MOFA'S ISHIKAWA CRITICIZES NIKAI EAST ASIA FTA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 003161 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR WCUTLER, JNEUFFER PARIS FOR USOECD GENEVA FOR U.S. MISSION TO WTO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 TAGS: ECON ETRD PREL JA APECO SUBJECT: MOFA'S ISHIKAWA CRITICIZES NIKAI EAST ASIA FTA PROPOSAL, ADVOCATES STRONG ASEAN PLUS 1 FTA, CLAIMS TO SUPPORT APEC, WAITS FOR BRAZIL TO MOVE IN WTO REF: A. TOKYO 3045 ¶B. TOKYO 2991 TOKYO 00003161 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: DCM Joseph Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Japan needs WTO negotiations to move forward while MAFF Minister Nakagawa is still in place, MOFA Economic Affairs DG Ishikawa told visiting APEC Ambassador Michalak, but Brazil needs to move first before Nakagawa can play his hand. Ishikawa cited problems with METI Minister Nikai's proposal for an East Asian trade agreement, adding that it faces opposition within the Japanese government and commenting that Japan would do better to aim for a good result in its ASEAN plus one trade negotiations, on which he leads for MOFA. While claiming that MOFA supports APEC, Ishikawa also confirmed that MOFA's APEC senior official will continue to divide his time between APEC and MOFA's Latin America Bureau. Ishikawa remained confident that bilateral beef trade would resume soon, but not before PM Koizumi visits the U.S. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) U.S. Ambassador for APEC Michael Michalak called on MOFA Director General for Economic Affairs Kaoru Ishikawa June 2. Embassy Economic Counselor Fantozzi and Economic Officer Ries accompanied. WTO ) now or never, but Japan can't go first -------------- ¶3. (C) Ishikawa commented that Agriculture Minister Nakagawa's tenure creates a window of opportunity for Japan to advance Doha negotiations, but he predicted that the window will close if Nakagawa moves on as part of a Cabinet shuffle when PM Koizumi steps down in September. At the same time, Ishikawa suggested that because on balance Japan will lose from any possible Doha Development Agenda outcome, Japan cannot make the first move in WTO negotiations. Those who will win, such as Brazil, should go first, he asserted, and then Nakagawa would be in a position to "play the cards he has in his pocket." In addition to frustration with Brazil, Ishikawa expressed concern that EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson needs to visit EU capitals and demonstrate that he will be able to negotiate successfully the allocation of the EU's "sensitive" 8% of tariff lines among member states. ¶4. (C) For Japan's part, Ishikawa expressed more concern for the social effects of agricultural liberalization than for agricultural trade interests. Japan has 8.5 million households deriving income from agriculture, of which the majority of household heads are over 65 years of age and many are widows living in remote places, he observed. While Japanese farmers can develop markets in Shanghai and Bangkok for high-end produce, Japan needs time so that "these old ladies can spend their final years in dignity." Focus on ASEAN plus one, not EAS -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to Japan's bilateral and regional trade negotiations, Ishikawa said Japan is waiting for the air to clear following Thai elections before trying to set a new date to sign that agreement. Negotiations with the Philippines had been set back when the GOP reopened everything agreed so far. By contrast, Ishikawa characterized Japan's trade talks with Vietnam and Indonesia as proceeding on track. Noting that he himself was leading only on Japan's ASEAN plus one "umbrella" negotiation, Ishikawa said he believed he had found a solution to the challenge of establishing legal consistency between that prospective agreement and Japan's prospective bilateral agreements with individual ASEAN members. ¶6. (C) Ishikawa criticized the East Asian Economic Partnership Agreement concept being advanced by Trade Minister Nikai as problematic because the only way to make such an agreement legally consistent with the bilateral and ASEAN plus one agreements now being negotiated would be to go to the lowest common denominator. China, he added, lacks legal stability, does not respect intellectual property, and has an ambiguous competition policy. Moreover, the zero TOKYO 00003161 002 OF 003 tariff coverage of China's agreement with ASEAN covered only 4.9% of trade, reflecting China's contention that it is a developing country and therefore not bound by the same WTO standards as industrialized countries. ¶7. (C) Asked about GOJ discussion of the Nikai proposal, Ishikawa remarked that while it is on the agenda of the Cabinet-level Council for Economic & Fiscal Policy, it also faces opposition from Agriculture Minister Nakagawa and Foreign Minister Aso. Ishikawa said the Cabinet Office had summoned him and his METI and MOF counterparts to a meeting earlier in the week to discuss the Nikai proposal. In that venue Ishikawa had urged that priority be given to Japan's ASEAN plus one negotiations and questioned the need for the Nikai proposal, which he characterized as motivated by fear of China. "We should have confidence in ourselves and good diplomacy with our neighbors," Ishikawa said. (He said his position resulted in a shouting match with his METI counterpart.) Ishikawa acknowledged that Minister Nikai must be allowed to save face, but at the same time he indicated clearly through body language that he does not expect the proposal to lead to any concrete result. Where is MOFA on APEC? -------------- ¶8. (C) DG Ishikawa sidestepped Ambassador Michalak's questions as to whether reports were true that Japan had proposed holding ministerial meetings as part of the East Asian Summit process at a recent senior level meeting on the EAS and how this would fit in with Japan's support for the APEC process (see reftel A). By way of affirming his support for APEC, Ishikawa asserted that he personally had tabled Japan's offer to host APEC in 2010. Michalak welcomed Japan's offer to host in 2010 but he noted that 2010 is still four years away. Ishikawa listened politely but made no commitment when Michalak expressed hope that Japan might help fund U.S.-proposed projects aimed at enhancing cooperation between APEC and ASEAN. ¶9. (C) Michalak observed that many in APEC and the U.S. are puzzled by the fact that MOFA's APEC senior official, Satoru Sato, spends roughly half of his time in MOFA's Latin America bureau. Ishikawa defended the arrangement as necessary because of civil service limits on the number of deputies DGs in MOFA, and he professed not to have been aware that Sato's division of duties had created any doubts about MOFA's commitment to APEC. At the same time he made clear that Sato's successor, a Mr. Mizukami who is returning to MOFA from a detail to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA),would continue to split his time between MOFA's Economic Affairs and Latin America Bureaus. Beef Trade Opening Soon -------------- ¶10. (C) Reprising comments he made to EAP PDAS Stephens earlier in the week (reftel B),Ishikawa remained optimistic that bilateral beef trade would resume, but he predicted that it would not happen by the time Prime Minister Koizumi is scheduled to meet the President in late June. He said that the GOJ would not provide a timetable but the USG could extrapolate one from the list of steps to be undertaken before the trade resumed. In order to expedite GOJ inspections of U.S. facilities that must accomplished before trade can restart, Ishikawa said that efforts were under way to detail MAFF experts to supplement the four experts at MHLW so that it would be possible to field more inspection teams. Ishikawa added that Japanese Ambassador Kato has been meeting with U.S. members of Congress in an effort to convey the GOJ's sincerity about reopening beef trade. No strong incentive for a U.S.-Japan FTA -------------- ¶11. (C) On U.S.-Japan economic relations, Ishikawa said he had changed the tone of the Prime Minister's Diet Q&A on a possible U.S.-Japan FTA to ensure that the GOJ's hands were not tied, but he opined that the added value of negotiating such an agreement would be small because the U.S.-Japan economic relations are already so close. TOKYO 00003161 003 OF 003 SCHIEFFER