DPRK MISSILES SHOOT DOWN MINDAN-CHOSEN SOREN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003826

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KS KN JA
SUBJECT: DPRK MISSILES SHOOT DOWN MINDAN-CHOSEN SOREN
RECONCILIATION

REF: TOKYO 003782

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (
D).


1. (SBU) Summary: A recent reconciliation accord between
pro-Seoul and pro-Pyongyang organizations of Korean residents
in Japan has become an early casualty of the DPRK missile
launches. The agreement, aimed at ending 50 years of
confrontation between the rival groups, had been shaky from
the start and went up in smoke July 6, a day after the
missile salvo. Although both groups are bracing for possible
demonstrations/retribution against Korean institutions and
individuals, Mindan tells us the situation so far is calmer
than what followed in the wake of the August 1998 Taepodong
shot over Japan. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On May 17, an historic agreement was unveiled
between the pro-Seoul Korean Residents Union in Japan
(Mindan) and the pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean
Residents in Japan (Chosen Soren, or Chongryun in Korean).
The accord was designed to end, in the name of "ethnic
unity," decades of confrontation and rivalry between the two
groups and begin a new era of cooperation. The agreement was
shaky from the start, particularly among Mindan members,
whose distrust of Chosen Soren and the DPRK remains intense.
Less than a month after the accord was announced, Mindan
backed out of a joint unification ceremony on June 15 that
was to commemorate the 2000 South-North summit, due to
opposition by regional Mindan chapters. The July 5 DPRK
missile shots proved fatal to the already-weakened accord.


3. (C) On July 6, Embassy Tokyo Political Officer talked
with Ha Chung Nam, International Bureau Director at the
Mindan Head Office in Tokyo. Ha confirmed that the DPRK
action had driven the final nail in the coffin and that
Mindan leader Ha Byong Ok would be visiting Chosen Soren
headquarters later in the day to deliver a formal statement
abrogating the agreement. Director Ha later called us to
report that no one in Chosen Soren was prepared to receive
the statement; instead, Mindan had been directed to "mail it"
to the organization. Despite the end of the formal accord,
Ha said, Mindan would continue to try some cooperative
endeavors at the local level, aimed at further weakening
Korean residents' allegiance to Chosen Soren.


4. (C) Asked about general developments in the Korean
community in Japan, Ha described all indicators as headed up
for Mindan and down for Chosen Soren. His estimate of
affiliation among the roughly 600,000 Korean residents in
Japan was 90% Mindan and 10% Chosen Soren. (Comment: While
trend lines in membership of the two organizations have been
headed in opposite directions for many years, Ha's estimate
is the largest gap we've heard so far.) Ha also described
dramatically declining enrollment at Chosen Soren-affiliated
schools. While the number of such schools had declined in
recent years from approximately 100 nationwide to 60-70
currently, Ha said the number of students in the schools was
even more significantly down. Ha described a case in which
the City of Yokohama had put 300 million yen of public money
into refurbishing one such school, only to find out that
there were only six students in attendance. The expenditure
subsequently became an issue at the city council.


5. (C) Turning to the immediate post-missile shot
situation, Ha said Mindan and Korean residents in general
were concerned about possible demonstrations against Korean
institutions and acts of retaliation against individuals. So
far, however, Mindan had seen very few cases, Ha noted. He
compared the situation favorably with that which developed in
the wake of the Taepodong shot that flew over Japan in August
1998, which triggered a number of unfortunate incidents.
(Note: According to AmConGen Osaka, Kansai Public Security
Investigation Bureau (KPSIB) officials confirm that the
Chosen Soren headquarters in Osaka, location of the largest
concentration of Korean residents in Japan, has requested
additional police protection at Osaka's Korean schools, due
to the threat of Japanese right wing attacks on students and
facilities.)


6. (C) Finally, Political Officer recalled being in the
office of a Diet member from Osaka at the time of the 1998
Taepodong launch. In the Political Officer's presence, the

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Diet member called Osaka headquarters of the Chosen Soren to
demand an official comment on the missile shot. At that
time, Chosen Soren had no talking points in hand and nothing
to say. Mindan Director Ha confirmed that the current
situation was the same: Chosen Soren had been caught
flat-footed again.
SCHIEFFER