U.S.-JAPAN POLICY PLANNING BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 002659

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ASEAN KS CH JA
SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN POLICY PLANNING BILATERAL

REF: A. TOKYO 2609

B. TOKYO 2610

C. TOKYO 2612

D. TOKYO 2637

E. TOKYO 2638

F. TOKYO 2639

G. TOKYO 2640

H. TOKYO 2650

I. TOKYO 2655

J. TOKYO 2656

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Joe Donovan. Reason: 1.4 (B) AND
(D)


1. (C) Summary. Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UN
Security Council and Japan's leadership role in Asia were the
main topics of a May 11 conversation between U.S. and
Japanese policy planners. DVFM Kohno told S/P Director
Stephen D. Krasner that he had expected the U.S. to make a
counterproposal to Japan's UN Security Council reform
proposal, and remarked that time was growing short before the
UN adjourned for the summer and the upcoming summit. Japan
aspires to be a "thought leader" in Asia, Kohno state,
building on its own experiences to support a region of free
markets and democratic societies. Kohno described the East
Asia Summit a venue in which to engage China as a stakeholder
in the international system. End Summary.

UN Security Council Reform
--------------


2. (C) Deputy Vice Minister for Foreign Policy Masaharu Kohno
made a strong call for U.S.-Japan bilateral coordination and
for more tangible and explicit U.S. support for Japan's bid
for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council during a May
11 U.S.-Japan policy planning bilateral meeting. Little
progress had been made despite a lot of bilateral discussion,
Kohno said. Prime Minister Koizumi, he said, had recently
called this one of Japan's highest priority issues. Kohno
wanted to "impress on the U.S." how important this issue is,
and said that his specific message for the U.S. government is
that if Japan had a permanent seat on the Security Council,
it would constructively contribute to the future of the UN.


3. (C) Kohno, speaking "rather frankly," remarked that in his
30 years experience working with the United States, Japan has
collaborated well on U.S. initiatives. Now the tables are
turned, and he had the "expectation" that in response to
Japan's proposal on Security Council expansion, the U.S.
would make a constructive, clear-cut counterproposal -- but
none has been forthcoming. Since Prime Minister Koizumi will
attend a summit in the U.S. and is nearing the end of his
term as prime minister, and because the UN session will
adjourn for summer, Japan has a pressing need to receive the
U.S. response, Kohno said. Japan would not give up its bid
for a permanent seat in the Security Council, Kohno stressed,
and this effort would be a "never-ending process" of
proposals until Japan is successful.


4. (C) If Japan were to bid for a permanent seat, he was
"dead confident" that Japan would receive the required 2/3
majority of votes, Kohno explained. To set the stage for
this, more tangible U.S. support for Japan's bid is required
because a number of countries have asked if the U.S. truly
supports Japan's bid. Japan's "hidden agenda" on this is to
start the process jointly with the United States, because
this action will have its own significance in the U.S.-Japan
bilateral relationship and in the UNSC reform process, Kohno
confided.


5. (C) When asked how he expected China and South Korea to
react to the U.S. acting jointly with Japan on Japan's UN
Security Council bid, Kohno expressed optimism that while
China is currently engaging in a negative campaign, in the
end China would not oppose the other members of the Security
Council, particularly the United States. On the other hand,
he thought it would be difficult for South Korea to change
its position due to the current ROK domestic political
climate. DCM Donovan responded to Kohno's assessment by
pointing out that China's actions on this issue have been
opportunistic: it is forward-leaning when discussing
Security Council expansion with other countries interested in
obtaining their own permanent membership in the UNSC because
China believes the chances of expansion are slim. In
reality, China would be loath to expand the Security Council
since this could be seen as diminishing China's influence.
Therefore, Japan should not assume that China would
eventually not block Japan's bid if confronted with a strong
majority,


6. (C) Despite Japan's latest proposal of a two-permanent

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seat expansion, Kohno said he still believed the six-seat
proposal was ideal. Two seats are definitely the lowest
Japan could go and still carry the required vote, he said.
When asked his opinion on which country should be the other
candidate, Kohno responded that perhaps there should be one
developed country (Japan) and one developing country
(undetermined). Kohno declined to comment when Krasner asked
him to think through the scenarios that would lead to India,
Brazil, or South Africa being elected as part of the pair
with Japan.


7. (C) If there were a clear strategy on UN Security Council
reform that would work, the U.S. would be doing it already,
Krasner opined. Kohno respondQby making a strong case for
starting the process of UN Security Council reform, and
resolving the expansion issue once the process was set in
motion. When Japan and the U.S. see how people react, and
what problems arise, they could come up with a plan to deal
with them, he suggested. If that approach did not work,
Japan could always stop and re-think the process. Krasner
counter-suggested that the Japanese government might want to
develop a strategy that included elaborating on several
possible scenarios, including the name of the other candidate
country and the expected deals required to ensure getting the
needed number of votes, rather than feeling it out as they
went along.

History Issues and Japan's Leadership in Asia
--------------


8. (C) Kohno shared his views on Japan's leadership role in
Asia. He said that with the 1977 Fukuda Doctrine, Japan
focused on nurturing relationships with its Asian neighbors.
ASEAN expanded following the end of the Cold War. In the
1990s, Japan, South Korea, and China began their own
three-party dialogue, and joined the ASEAN 3 meetings. In
the ensuing years, issues such as economic interdependence,
intra-regional trade, and cross-border/global issues have
been pulling the region together. The East Asia Summit (EAS)
is an outgrowth of this, Kohno explained, and shows that the
regional concept of Southeast Asia has been replaced with a
region called East Asia. Including India, Australia, and New
Zealand in the East Asia Summit was Japan's idea, in order to
better reflect the wide-ranging East Asian community. The
East Asia Summit is an additional organization that can
engage China to make it more of a stakeholder in the regional
system, Kohno stated.


9. (C) Kohno concluded that Japan's "friends first" policy
has served Japan well, and noted that Foreign Minister Aso
has described Japan as the "thought leader" of the region.
Nobukatsu Kanehara, Political Minister of Japan's Embassy in
Washington, expanded on Kohno's comments by adding that Japan
has had to earn back the leadership role it lost in 1945.
Since Japan has already experienced urbanization and
democratization, Japan can understand what its Asian
neighbors are experiencing, help them, and earn back its
reputation and leadership role, Kaneharu said.


10. (C) S/P Member Evan Feigenbaum replied by noting three
"disconnects" in the U.S. perception of pan-Asian
"community"-building. First, Southeast Asia has been the
locus of regional multilateralism but the locus of power to
deal with real problems lies with Northeast Asian countries.
Second, ASEAN itself is very diverse. It includes democracies
and non-democracies, economies that have embraced
globalization, like Singapore, and economies that have not,
like Burma, and thus the notion of "community" is a bit
vague. Third, pan-Asian groups like EAS lack a functional
agenda. The U.S. generally favors a functional approach that
builds a track-record of success in jointly solving problems.


11. (C) Japan is viewed in Asia as a responsible leader,
Kohno asserted, and vieQits participation in pan-Asian
groups as part of this. Krasner responded that if you want
to play the ambitious role of "thought leader," you have to
consider the views of your neighbors and address them.
Krasner said he wanted to "toss out" some ideas. Krasner
asked whether Japan was trying to understand why its
neighbors were raising questions related to history,
textbooks and Yasukuni Shrine. Krasner stated that he had no
opinion about Japanese behavior, but noted that the view of
Japan's neighbors was making it difficult for Japan to be a
regional leader.


12. (C) Koji Tomita, Minister of Japan's Embassy in Seoul,
responded that this requires a willingness on the part of
China and South Korea to accept Japan as it is. Mentioning
history issues was merely focusing on the negatives. Japan
has also overhauled its political system and created an
affluent, democratic society. This is a role model for

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neighboring countries, Tomita suggested. Kanehara added that
a 1980s law ensures textbooks take neighboring countries'
concerns into account, and that it is not government policy
to visit Yasukuni Shrine, but rather a personal decision on
the part of the prime minister that happened to cause
diplomatic disputes.


13. (C) DCM Donovan remarked that "good friends" have to have
these difficult conversations sometimes, and that the
U.S.-Japan bilateral relationship could also be a positive
model for Asia since the United States has crafted a
forward-looking relationship that does not ignore history but
does it dwell on it, either. Krasner seconded this view, and
said that to have Japan as "a leader, the leader" of Asia
would be a very attractive outcome for the United States.

Participants
--------------


14. (U) Participants in the meeting included:

United States
--------------

Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff
Joe Donovan, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy Tokyo
James Zumwalt, Economic Minister-Counselor, Embassy Tokyo
Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member
David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo
Geneve Menscher, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker)

Japan
--------------

Masaharu Kohno, Deputy Vice Minister for Foreign Policy
Nobukatsu Kanehara, Minister, Japan Embassy in Washington
Koji Tomita, Minister, Japan Embassy in Seoul
Mr. Osamu Izawa, Principal Senior Foreign Policy Coordinator
Mr. Shinya Fujita, Deputy Director, Policy Planning Division
Wakako Imataka, Official, Policy Planning Division

15. (U) S/P Director Krasner cleared this message.
DONOVAN