EMPEROR'S WORDS SPARK DEBATE ON YASUKUNI, HISTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 004229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: EMPEROR'S WORDS SPARK DEBATE ON YASUKUNI, HISTORY

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reason: 1.4 (B) (D)


1. (C) Summary: Revelation of a memo quoting the late
Emperor Hirohito as saying his refusal to go to Yasukuni
Shrine was directly related to the enshrinement there of
Class-A war criminals is already reshaping Japan's debate on
Yasukuni. The release of the memo has refocused the debate
as a domestic issue, rather than a diplomatic one. It also
provides perfect political cover for Prime Minister Koizumi's
successors to eschew attendance at Yasukuni. If Chief
Cabinet Secretary Abe, odds-on favorite to be Japan's next
Prime Minister, seizes this opportunity, and we think he
might, it would remove the single biggest irritant in Japan's
relations with China and South Korea. In a broader sense,
confirmation of Imperial displeasure with Yasukuni has
already had a significant impact within Japan and could even
help blunt the trend of historical revisionism. End
summary.


2. (U) On July 20, the Nihon Keizai newspaper (Japan's Wall
Street Journal) published a memo in which the late Emperor
Hirohito, now posthumously referred to as the Emperor Showa,
is quoted as saying that enshrinement of Class-A war
criminals at Yasukuni Shrine in 1978 was the reason for his
subsequent refusal to pay homage at the shrine, a position
maintained by his son, the current Emperor. "That is why
I've since stopped visiting (the shrine). That is how I feel
in my heart," the Emperor is quoted as saying. The memo,
dated April 28,1988, was written by Tomohiko Tomita, a former
Imperial Household Agency grand steward and close confidante
of the emperor. The memo's authenticity and Emperor
Hirohito's words are considered beyond question by virtually
everyone in Japan.


3. (SBU) An immediate effect of Tomita's memo has been to
revive debate about the propriety of visits to Yasukuni,
particularly by a prime minister in his official capacity.
Prime Minister Koizumi has made clear that the Tomita memo
has not changed his views on paying respects at the shrine,
which he is widely expected to do for the last time as prime
minister on August 15. "To visit or not is an individual's
choice. It is a matter of the heart," Koizumi told the
press. Other politicians, however, aren't so sure, with many
already expressing opposition to visiting the shrine or
re-examining their positions. One thing is certain: the
memo's confirmation that the late Emperor opposed
enshrinement of Class-A war criminals at Yasukuni has had an
effect on Japanese public opinion. Recent polls show that
60% of Japanese now oppose visits to Yasukuni by Koizumi's
successors, while only 20% would support such visits. This
contrasts sharply with results of a January poll in which
only 40% opposed the visits and 28% supported them. Another
poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun reveals that fully 63% of
respondents now want the Class-A war criminals to be
separated from the other war dead at Yasukuni.


4. (C) As the Asahi Shimbun pointed out in a recent
editorial, the Tomita memo has had the beneficial effect of
making Yasukuni and the related issue of an appropriate place
for the war dead a domestic issue. "It is a question to
which we Japanese must find an answer, before being told to
do so by China or South Korea," according to the Asahi. In
this connection, confirmation of Emperor Hirohito's position
provides a golden opportunity for Koizumi's successors to
eschew visiting the shrine in the official capacity of prime
minister. The Emperor's words provide, in effect, perfect
political cover for countering attacks from the right that
might come with non-attendance. Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe
has been careful to avoid taking a position on this issue in
the run-up to the LDP presidential election. However,
informed sources tell us Abe has already made up his mind not
to pay homage at Yasukuni on August 15th, and he may never
visit if he indeed becomes Prime Minister. If Abe adopts
that position, and we believe there is a good chance he will,
it would remove the single biggest irritant in Japan's
relations with China and the Republic of Korea.


5. (C) For most Japanese, the question of where Emperor
Hirohito stood on Yasukuni had been assumed for many years;
after all, he paid homage at the shrine in the immediate
post-war years, but then ceased going after Class-A war
criminals were enshrined in 1978. Still, the Tomita memo
containing the Emperor's own words has confirmed those rumors
and put proponents on the defensive. In effect, it is the
smoking gun that ends any debate about the Emperor's true
feelings about Yasukuni and the responsibility of the Class-A
war criminals enshrined there.


6. (C) Comment: We believe the Tomita memo quoting the
late Emperor's words could spark a major debate on Japan's
role in the war. For years, there has been growing
revisionism about the war years and Japan's responsibility
for the atrocities that occurred during it. One need go no
further than the museum at Yasukuni Shrine to see a totally
skewed view of 20th century history, in which Japan's actions
are excused as those of a victim. The Tomita memo and
perhaps other important revelations from documents he
compiled, but which have yet to be published, could help
blunt this trend toward historical revisionism. Already, one
can sense that Emperor Hirohito's feeling of betrayal by
enshrinement of the Class-A war criminals at Yasukuni has had
a dramatic effect on Japanese public opinion, and we suspect
this is only the beginning.
SCHIEFFER