Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO4426
2006-08-07 08:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
NAGANO GOVERNOR RACE GOES TO POSTAL REBEL
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004426
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: NAGANO GOVERNOR RACE GOES TO POSTAL REBEL
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004426
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: NAGANO GOVERNOR RACE GOES TO POSTAL REBEL
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d).
1. (U) Summary. Jin Murai, a former ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) Lower House member, defeated
independent incumbent Yasuo Tanaka on August 6, in a Nagano
Prefecture gubernatorial contest that was seen as more a test
of Tanaka's poor leadership than any sort of wider referendum
on national politics. Murai, a "postal rebel" who resigned
from the LDP and the Diet in 2005 to protest his party's
postal privatization plans, received support from the LDP
prefectural organization, but none from the national
organization. End summary.
2. (U) Jin Murai, 69, a former Lower House Diet member and
one-time State Minister for National Disaster Prevention,
defeated two-term incumbent Yasuo Tanaka, 50, a harsh critic
of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, with 53 percent of the
vote in the Nagano Prefecture gubernatorial election on
August 6. Murai, a "postal rebel" who resigned from the
ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in October 2005 to
protest Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's plan to privatize
Japan's postal system, ran with the backing of the
prefectural-level organizations of the LDP and coalition
partner New Komeito, but no real support from the LDP's
national office. Tanaka, who was elected twice as an
independent, received de facto support from the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) during the hard-fought
campaign. Officially, however, both candidates ran as
independents.
3. (C) Ultimately, the vote appears to have had little to do
with political parties and much more to do with Tanaka's
performance as Governor during his six years in office.
Tanaka's opposition to dam construction and other public
works projects had put him at odds with the prefectural
assembly and other local politicians and rendered him largely
ineffective. In the words of one Embassy LDP contact, Tanaka
was defeated simply because he could not carry through on his
reform agenda. He suggested that Tanaka may have benefited
in earlier elections from the general enthusiasm for reform
generated by PM Koizumi, but was hampered this time by the
lack of results. Voters were also said to dislike Tanaka's
top-down governing style. Press reports cited his failure to
garner support from the local branch of the Japanese Trade
Union Confederation, a key supporter for most DPJ candidates,
as another reason for his defeat. General voter
dissatisfaction was apparent from the turnout, down more than
12% percentage points from Tanaka's landslide victory in 2002.
4. (C) Murai, for his part, offered little in the way of
policy proposals, although he did pledge during the campaign
not to reverse the fiscal reforms undertaken by his
predecessor. Instead, he relied on promises to improve
communication with constituents and politicians and rely more
on a consensus-building approach to governance. According to
a press contact in Nagano, Murai's willingness to reach out
to members of the prefectural assembly and local mayors was
an important element of his success. While this approach has
led to some concerns of backsliding on reforms, our contact
believes there are enough reformers in the prefectural
assembly to preserve the balance toward a more progressive
agenda.
5. (C) Comment. News reports on August 7 quoted LDP
Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe as saying that the LDP
SIPDIS
deliberately refrained from endorsing Murai to give him an
edge with DPJ supporters and other swing voters. We have
heard similar statements from LDP insiders over the past few
weeks, along with concerns that Tanaka's reelection would
have given additional momentum to the DPJ, after recent
victories in elections in Shiga and Chiba prefectures. While
the LDP's strategy appears to have been effective in Nagano,
it does not necessarily bode well for the LDP's ability to
win over DPJ supporters and swing voters in next year's Upper
House elections. Nevertheless, an LDP contact in the Lower
House told the Embassy today that the LDP is happy that
Tanaka's defeat removes one of Koizumi's most vocal critics.
The contact reiterated that local politics are distinct from
national level politics and he did not see this election in
Nagano as having any effect on next year's Upper House
elections.
TOKYO 00004426 002 OF 002
SCHIEFFER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: NAGANO GOVERNOR RACE GOES TO POSTAL REBEL
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d).
1. (U) Summary. Jin Murai, a former ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) Lower House member, defeated
independent incumbent Yasuo Tanaka on August 6, in a Nagano
Prefecture gubernatorial contest that was seen as more a test
of Tanaka's poor leadership than any sort of wider referendum
on national politics. Murai, a "postal rebel" who resigned
from the LDP and the Diet in 2005 to protest his party's
postal privatization plans, received support from the LDP
prefectural organization, but none from the national
organization. End summary.
2. (U) Jin Murai, 69, a former Lower House Diet member and
one-time State Minister for National Disaster Prevention,
defeated two-term incumbent Yasuo Tanaka, 50, a harsh critic
of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, with 53 percent of the
vote in the Nagano Prefecture gubernatorial election on
August 6. Murai, a "postal rebel" who resigned from the
ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in October 2005 to
protest Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's plan to privatize
Japan's postal system, ran with the backing of the
prefectural-level organizations of the LDP and coalition
partner New Komeito, but no real support from the LDP's
national office. Tanaka, who was elected twice as an
independent, received de facto support from the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) during the hard-fought
campaign. Officially, however, both candidates ran as
independents.
3. (C) Ultimately, the vote appears to have had little to do
with political parties and much more to do with Tanaka's
performance as Governor during his six years in office.
Tanaka's opposition to dam construction and other public
works projects had put him at odds with the prefectural
assembly and other local politicians and rendered him largely
ineffective. In the words of one Embassy LDP contact, Tanaka
was defeated simply because he could not carry through on his
reform agenda. He suggested that Tanaka may have benefited
in earlier elections from the general enthusiasm for reform
generated by PM Koizumi, but was hampered this time by the
lack of results. Voters were also said to dislike Tanaka's
top-down governing style. Press reports cited his failure to
garner support from the local branch of the Japanese Trade
Union Confederation, a key supporter for most DPJ candidates,
as another reason for his defeat. General voter
dissatisfaction was apparent from the turnout, down more than
12% percentage points from Tanaka's landslide victory in 2002.
4. (C) Murai, for his part, offered little in the way of
policy proposals, although he did pledge during the campaign
not to reverse the fiscal reforms undertaken by his
predecessor. Instead, he relied on promises to improve
communication with constituents and politicians and rely more
on a consensus-building approach to governance. According to
a press contact in Nagano, Murai's willingness to reach out
to members of the prefectural assembly and local mayors was
an important element of his success. While this approach has
led to some concerns of backsliding on reforms, our contact
believes there are enough reformers in the prefectural
assembly to preserve the balance toward a more progressive
agenda.
5. (C) Comment. News reports on August 7 quoted LDP
Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe as saying that the LDP
SIPDIS
deliberately refrained from endorsing Murai to give him an
edge with DPJ supporters and other swing voters. We have
heard similar statements from LDP insiders over the past few
weeks, along with concerns that Tanaka's reelection would
have given additional momentum to the DPJ, after recent
victories in elections in Shiga and Chiba prefectures. While
the LDP's strategy appears to have been effective in Nagano,
it does not necessarily bode well for the LDP's ability to
win over DPJ supporters and swing voters in next year's Upper
House elections. Nevertheless, an LDP contact in the Lower
House told the Embassy today that the LDP is happy that
Tanaka's defeat removes one of Koizumi's most vocal critics.
The contact reiterated that local politics are distinct from
national level politics and he did not see this election in
Nagano as having any effect on next year's Upper House
elections.
TOKYO 00004426 002 OF 002
SCHIEFFER