ABE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 004231 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: ABE IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary. A week after Yasuo Fukuda's announcement that he will not run in the September Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential race, it now appears likely that current Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO ABE has locked up the race and will consequently become Japan's next Prime Minister. Most observers believe ABE is a shoo-in for the post but many hope there will still be at least the appearance of a "real" race in order to sustain the public's interest. None of the current crop of contenders appears capable of mounting a serious challenge, though anti-Abe forces are still trying to recruit a candidate. End Summary. Fukuda Exits, ABE Takes Center Stage -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda's announcement on July 21 that he will not run in the September Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election has cleared the way for current Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi as LDP President and prime minister. Despite Abe's commanding lead in the polls, Fukuda had been widely seen as the most serious challenger. His withdrawal leaves Fukuda supporters and anti-Abe forces scrambling to find a replacement; they have yet to coalesce around another candidate. For his part, ABE announced July 26 that he would leave the Mori faction permanently in advance of the election. This cosmetic change would allow him to claim broader support within the party and weaken the impression that factional politics allowed him to become prime minister. Kabuki Anyone? -------------- ¶3. (C) Numerous sources lament the fact that the absence of Fukuda will rob the LDP of a "real" race and the public focus it would bring. Still, no one believes that there is a candidate on the horizon who could deprive ABE of the prime ministership. As a consequence, many are talking about the need to recruit a candidate who would lose in an "honorable" and "gentlemanly" way. ¶4. (C) Media contacts have assured us that the anti-Abe forces within the LDP have not faded away, either. Many party veterans continue to believe that Abe, at 51, is too young to assume the mantle of power. More importantly, many of these older party leaders feel ABE has not paid his dues and, with bruised egos, feel passed over. Nonetheless, when asked by the Embassy about a possible replacement candidate for Fukuda, these anti-Abe contacts were unanimous in their assessment that none of the current crop of contenders could hope to mount a serious challenge to ABE in the September 20 election. Neither Foreign Minister Taro Aso nor Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, early contenders for the race, has performed well in the polls or shown the ability to galvanize anti-Abe sentiment. If anything, their positions in the current administration could make it difficult for them to differentiate themselves and challenge ABE on policy grounds. A group that includes Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy and Financial Services Kaoru Yosano, Defense Agency Chief Fukushiro Nukaga, former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki, Senior Vice Minister for Justice Taro Kono, and Lower House LDP member Kunio Hatoyama may still provide one or more candidates against ABE but none is thought to be a serious challenger in the end. While candidates are not generally expected to announce their intentions formally until late August, we can expect many closed-door meetings and active maneuverings as potential dark-horse candidates test the waters. Wanted: A Foil -------------- ¶5. (C) We do not see a credible challenger to ABE emerging but, as suggested by our contacts, a "foil" could play a useful role for domestic consumption. A lively, but non-destructive, campaign would give ABE an opportunity to showcase his leadership and gain support for his policies, paving the way to contest the DPJ in the Upper House TOKYO 00004231 002 OF 002 elections next year. It would also help ABE overcome any resentment that he was handpicked by Koizumi for the job. Other candidates could run as well because unlike in the United States, politicians in Japan can run, lose and still be considered serious contenders for future races. Koizumi, himself, ran for the LDP presidency twice with poor results before winning the crown in 2001. Embassy interlocutors hold that candidates in this election, too, may be setting themselves up to "show their stuff" and to signal they intend to take a more serious stab at the post in the next election. SCHIEFFER