LDP HOPEFULS TAKE THE STAGE AT TOKYO CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004301 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: LDP HOPEFULS TAKE THE STAGE AT TOKYO CONVENTION REF: TOKYO 4231 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) drew huge crowds of supporters to its July 28 Tokyo bloc convention, the first in a series of 11 policy discussions to be held across Japan in the run up to September leadership elections. The low-key debate between Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe, Finance Minister Sadokazu Tanigaki, and SIPDIS Foreign Minister Taro Aso did nothing to change the prevailing view that the race is Abe's to lose. What the convention lacked in substance, however, it made up for in dramatic flourishes, as the LDP did its best to put on a good show for members of the local chapter. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Tokyo bloc of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hosted on July 28 the first of 11 regional bloc conventions, drawing an overflow crowd of LDP supporters to what was widely billed as a policy debate between candidates for the top LDP leadership post. The event featured Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe, Finance Minister Sadokazu Tanigaki, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso answering a series of questions posed by LDP Tokyo chapter President Nobutera Ishihara. Of the three, only Tanigaki has formally announced his candidacy for the September 20 election. Aso participated via taped remarks from Kuala Lumpur, where he was attending the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy and Financial Services Kaoru Yosano joined ABE and Tanigaki on stage as a representative of Tokyo chapter LDP members. ¶3. (SBU) The regional bloc conventions are an innovation introduced by party Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe as a means for the LDP to reach out to the various proportional representation blocs across the country. Takebe started the evening with a call for serious policy debates in the run up to next summer's Upper House elections as a means of earning the trust of LDP members and the public. As he concluded his remarks, the lights dimmed, lightning bolts flashed across a large video monitor, and thunder rumbled through the hall. Just when the incidental music reached an ear-splitting crescendo, the back wall of the stage rotated out to reveal Abe, Tanigaki, and Yosano seated side-by-side at small tables. Ishihara, serving as moderator, proceeded to ask Abe, Tanigaki, Aso, and Yosano to describe their views on the future of Japan, the role of the younger generation, and foreign policy. The panelists answered in very general terms, avoiding direct debate. Their answers provided few surprises, as Abe, Tanigaki, and Aso attempted to highlight their relative strengths in domestic, fiscal, and foreign policy, respectively. ¶4. (SBU) Abe, the clear front-runner in the LDP presidential race, spoke of the need for "innovation" in the use of technology and "openness" with regard to trade in order for Japan to overcome the effects of a declining birthrate and an aging population. He also called for serious discussion of constitutional reform. Tanigaki, as expected, used his time to emphasize the need for Japan to adopt more austere fiscal measures, including an increase in the consumption tax, to avoid burdening future generations with debt. Aso in his taped answers focused on the need for Japan to take a more active role in international affairs, citing Japan's diplomacy at the United Nations in response to North Korea's July 5 missile tests as a good example. He stressed the importance of using foreign relations to nurture a nation in which people can enjoy affluence and peace. All three panelists spoke to the central role of family, community, education, and a good work ethic in overcoming societal problems and emphasized the need for Japanese people to believe in themselves and the greatness of their nation. All three acknowledged the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance. ¶5. (C) Comment. This is the first time the LDP has organized regional bloc conventions in the run up to an election and no one really knew what to expect. In the end, however, speculation over the identities of the panelists provided the only real excitement of the evening. The crowd, which was heavily skewed toward an older demographic, clapped TOKYO 00004301 002 OF 002 and cheered in all the right places, but did not seem particularly caught up in the proceedings. The lack of enthusiasm may have been due in part to the format, which did not encourage any sort of debate among the panelists, all current cabinet members. In fact, the only remotely contentious exchange occurred when Tanigaki offered veiled criticism of the current administration for Japan's troubled relations with China and Korea. ABE quickly countered by placing the blame squarely on Japan's neighbors for allowing the Yasukuni issue to strain relations. ¶6. (C) Comment (cont.). While Abe's dominance in the race reduces these regional bloc conventions to nothing more than political theater, the performances of the prospective candidates at these events may well determine who is still in the race come September 20. Of the three possible challengers to ABE sharing the stage, Tanigaki came across as the most forceful campaigner, although Aso may have been hampered by having to tape his answers in advance and Yosano appeared distinctly uncomfortable. Abe, meanwhile, showed his mettle as a steady, if not electrifying, campaigner, looking very much like the man to beat. SCHIEFFER