U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TALKS, SESSION 4:

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002654 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IR IZ XF AF KS JA SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TALKS, SESSION 4: THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary. In Session 4 U.S.-Japan-ROK policy planning talks, discussion focused on the future of the Middle East. S/P Director Stephen D. Krasner briefed on U.S. policy toward Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP). Japanese DVFM Kohno said that Middle East developments have a significant impact on Japanese foreign policy, called this a crucial year for determining the success of Iraq,s reconstruction, and pledged Japan,s commitment to work closely with the U.S. and UN to influence Iran. Kohno and South Korean Deputy Minister Park In-kook were interested in whether the U.S. had a timeline for possible military action against Iran -- should diplomacy fail. Park suggested the international community should better define the concept of which values to pursue in promoting democratization, said the Iranian regime will likely respond to international pressure by trying to drive a wedge between UNSC members and others, stated Iraq was actually going better than he had expected when he was ROK ambassador to Kuwait, and asked for long-term U.S. commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In Session 4 of the U.S.-ROK-Japan Policy Planning Trilateral on May 12, S/P Director Stephen D. Krasner briefed Japanese Deputy Vice Foreign Minister Kohno and ROK Deputy Minister Park In-kook on U.S. policy in the Middle East, specifically including Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) and the Global War on Terror, and also democratization in the region as a whole. Stressing that previous models for dealing with security were untenable in the post-9/11 world of transnational terrorist threats flourishing in oppressive, autocratic regimes, Krasner described U.S. policy as recognizing the challenges to bringing democracy to the region, but also seeking to move countries to attainable levels of democracy over time. ¶3. (C) The U.S. is committed to pursuing a diplomatic track to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program, Krasner said, and while we are hoping for success through the UNSC, like-minded countries should be also thinking of other measures which could be adopted to pressure and isolate the Iranian regime. Progress is being made in Iraq, and the U.S. will remain committed for the long term to securing a stable democracy, he stated. On the Middle East Peace Process, he explained that the Roadmap is still the model to follow, and that while it is clear Israel intends to take unilateral steps to withdraw from Gaza and build a security wall, the U.S. hope is that it will allow for a viable Palestinian entity which could lead to a two-state solution. ¶4. (C) Kohno said that Middle East developments have a significant impact on Japanese foreign policy, and noted that since 9/11 Japan has passed two special measures laws (for Afghanistan and Iraq) authorizing the unprecedented dispatch of Japanese Self-Defense Forces overseas. He also alluded to Japan,s $5 billion pledge for Iraq and called this a crucial year for determining the success of Iraq,s reconstruction. He said he was convinced Iran seeks to acquire nuclear weapons, and pledged Japan,s commitment to work closely with the U.S. and in the UN to influence Iran to stop. Kohno asked, later echoed by Park, what the ultimate timeline was for the U.S. on Iran, i.e., should diplomacy fail, at what point would the U.S. take military action? Krasner replied that he did not feel it was inevitable that diplomacy would fail, and encouraged Japan and Korea to support vigorous efforts which could persuade Iran to cease its program. ¶5. (C) Park said that in his experience as ambassador to Kuwait, democratization had two important aspects: 1) procedural democracy through elections and institutions, and 2) assimilation of democratic values. Citing Egypt and the Palestinian Authority as two places where democracy had proceeded procedurally but not produced democratic values, he suggested the international community should better define the concept of which values to pursue in democratization. On Iran, Park said the Iranian regime will likely respond to pressure by trying to drive a wedge between opponents, and he asked what impact there might be should there be instability in Strait of Hormuz. Iraq was actually going better than he had expected when he was in Kuwait as ROK ambassador. He asked for the U.S. timeline for withdrawing militarily from Iraq, noting the potential for a vacuum that would exploited by terrorists. Krasner reiterated the U.S. is committed to long-term success in Iraq and Afghanistan, adding that any decision on when to withdraw would be based on conditions on the ground and would be made by a mutual agreement between governments. Participants -------------- ¶6. (U) Participants in the meeting included: United States -------------- Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff Jim Zumwalt, ECON Minister-Counselor, Embassy Tokyo Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo Joel Ehrendreich, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker) Japan -------------- Masaharu Kohno, MOFA Deputy Vice-Minister for Foreign Policy Nobukatsu Kanehara, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Washington) Koji Tomita, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Seoul) Hiroshi Kawamura, MOFA Director, Policy Planning Division Shinya Fujita, MOFA Deputy Director, Policy Planning Division Mayu Hagiwara, MOFA Deputy Director, Policy Planning Division South Korea -------------- Park In-kook, Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and International Organizations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT) Yeon Sang-mo, Minister Counselor, ROK Embassy Tokyo Hahn Choong-hee, Director, North America Division I, MOFAT Oh Song, Director, Policy Planning and Coordination Division, MOFAT Kim Ki-woong, Director, Inter-Korean Policy Division, MOFAT Park Ki-jun, Deputy Director for North-East Asia Division II, MOFAT Park Young-kyu, Deputy Director for Policy Planning and Coordination Division, MOFAT ¶7. (U) S/P Director Krasner cleared this message. DONOVAN