S/P KRASNER'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH MOFA DG FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002612 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/J, EAP/EP. PLEASE PASS TO USTR CUTLER, BEEMAN, NEUFFER. GENEVA FOR USTR E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2026 TAGS: ETRD PREL ASEAN CH KS JA SUBJECT: S/P KRASNER'S MAY 10 MEETING WITH MOFA DG FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS ISHIKAWA REF: A. TOKYO 2609 ¶B. TOKYO 2610 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Donovan. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d) . ¶1. (C) Summary: Japan is pursuing a series of bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in Asia in order to meet the challenge of China's active economic diplomacy, even though it would prefer progress within the WTO framework, said MOFA DG for Economic Affairs Bureau Kaoru Ishikawa in a May 10 meeting with Policy Planning Director Dr. Stephen D. Krasner. Indeed, Japan should not see itself as in competition with China's ideas, since its trade proposals, investment, and economic role in Asia are much more substantial. Japan does not need always to be reacting to the ideas of others. Japan should be able to conclude an umbrella ASEAN FTA without too much difficulty because there is plenty of overlap in the bilateral FTAs it is negotiating with seven of the 10 ASEAN countries. Japan wants to bolster the ASEAN economies to strengthen their independence from China. Japan's talks with South Korea on an FTA remain stalled. Ishikawa said MOFA rejects Trade Minister Nikai's proposed East Asia Economic Partnership concept. End Summary. Japan/ASEAN FTAs -- Playing Catch-up -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Japan is playing catch-up and pursuing FTAs in the region out of necessity, not preference, MOFA DG for Economic Affairs Ishikawa explained to S/P Director Krasner during a May 10 meeting. So far, Japan has only two Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in force, with Singapore and Mexico. Last month the Diet approved the agreement with Malaysia. An agreement with Thailand was reached but not yet signed because of the Thai government's problems. Talks with the Philippines are nearly finished, but Ishikawa added that he has been saying that for a long time. Talks with Indonesia have started and should go well because the Indonesian negotiating team is quite good, according to Ishikawa. Japan has also started talking to Brunei and has set up a study group with Vietnam, leaving only three out of ten ASEAN members (Cambodia, Laos, and Burma) without bilateral FTA talks. Japan has also started talking to India, Australia, Chile, Switzerland, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries about the possibility of negotiating FTAs. ¶3. (SBU) For Japan to realize the goal of an umbrella ASEAN FTA, consistency is important, Ishikawa noted. Fortunately, MOFA has concluded that the majority of the GOJ "offers" in bilateral FTA talks are overlapping and Ishikawa believes that an FTA with ASEAN is achievable. He explained that Japan prefers to call the agreements Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) because they go beyond tariff cuts and trade liberalization to include development and training programs. ¶4. (SBU) Japan's prospective FTAs with ASEAN countries are very different from the China/ASEAN FTA, Ishikawa asserted, because Japanese investment in ASEAN is high, tariffs are already low, and there is a large amount of trade in intermediate goods. Japan and ASEAN economies are already intertwined. Ishikawa stated that Japanese investment has played a key role in Southeast Asia's rapid growth since the 1980s. About 300,000 Thais work for Japanese companies (vs. 600,000 Americans working for Japanese companies in the U.S.),according to Japanese government data Ishikawa cited. Turning to the Philippines, Ishikawa pointed out that about 70 per cent of trade in both directions is composed of machinery and electrical appliances, not a lopsided trade of Japanese cars for bananas that many envision. Much of Japan's trade with ASEAN countries consists of exports by Japanese companies to another branch of the same company (e.g., parts exported from Japan to assembly plants in ASEAN countries.) China/ASEAN Relations -------------- ¶5. (C) Japan wants to improve the competitiveness of ASEAN countries as a bulwark against their real competitor -- China, Ishikawa asserted. A strong, prosperous ASEAN is in Japan's interest, and Japan is happy to see that ASEAN exports to China are rising fast. He contrasted Japan's trade and investments in Southeast Asia, with China's which TOKYO 00002612 002 OF 002 he characterized as simple trade in goods for the most part. The China/ASEAN FTA focuses on lowering tariffs, whereas Japan's agreements also include training and cooperation programs and investment, Japan/ROK FTA on Hold -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to South Korea, Ishikawa showed his frustration with the lack of progress on a bilateral FTA. Japan's message to South Korea is that it is ready at any time to discuss an FTA and is interested in re-starting talks, but Seoul stated it was not satisfied with Japan's "opening offer" in FTA talks, Ishikawa explained. He then read off a stream of statistics to show just how interdependent Japan and Korea's economies are, from agricultural products to high-tech. Ishikawa pointed out that virtually all of Korea's high tech exports, from semiconductors to cars, are dependent on components imported from Japan. Japan/China/ROK Investment Agreement Goes Nowhere -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Japan has tried a different approach with China, Ishikawa continued. Attempting to build on bilateral investment agreements with both China and South Korea, Ishikawa proposed a trilateral investment agreement in Beijing last fall. The main elements would include national treatment and most favored nation status, but China balked. Japan/China Relations: the Cold War Continues -------------- ¶8. (C) Ishikawa stated flatly that neither he nor FM Aso agree with Trade Minister Nikai's East Asia partnership idea. Four GOJ ministers -- FM Aso, Trade Minister Nikai, Agriculture Minister Nakagawa and Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe would be discussing the issue that day (May 10.) He believes that Japan must develop ideas that look out for its own interests and should not just react to the ideas of others. Still, Japan must deal with the region it finds itself in and is clearly interested in a stable and prosperous China. Ishikawa said he was dismayed that China does not comply with international standards in it trade with other countries, for example in its investments in Africa. He contrasted the situation in Europe with the situation in Asia where the Cold War is not over. A billion people in China prefer communism to democracy, and so the ideological struggle of the cold war continues, he said. Ishikawa lamented the fact that the post-war generation of Chinese and Japanese leaders lack the personal ties and knowledge of each other's countries that existed even through the Mao era. He noted that many senior Chinese Communist Party leaders had studied in Japan before 1945, so that even if relations were poor on an official level, personal ties had persisted. Participants -------------- ¶9. (U) Participants in the meeting included: U.S. -------------- Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff Jim Zumwalt, Economic Minister Counselor, Embassy Tokyo Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo Marilyn Ereshefsky, Economic Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker) Japan -------------- Kaoru Ishikawa, Director General, Economic Affairs Bureau, MOFA Katsuro Nagai, Deputy Director, Economic Policy Division, Economic Bureau, MOFA ¶10. (U) S/P Director Krasner cleared this message. SCHIEFFER