MEDIA REACTION Q NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCHES

UNCLAS TOKYO 003860

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR I/RF, PA/PR/FPC/W, IIP/G/EA, EAP/PD, R/MR,
EAP/J, EAP/P, PM;
USTR FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
TREASURY FOR OASIA/IMI;
SECDEF FOR OASD/PA;
CP BUTLER OKINAWA FOR AREA FIELD OFFICE;
PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO JA
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION Q NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCHES
- TOKYO


LEAD STORIES: Most Tuesday morning papers front-paged a
decision by the USG and GOJ to postpone the UNSC vote on
a resolution against North Korea's missile launches for a
few days in light of China's diplomatic effort to push
Pyongyang back to the six-party talks.


1. "Diplomacy Alone Cannot Prevent North Korean Missile
Launches" Guest columnist Takushoku University Prof.
Satoshi Morimoto commented in the conservative Sankei
(7/11): "North Korea's missile launches last week pose a
serious challenge and threat to the security of the
international community, including Japan. Nevertheless,
the Japanese people lack an appropriate sense of crisis,
and this is indeed a more serious problem. North Korea
has devoted the past decade-plus to developing and
deploying nuclear weapons and missiles. If the situation
is allowed to continue, these two threats will fuse, and
Japan will find itself vulnerable to nuclear attack or
nuclear blackmail. Japan's efforts in the national
security arena have been slow. Although the US Navy
currently has an Aegis cruiser equipped with SM-3
missiles at Yokosuka this summer, the deployment of US
missiles capable of intercepting Taepodong-2 long-range
missiles will not take place for some time. It will not
be until the end of the year that the US ARMY will deploy
PAC-3 missiles at Kadena AB, with the GSDF set to deploy
PAC-3 missiles starting in 2007 and the MSDF expected to
put SM-3 missiles on Aegis ships from 2008.... Although
Japan has launched two spy satellites, it is still
dependent on the US for analysis of the details of North
Korean preparations for missile launches.... It is,
therefore, imperative that Japan strengthen its
intelligence-gathering activities....


2. "We cannot allow North Korea to conclude that other
nations will yield to its saber-rattling policy. We need
to deal resolutely with Pyongyang's intimidation. Since
North Korea launched the missiles in violation of the
Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration, Tokyo should inform
Pyongyang that the agreement is now void.... Assuming
that North Korea launched the missiles in the awareness
that it would find itself on the receiving end of
considerable pressure from the international community,
that means there were forces in the country determined to
push forward in doing so. The Taepodong-2 missile that
was setn up reportedly failed. Another unsuccessful
launch of a Taepodong-2 would damage the prestige of the
Kim Jong Il regime, which could lead to a difficult
situation. Attention is now shifting to what the response
of the international community will be at the UN Security
Council and the coming G-8 summit in Russia. The question
is whether China and Russia share the world's concern
over the missile launches and will vote for the
resolution at the UNSC sponsored by Japan and the US. It
is imperative that Japan cooperate closely with
Washington and deal with any confusion in a cool-headed
manner. Although it would be preferable for the North
Korean nuclear and missile programs to be abolished
through diplomacy, the idea that every security issue can
be resolved through talk is fantasy."

SCHIEFFER