Talks suspended South Korea Talks have been suspended since 2004. SCHIEFFER