Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO3454
2006-06-21 08:35:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/21/06

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 003454 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/21/06


INDEX:

(1) Tokyo, Washington agree on US beef import resumption: Japan to
conduct prior inspections

(2) Withdrawal of SDF from Iraq: Ruling parties highlight
achievements through dispatch, while opposition camp calls
withdrawal "natural"

(3) Key points in Koizumi's remarks in press conference on SDF
withdrawal from Iraq

(4) Evaluation of SDF mission in Iraq

(5) North Korea preparing Taepodong-2 missile launch, may be using
missile card as bargaining chip in reaction to protracted US
sanctions

(6) Patriot deployment to Kadena base likely this year against North
Korea's Taepodong missiles

(7) Analysis of Patriot missile deployment to Kadena: Reversal of
move to lessen Okinawa's security burden; MD rises to a new stage

(8) Prediction of personnel changes in Kasumigaseki: Focus on who
will be picked as directors general of bureau and department to be
established

ARTICLES:

(1) Tokyo, Washington agree on US beef import resumption: Japan to
conduct prior inspections

YOMIURI (Page
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 003454 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/21/06 INDEX: (1) Tokyo, Washington agree on US beef import resumption: Japan to conduct prior inspections (2) Withdrawal of SDF from Iraq: Ruling parties highlight achievements through dispatch, while opposition camp calls withdrawal "natural" (3) Key points in Koizumi's remarks in press conference on SDF withdrawal from Iraq (4) Evaluation of SDF mission in Iraq (5) North Korea preparing Taepodong-2 missile launch, may be using missile card as bargaining chip in reaction to protracted US sanctions (6) Patriot deployment to Kadena base likely this year against North Korea's Taepodong missiles (7) Analysis of Patriot missile deployment to Kadena: Reversal of move to lessen Okinawa's security burden; MD rises to a new stage (8) Prediction of personnel changes in Kasumigaseki: Focus on who will be picked as directors general of bureau and department to be established ARTICLES: (1) Tokyo, Washington agree on US beef import resumption: Japan to conduct prior inspections YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full) Evening, June 21, 2006 Japan imposed the second ban on US beef imports, following the discovery of vertebral columns, a material banned in Japan as a BSE disease risk. The governments of Japan and the US have resumed bureau director-level telephone talks this morning at the Foreign Ministry to discuss this issue and ultimately agreed to resume beef imports. Following the development, inspectors of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) will start inspecting US meatpacking plants at 35 locations as early as June. If they find no problems, the import ban will be lifted possibly in late July. US beef imports, which have been suspended for the second time since Jan. 20, will thus be resumed after a hiatus of about six months. The governments of Japan and the US also held a teleconference earlier that las
ted from the evening of the 20th until shortly after 12:00 a.m. on the 21st. Cliffhanger talks continued today. The Japanese delegation during the second round of the talks this morning reaffirmed import conditions, including the number of inspectors to be dispatched to US meat processing plants and the scope of inspections they will carry out. The two countries have also undertaken coordination on responses they will take in the event the US exported beef products that violate the export conditions that the two countries agreed on, such as the inclusion TOKYO 00003454 002 OF 010 of vertebral columns. As a condition for Japan to resume imports, the US agreed to draft a working manual to be observed by meatpackers and other employees to make them fully familiar with export conditions for Japan-bound products. It has also been decided that Japanese inspectors would conduct inspections of US meat-processing plants and witness surprise inspections being performed by the US Department of Agriculture. As a domestic measure, it has also been decided that Japan strengthens its water's edge inspection system at airports. Japan suspended US beef imports, following the finding of a Canadian-born BSE-infected cow in the US in December 2003. Though it allowed the resumption of imports in Dec. 2005, Japan again imposed a ban due to the discovery of vertebral columns, a material whose shipment is in a violation of the Japan-US agreement, in a US beef shipment. (2) Withdrawal of SDF from Iraq: Ruling parties highlight achievements through dispatch, while opposition camp calls withdrawal "natural" YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) June 21, 2006 The government issued an order for the Ground Self-Defense Force's (GSDF) unit stationed in Samawah in southern Iraq to withdraw. Many senior members in the ruling camp have praised their achievements, one officer saying: "SDF troops' reconstruction mission has been of great help to the Iraqi people, resulting in showing Japan's willingness to contribute to the international community." Meanwhile, the opposition camp calls the withdrawal only "natural." It also raps the government's decision to expand the Air Self-Defense Force's (ASDF) services. Speaking before reporters at party headquarters yesterday, Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Takebe heaped the highest praise on GSDF troops' activities: "They helped the Iraqis reconstruct and rebuild their nation, without having any casualties and even firing a single bullet. They have won high praise and have received words of gratitude. They can be proud of themselves." Yasuo Fukuda, who was serving as chief cabinet secretary when Japan dispatched the first reconstruction support group to Iraq, also told reporters: "No one was injured, and it was splendid. Some suggested that troops should be pulled out earlier, but (the timing) was good. Many countries now say that their troops should emulate the civil activities of GSDF troops." After meeting with Prime Minister Koizumi, New Komeito President Kanzaki stated: "Their humanitarian and reconstruction assistance has produced good results and helped the Iraqis become independent in the reconstruction and security areas. The decision on the withdrawal is proper. ... In part because the request came from United Nations Secretary General Annan, it is important for the ASDF to transport SIPDIS TOKYO 00003454 003 OF 010 food and medical goods." Former LDP Secretary General Koichi Kato, who opposed the dispatch plan, commented: "The Iraq war waged by President Bush has come under heavy fire. No mass-destruction weapons were ever found, and in a move to promote democratization, the situation (in Iraq) fell into a state of near civil war. Whether the dispatch was proper should be discussed later." Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) Secretary General Hatoyama, who has taken a negative stance toward the dispatch plan, said: "We appreciate SDF personnel's services despite the harsh conditions," but he made the following criticism in his statement: (1) Since services by the ASDF will be expanded, a decision on a complete withdrawal has been put off; (2) although the SDF's mission will be shifted to rear support, the government has yet to be fully accountable; and (3) the government's decision to pull troops out of Samawah, timing it with the British military's withdrawal, shows the lack of autonomy. Japanese Communist Party Chairman Shii emphatically said in a press conference: "Withdrawing troops is quite natural. The continuation and expansion of ASDF activities will lead to direct support for (the US military's) cleanup operations, so we ask the government to immediately decide to withdraw the ASDF troops, as well." Social Democratic Party President Fukushima told reporters: "I agree with the withdrawal, though it seems somewhat late. It was good that nobody was injured and that weapons were not used." But she added: "If ASDF troops' activities are expanded, they may be involved in operations in combat areas." (3) Key points in Koizumi's remarks in press conference on SDF withdrawal from Iraq YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) June 21, 2006 After consulting with the United States, British, Australia, and other member countries of the coalition forces, the government has judged that Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) troops fulfilled a certain level of role in their mission to help reconstruction efforts and has decided to pull them out of Iraq. Japan would like to consider what it can do in rebuilding Iraq and to continue to provide as much aid as possible while cooperating with other countries and the United Nations (UN). I do not mean that I want to or must withdraw troops while I am in office as prime minister. But I am happy to be able to announce the withdrawal now, based on a judgment from a comprehensive viewpoint. I am not thinking about a tour of Iraq as of now, because my visit will cause other countries extra duties and consideration in terms of security. I think various steps taken against Iraq based on UN resolutions TOKYO 00003454 004 OF 010 were proper. Successfully overcoming the perception gap that was evident when the war started, the international community now is in accord on the need for each nation to offer their appropriate assistance. While recognizing the importance of the Japan-US alliance, Japan will make efforts to deepen international coordination. Regarding a permanent law (pertaining to SDF dispatch overseas),we must thoroughly discuss it, without trying to hurriedly enact it, for instance, in the next Diet session. (4) Evaluation of SDF mission in Iraq ASAHI (Page 37) (Slightly abridged) June 21, 2006 Prime Minister Koizumi yesterday announced the government's decision to pull out a Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) unit based in Iraq. He decided on the dispatch amid active debates over its pros and cons and has now decided to draw the curtain on it while he is still in office. Moves to choosing a successor to Koizumi are picking up speed. The Asahi Shimbun asked 10 readers who cast their ballots in favor of the Koizumi-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in last year's Lower House election to take part in a survey on how the public has viewed the dispatch over the past two and a half years. SDF personnel have done a good job; Opposed to idea of their carrying weapons Masahiko (25) of Osaka took part in an NGO's Peace Boat, when he was a freshman in college. On a three-month mission, he visited various countries in the world. When he returned home, he found that his views had dramatically changed. He now thinks, "War will never disappear." When he visited Eritrea, a country continuously engaged in conflict, children with glittering eyes surrounded him. He thought that they were welcoming him, but they attacked him and snatched his luggage away. At another time, he found himself to be at gunpoint, and he felt weak at the knees. There was no room for human contacts in such situations. He attended a peace lecture held on the ship, but now what he learned there sounds meaningless. He returned home in late 2002. Shortly after that, Japan was in a commotion over the dispatch of SDF troops to Iraq. He hates the idea of such thinking as "it is all right as long as my country is affluent and in peace." He thinks that SDF personnel did their best even though it was half-baked. However, he does not praise them. He thinks, "If I were to go to Iraq, I would like to go as a member of a military troop that can properly perform a security-keeping operation." In view of Asia diplomacy, he has pinned his hopes on Fukuda as the successor to the current prime minister. The next comments come from Masaru (43) of Hokkaido. In 2003, the year before SDF troops were dispatched to Iraq, Masaru's friend, who was engaged in PTA activities at an elementary school, told him that children were not energetic. There were many pupils whose fathers are SDF members at that school. Wives whose husbands were slated for Iraq were anxious, wondering how they should explain the situation to their children. Masaru has a friend who is an SDF member. However, they deliberately avoid bringing up the topic of the dispatch of SDF troops to Iraq. Even when there was a growing mood in the area to praise SDF troops dispatched to Iraq, SDF members and their families became even more TOKYO 00003454 005 OF 010 reticent. Masaru thought the atmosphere during the war was perhaps similar to this. Masaru thinks that it was a mistake for Japan to have dispatched SDF personnel to Iraq. Weapons of mass destruction, the reason for the US attack on Iraq, have never been found, and yet, the government gave no explanation about that. "I am proud that we have completed our mission," says Joint Staff Council chairman On June 20, when an order on the pullout of the GSDF unit based in Iraq was issued yesterday, Hajime Massaki, chairman of the Joint Staff Council, told a news conference: "The GSDF has waged a united drive to perform its duties over the past two and a half years. I am proud that we have completed our mission and can now withdraw." To successor to Prime Minister Koizumi; Eyes of 10 watchers Question: What is your interest in the dispatch of SDF troops to Iraq after two years and a half? Answer Pollee (age)Place of residence Reason Favorite LDP presidential candidate down Masahiko, fourth year university student (25) Osaka Why now? The medical services system and infrastructure in Iraq cannot have been fully consolidated. I wonder, have SDF troops been dispatched at the request of somebody and will they now return home at the request of that same person? Fukuda (in previous survey) down Aso (replied in this survey) down Keiko, systems engineer (27)Kanagawa What I felt when I heard the news of the government decision to pull out the GSDF unit from Iraq was surprise that they were still in that country. Abe down Abe down Kazuo, employee of manufacturing co. (34)Tokyo I was initially against the dispatch, but now I think SDF personnel have contributed as much as they can within the restriction under Article 9 of the Constitution. Abe down Abe down Mie, housewife (35)Fukuoka It is strange to make a fuss only over their dispatch and pullout. I want to see the schools SDF personnel built, children's' smiles and the reconstruction process. Abe down Abe down Masaru, first-class registered architect (43) The greatest objective of SDF troops operating in Iraq is to comply with the request from the US. Assistance for Iraqi reconstruction is the reason provided by the government. Abe down Abe up Naoko, housewife (47) The dispatch might have been unavoidable in view of the presence of North Korea and other factors Fukuda down Do not know down TOKYO 00003454 006 OF 010 Asako, rice farmer (50)Fukushima I have an acquaintance whose husband has been dispatched, but she keeps mum about it. Aso down Aso down Tadashi, employee of telecommunications co. (56)Tokyo Japan provided only money during the Gulf War, and its contribution was not appreciated. The prime minister should tell the world about the dispatch of SDF troops this time. Fukuda down Fukuda - Yukio, former department manager of travel co. (68)Aichi They have well fulfilled their duties in the savage heat. I want to say, "Thank you," to a transport plane, when it flies over my house on its way to Komaki Base. Abe down Abe - Michiyo, unemployed (72)Kyoto It is time for GSDF troops to pull out of Iraq. If they had stayed longer, it could have been said that they had invaded that country. Aso down Aso (5) North Korea preparing Taepodong-2 missile launch, may be using missile card as bargaining chip in reaction to protracted US sanctions YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) June 20, 2006 Tensions are running high in the international community, mainly in Japan and the United States, as North Korea is preparing to launch a ballistic Taepodong-2 missile. Observers see Pyongyang's moves as a strategy of brinksmanship intended to draw the US into bilateral negotiations, but the US has no intention to hold negotiations with it. Why did Pyongyang decide to take provocative action? In the six-party talks on its nuclear development program in September 2005, North Korea signed a joint statement noting that it would disband its nuclear program in exchange for economic aid from and normalization of relations with Japan and the US. Washington, however, invoked financial sanctions against a Macao-based bank linked to Pyongyang's overseas holdings, citing North Korea's illegal activities, such as counterfeiting American 100 dollar bills. Since then, the nation's shortage of foreign currency reportedly has become serious. In reaction, North Korea, while boycotting the six-party talks, thrust a proposal at the US that it remove its sanctions in exchange for the North's return to the talks. But the US has declined this proposal. On June 1, Pyongyang called for Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the chief US envoy to the six-party talks, to visit the communist nation, but Washington turned the request down. It is fully conceivable that Pyongyang has decided to toughen its stance by resorting to the missile card, in addition to the nuclear card, dissatisfied that its compromise proposal was "repaid with malice." That nation must also have judged that it has used up all of its other resources. North Korea likely has in mind past successful cases of the use of brinksmanship. On the occasion of the first nuclear crisis during 1993 -1994, the US agreed to provide the North with two light-water reactors, together with Japan and South Korea. When the Taepodong-1 missile was fired in 1998, the US eased its economic sanctions by TOKYO 00003454 007 OF 010 providing aid in return for its freeze on future missile launches. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong Young when he visited Pyongyang in June 2005: "We are ready to scrap all our medium to long-range missiles if North Korea and the US could normalize diplomatic relations." It stands to reason that the North judged it possible to convince the US to enter direct negotiations by demonstrating its "nuclear and missile" cards. In addition, there seems to be another practical reason. North Korea has sold missiles to Syria, Iran, Pakistan, and other countries, reportedly earning 500 million dollars annually. Kim himself stated: "The export of missiles is trade. If there are buyers, we will sell the products." North Korea might anticipate that a success of a Taepodong-2 missile launch would turn into a perfect advertisement and contribute to making up for the money lost due to the financial sanctions imposed by other countries. (6) Patriot deployment to Kadena base likely this year against North Korea's Taepodong missiles OKINAWA TIMES (Page 1) (Full) June 21, 2006 TOKYO-The United States has told Japan in their recent intergovernmental talks over the planned realignment of US forces in Japan that the US military would deploy state-of-the-art Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-to-air guided missiles to the US Air Force's Kadena base in Okinawa Prefecture, officials said yesterday. According to an official in the realignment talks, the Japanese and US governments held a consultative meeting of working-level officials in Hawaii on June 17 to talk about missile defense (MD) and the US government then suggested the necessity of PAC-3 deployment within the year due to North Korea's making of preparations to fire a Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile. In the meeting, Japan did not refuse the proposed deployment of PAC-3 missiles. Japan will instead ask the United States for detailed explanations about the planned deployment of PAC-3 missiles, including how to share intelligence. The Japanese government had initially expected PAC-3s to be deployed by the end of fiscal 2006. The Japanese and US governments have released a final report on the US military's realignment, incorporating their agreement on the Self-Defense Forces' joint use of the Kadena airbase with the US military. However, Kadena Town Mayor Tokujitsu Miyagi remains cautious about it. The mayor will likely oppose the PAC-3 deployment to the base, taking the position that it will lead to a further reinforcement of base functions. The US government told the Japanese government this year after their release of an interim report on the US military realignment that the US military would deploy PAC-3 missiles to the Kadena base, according to a Japanese government official. Their on-base deployment site is unknown, but the base's ammunition depot area is apparently considered. The Japanese and US governments have already agreed to deploy PAC-3 missiles in Japan. The final report on the realignment of US forces specifies the US military's plan to deploy its PAC-3 capabilities to its existing facilities and areas and to make them operational at the earliest possible date. TOKYO 00003454 008 OF 010 Japan and the United States are planning to introduce an MD system designed to detect enemy-launched ballistic missiles and intercept them before their landing. An Aegis-equipped ship on stage first launches a sea-based SM-3 (Standard Missile-3) missile to shoot down a ballistic missile in outer space. In case the SM-3 fails to shoot down the projectile, ground-based PAC-3 missiles will shoot it down in the atmosphere. The PAC-3 deployment is said to be mainly for the purpose of deterring North Korea and China against the threat of their ballistic missiles. In addition, the PAC-3 is also presumed to be operational with the intelligence-gathering functions of Kadena-based RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft. (7) Analysis of Patriot missile deployment to Kadena: Reversal of move to lessen Okinawa's security burden; MD rises to a new stage OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) June 21, 2006 It has been learned that in missile defense (MD) talks between the Japanese and US governments, the US argued for the deployment within the year to Okinawa's Kadena Air Base state-of-the-art Patriot ground-to-air intercept missiles (PAC-3). The proposal would speed up deployment now planned for the end of fiscal 2006. The reason for the early deployment lies in the moves of North Korea, which is said to be readying a launch of its Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile. The plan is to deploy the PAC-3 missiles first at Kadena and then in order at such bases as Iruma in Saitama Prefecture and Hamamatsu in Shizuoka Prefecture. Accompanying the progress made in the realignment of the US forces in Japan, MD cooperation between Japan and the US also has entered a new stage. For the local governments in the area, such as Kadena-cho, the deployment of PAC-3s would only strengthen the functions of the base. Criticism is likely to come from affected local governments that this would reverse the principle of reducing the burden on Okinawa. In connection with the problem of North Korea readying its Taepodong-2 for launching, there is a strong view in the central government that it will not launch it. However, a senior official in the Defense Agency pointed out on June 16: "(Even if Taepodong-2 is launched,) we will be able to intercept and shoot it down in another several months." His comment seemed to suggest a deployment within the year could come, and it underscores that Japan and the US already are in agreement on the need for an early deployment. The Japanese government, having in mind the need to deal with a missile attack from either North Korea or China, is taking the position of "basically welcoming" a deployment in Japan of PAC-3 missiles, according to a government source. However, Kadena Air Base was once rumored to be the relocation site for Futenma Air Station, but the idea was withdrawn due to local objections. Such reactions can be expected if PAC-3s are deployed, as well. A government source stated: "Although we know the political risk, if we say anything, the US side will react sharply, asking us if we are again bringing in a local government issue." It seems that the government has no recourse but to accept the US proposal. (8) Prediction of personnel changes in Kasumigaseki: Focus on who will be picked as directors general of bureau and department to be TOKYO 00003454 009 OF 010 established JIHYO (Page 43) (Full) June 2006 Many in the Foreign Ministry believe that Administrative Vice Minister Shotaro Yachi will be retained in his post. He assumed the current post in January last year. He entered the ministry in 1969 after completing graduate-school work at the University of Tokyo. Full-scale personnel changes of senior ministry officials will likely be carried out after Koro Bessho, who will have served as a prime ministerial secretary for five years and five months when Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi steps down from office, returns to the ministry. The focus of this summer's personnel changes is on who will be picked as director general of the International Cooperation Bureau and director general of the South Asian Affairs Department. The International Cooperation Bureau will be established by integrating the related sections of the Global Issues Department into the Economic Cooperation Bureau, in order to improve the planning function of the official development assistance (ODA). The South Asian Affairs Department will also be newly set up as an organ in charge of the Asia-Pacific region, excluding such countries as China, the Korean Peninsula and Australia, for which the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau is responsible. The expectation is that the personnel changes will be announced as of August 1 in time with the organizational reform. A rumor is going around that Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau Director General Motohide Yoshikawa will be appointed as first director general of the International Cooperation Bureau, and that Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Deputy Director General Toshihisa Takata will be picked as director general of the South Asian Affairs Bureau. Yoshikawa joined the ministry in 1974 after graduating from the Faculty of Arts of International Christian University. Takata entered the ministry in 1976 after graduating from the Law Faculty of the University of Tokyo. The ministry is considering naming International Legal Affairs Division Director Takeo Akiba, who has never taken Chinese language training, as the replacement of China and Mongolia Division Director Hiroyasu Izumi. If Akiba is picked as director of the China Division, a non-China School member will serve in the post for the first time in 32 years. Akiba, a graduate of the University of Tokyo, served in such posts as director of the UN Policy Division and director of the Treaties Division after he entered the ministry in 1982. Vice Minister Yachi intends to have Akiba work on repairing Japan-China relations, which are cool because of Prime Minister Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine and other issues. Another reason is to stem growing political criticism of the so-called China School, whose members are known for always giving consideration to China. The China School members, however, strongly reacted to proposed personnel changes. The ministry initially planned to change the division directors in January, but the personnel actions have slipped to this summer. Yachi is also considering appointing Bessho when he returns to the ministry from the Prime Minister's Official Residence, to be the successor to Economic Affairs Bureau Kaoru Ishikawa, since Chikao Kawai, who joined the ministry the same year as Bessho, has been picked as director general of the North American Affairs Bureau. If so, there is a possibility that either Deputy Minister for Political Affairs Tsuneo Nishida or Deputy Minister for Economic Affairs TOKYO 00003454 010 OF 010 Mitoji Yabunaka will retire or assume an ambassadorial post. Nishida or Yabunaka who will be retained in their current post will be the replacement of Vice Minister Yachi, who will likely retire next January or next summer. Post-Yachi candidates are Nishida, Yabunaka, and Ambassador to Indonesia Shin Ebihara. The Prime Minister's Official Residence highly appreciates Yabunaka's handling of North Korea diplomacy, such as the abduction issue, during his tenure as director general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau until January last year. Nishida, however, failed in Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Ebihara was sacked in January by the Prime Minister's Official Residence as assistant deputy chief cabinet secretary. However, many take the view that Yachi's choice will be SIPDIS Ebihara. The Foreign Ministry desires to avoid anything that would prompt the Prime Minister's Official Residence to interfere in its personnel changes. The vice administrative minister race will likely move into full swing in the fall when Prime Minister Koizumi steps down. SCHIEFFER

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