S/P DIRECTOR KRASNER'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH JDA VM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002640 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2021 TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL JA SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR KRASNER'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH JDA VM MORIYA REF: A. TOKOYO 2609 ¶B. TOKYO 2610 ¶C. TOKYO 2612 ¶D. TOKYO 2637 ¶E. TOKYO 2638 ¶F. TOKYO 2639 TOKYO 00002640 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan reasons 1.4(b/d). ¶1. SUMMARY: (C) During their May 10 meeting, S/P Director Krasner and Japan Defense Agency (JDA) Administrative Vice Minister Moriya reviewed Japanese efforts to implement the Security Consultative Committee agreement on alliance transformation and the evolution of Japan's role in international security and future relations with NATO. Krasner observed that Japan faces many of the same external threats and domestic constraints as other nations and asked Moriya how Japan could play a larger role in meeting these international security challenges. Moriya maintained that Japan has already made great progress in adapting to the new international security environment but said Japan's role can continue to expand as long as there is domestic and international support. END SUMMARY. Implementing Alliance Transformation Agreements -------------- -- ¶2. (C) During a May 10 meeting, Japan Defense Agency (JDA) Administrative Vice Minister Takemasa Moriya told S/P Director Stephen D. Krasner that he had been briefing Japanese legislators on the recent agreement on alliance transformation that obligates Tokyo to pay part of the cost of moving 8,000 U.S. Marines and their dependents to Guam from Okinawa. Given Japan's difficult fiscal environment, both supporters and detractors of the agreement are keenly interested in its details and the modalities for financing Japan's share. Moriya said he explained to the Diet members that Japan's regional security environment is characterized by China's massive defense buildup and DPRK's nuclear weapons program and missile proliferation. This environment makes the U.S.-Japan alliance and presence of U.S. forces necessary, although both sides recognize that some key airfields and installations are now surrounded by urbanized areas. The transformation agreement will allow the U.S. to shift forces and operations away from population centers, creating a more stable and sustainable alliance. ¶3. (C) In response to Krasner's query whether Japan will need to increase future defense spending past the informal one-percent-of-GNP ceiling, Moriya said he believes that Japan will have to increase its defense budget in order to implement its realignment commitments in a way that does not severely restrict spending on the Self Defense Forces. Moriya opined that JDA needed to make a study of future defense costs within the next six months. Becoming a Security Provider -------------- ¶4. (C) Krasner asked Moriya to consider how the tangible international threats to Japan posed by terrorism, proliferation and regional tensions can be reconciled with Japan's domestic political constraints on JDA, the SDF, and Japan's security posture. Will Japan be able to play the larger and more active role in international security required to meet global challenges, he asked. Moriya asserted that, since the end of the Cold War, Japan had quickly reacted to the evolving international environment. Japan had enacted a series of laws that permitted the Self Defense Forces to deploy overseas and to support U.S. forces TOKYO 00002640 002.2 OF 002 involved in military operations in areas surrounding Japan. He counted off legislative steps, cabinet decisions and bilateral agreements in the area of international security. ¶5. (C) What kind of international role Japan will play in the future will depend on the attitude of the Japanese people and the stance of other countries in the region, Moriya continued. Krasner pressed Moriya for specifics on how Japan might do more in post-conflict situations in areas like Iraq and Sierra Leone. Moriya said that Japan is cautious about dispatching troops abroad, but that the 20 deployments made in the last 15 years have all gone well. He cited polls indicating wide public support for humanitarian deployments. Japan-NATO -------------- ¶6. (C) Krasner asked how Japan views the possibility of expanded relations with NATO. Moriya replied that Japan's security relations had been focused almost exclusively on the United States for more than 35 years. In the last decade, however, Japan had begun to develop defense ties with other countries. Japan now has framework agreements with 20 other nations and ad hoc security relations with five or six more, said Moriya. In a globalized environment characterized by inexpensive air travel and worldwide communications networks, Japan's security interests extend beyond Northeast Asia. Moriya noted that his European counterparts hold very different views on China and on the need for a EU arms embargo on Beijing. If only to close this perception gap, Japan needs to build links with NATO, he concluded. ¶7. (U) Participants in the meeting included: United States -------------- Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff Joe Donovan, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy Tokyo Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member Apar Sidhu, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker) David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo Japan -------------- Takemasa Moriya, JDA Administrative Vice Minister Kenjiro Monji, JDA Director General for Int'l Affairs Hironori Kanazawa, JDA Deputy Director General ¶8. (U) S/P Director Krasner cleared this message. DONOVAN