JAPAN: REPORT URGES PM KOIZUMI TO ENDORSE INDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 003308 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2016 TAGS: PREL PARM KNNP ENRG JA IN SUBJECT: JAPAN: REPORT URGES PM KOIZUMI TO ENDORSE INDIA CIVIL NUCLEAR AGREEMENT REF: TOKYO 02988 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for Reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) on June 11, 2006 reported that Prime Minister Koizumi is expected to endorse the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement during his summit with President Bush in late June 2006. The article states that Koizumi's decision reflects the importance Tokyo places on its relations with the U.S. The article also reports that Koizumi is expected to give his full support for the initiative based on the assumption that India has reached agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency on a comprehensive safeguards package and because France and the United Kingdom already have endorsed the plan. Japan is expected to continue pushing India to accept IAEA inspectors at all of its nuclear facilities, including those for military use, according to the report. ¶2. (SBU) On June 12, ESToff contacted MOFA Arms Control and Disarmament Division desk officer Masamitsu Nagano and MOFA Southwest Asia Division desk officer Aoshima to discuss the report. Nagano and Aoshima both responded that the article was speculative and that Japan's position on the India agreement had not changed since Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Boucher discussed India with Vice Foreign Minister Yachi on May 30 (reftel). During that meeting, Yachi told Boucher that Japan is favorably inclined toward the agreement despite reservations about its potential impact on global non-proliferation efforts. ¶3. (C) On June 14, ESToff discussed the report with Japan Institute of International Affairs, Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-proliferation Senior Research Fellow Nobumasa Akiyama. In May 2006, a paper recommending that Japan should endorse the agreement was drafted and submitted to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) by a group of former senior government and nuclear industry officials at the request of the Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, according to Akiyama. The report highlighted the economic and strategic benefits Japan could expect from the agreement. Akiyama also told ESToff the report also argued that Japan must find a way to accept the agreement in the near term without appearing to compromise its non-proliferation and disarmament principles in the face of outside pressure. Akiyama would not speculate on whether Koizumi had seen the report, whether the Nikkei article reflected the adoption of the report's conclusions by the PMO, or whether Koizumi would indeed endorse the agreement during the summit. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Ambassador Schieffer has discussed this issue with a number of officials at the ministerial level. Their message is the Japan will endorse the India deal, and that they understand the agreement to be in their interest as well as that of the broader international community. SCHIEFFER