UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 002500
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/09/06
INDEX:
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance
(2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary
of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK
will surely go from bad to worse
(3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on
effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines
unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages
(4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to
be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch
(5) Kakushin (Heart of matter) column by Yasuhiro Tase: Since
Japan appears to have forgotten its diplomatic strategy toward
neighboring nations, how then will it live in Asia?
(6) In voting conducted by civic group on Constitution, many
youths in Shibuya support Article 9
(7) Strategic distribution of ODA funds; Overseas Economic
Cooperation Council holds first meeting; Consideration also to be
given to environment area
ARTICLES:
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance
YOMIURI (Page 15) (Abridged)
April 25, 2006
Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage.)
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has been in office for nearly five
years. What's your overall rating for the performance of Prime
Minister Koizumi and his cabinet over the past five years?
Appreciate very much 17.3
Appreciate somewhat 53.1
Don't appreciate very much 18.4
Don't appreciate at all 9.4
No answer (N/A) 1.8
Q: What do you think the Koizumi cabinet has accomplished in
particular over the past five years? Pick as many as you like
from among those listed below.
Postal privatization 44.3
Highway privatization 25.0
North Korea problem 24.8
Bad-loan write-off 15.5
Economic, employment measures 15.3
Decentralization 7.4
Deregulation 8.4
Fiscal reconstruction 5.9
Iraq problem 5.9
Food safety 4.1
Tax reform 2.9
Social security reform 2.0
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Emergency legislation, crisis management 1.9
US military base issues 1.9
Educational reform 1.8
Public security, crime prevention 1.5
Constitutional issues 1.0
Other answers (O/A) + nothing in particular (NIP) + no answer
(N/A) 21.1
Q: The Koizumi cabinet has written off bad loans and advanced
deregulation. Do you think the Japanese economy is changing for
the better with these structural reforms?
Yes 15.5
Yes to a certain degree 39.2
No to a certain degree 22.3
No 17.8
N/A 5.3
Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, business
corporations are now competing for better services and lower
prices, and the people will be better off." Do you agree to this
opinion?
Yes 13.2
Yes to a certain degree 27.8
No to a certain degree 27.2
No 26.9
N/A 5.0
Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, the
nation's social divide is widening." Do you agree to this
opinion?
Yes 33.6
Yes to a certain degree 25.4
No to a certain degree 20.1
No 14.9
N/A 6.0
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") What do you think is that?
Pick as many as you like from among those listed below.
Disparity in income, assets 61.2
Intergenerational disparity in social security, including
pensions 46.5
Disparity between big and small businesses 45.1
Disparity between full- and part-time wages 37.9
Disparity between urban and local districts 37.9
Disparity between those who can receive higher education and
those who cannot 19.7
Disparity in opportunities to turn on individual skills at work
9.4
Disparity in opportunities to try again after failing 8.1
O/A+N/A 1.0
Q: Some say recent scandals-such as an architect's falsification
of earthquake resistance data on buildings and Livedoor Co.'s
illegal trading in securities-have something to do with the
reported deterioration of corporate ethics and morals. Do you
agree to this opinion?
Yes 11.4
Yes to a certain degree 15.0
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No to a certain degree 20.8
No 49.3
N/A 3.6
Q: What's your overall rating for the Koizumi cabinet's
structural reforms on the whole?
Plus 16.6
Plus to a certain extent 43.7
Minus to a certain extent 20.2
Minus 9.7
N/A 9.8
Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's policy measures
at home over the past five years?
Appreciate very much 14.1
Appreciate somewhat 52.8
Don't appreciate very much 21.9
Don't appreciate at all 8.0
N/A 3.2
Q: Do you think Japan-US relations have improved over the past
five years, or do you otherwise think Japan-US relations have
worsened?
Improved 19.0
Improved to a certain extent 43.9
Worsened to a certain extent 17.4
Worsened 4.9
N/A 14.8
Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's deployment of
Self-Defense Forces members to Iraq for humanitarian
reconstruction assistance?
Appreciate very much 13.5
Appreciate somewhat 37.8
Don't appreciate very much 26.7
Don't appreciate at all 18.4
N/A 3.6
Q: (Only for those who answered "appreciate") Why? Pick as many
reasons as you like from among those listed below.
Because SDF activities are appreciated by Iraqi people
20.7
Because SDF activities are limited to humanitarian reconstruction
only 50.4
Because Japan could play its role to a certain extent in the
international community 60.1
Because Japan could strengthen its alliance with the US
15.0
O/A 1.0
N/A 1.4
Q: (Only for those who answered "don't appreciate") Why? Pick as
many reasons as you like from among those listed below.
Because SDF activities are not appreciated by Iraqi people
25.4
Because SDF members may be involved in a battle
42.8
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Because I'm against the SDF's overseas dispatch
32.6
Because Prime Minister Koizumi is at America's beck and call
59.1
O/A 2.4
N/A 0.6
Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's two visits to
North Korea in September 2002 and May 2004 and his meetings with
Kim Jong Il?
Appreciate very much 37.5
Appreciate somewhat 43.4
Don't appreciate very much 11.5
Don't appreciate at all 5.2
N/A 2.5
Q: What do you think should be addressed on a priority basis over
North Korea issues? Pick as many as you like from among those
listed below.
Stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons 61.6
Stop North Korea from developing missiles 44.7
Resolve the problem of Japanese abductees 81.7
Normalize diplomatic relations 21.7
Extend economic cooperation to North Korea 5.3
Impose economic sanctions on North Korea 26.3
Urge North Korea to change its political and economic systems
16.0
O/A+NIP 1.4
N/A 0.9
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi pledged to visit Yasukuni Shrine when
he ran in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential
election in 2001, and he has annually visited there. Are you in
favor of his visit to the shrine?
Yes 28.2
Yes to a certain degree 25.9
No to a certain degree 19.3
No 20.6
N/A 6.0
Q: Against the backdrop of China's denunciation of Prime Minister
Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the leaders of Japan and
China have made no mutual visits since October 2001. What do you
think about the present state of Japan-China relations?
Very serious 52.9
Somewhat serious 39.3
Not very serious 19.7
Not serious at all 5.3
N/A 2.9
Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi is to blame for the
present state of Japan-China relations?
Very much 21.4
Somewhat 39.3
Not very much 21.6
Not at all 14.1
N/A 3.6
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Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's diplomacy over
the past five years?
Appreciate very much 11.6
Appreciate somewhat 47.1
Don't appreciate very much 27.5
Don't appreciate at all 10.1
N/A 3.7
Q: Do you think Japanese politics has changed for the better over
the past five years, or do you otherwise think it has changed for
the worse?
Better 12.5
Better to a certain degree 43.1
Worse to a certain degree 24.4
Worse 7.9
N/A 12.2
Q: (Only for those who answered "better") Why? Pick as many
reasons as you like from among those listed below.
Because politicians are leading bureaucrats 19.2
Because the prime minister is displaying leadership 48.0
Because specific government offices and lawmakers close to
specific industries are now less influential than before
28.4
Because LDP factions are less influential now 31.9
Because closed-door politics is gone and politics is now more
transparent 23.2
Because the Koizumi cabinet has addressed issues foregone by its
predecessors 27.9
Because public opinion is now easily reflected in politics
17.0
Because there was a generational change in lawmakers 18.9
O/A+N/A 3.2
Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi could change the LDP's
political approach and nature?
Yes 19.6
Yes to a certain degree 42.3
No to a certain degree 18.8
No 14.9
N/A 4.5
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi called reform opponents in the LDP and
relevant organizations "antireformers" and fielded candidates
called "assassins" in last year's election for the House of
Representatives to square off with them. Do you think such a way
of doing things was appropriate?
Yes 15.2
Yes to a certain degree 23.3
No to a certain degree 28.9
No 26.2
N/A 6.5
Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's political
approach and remarks over the past five years?
Appreciate very much 13.1
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Appreciate somewhat 49.4
Don't appreciate very much 23.9
Don't appreciate at all 9.2
N/A 4.4
Q: What do you think has made the Koizumi cabinet keep its
support rate higher than those for its predecessors? Pick only
one primary reason from among those listed below.
Prime Minister Koizumi has been displaying leadership 27.2
Prime Minister Koizumi's restructuring initiatives have been
supported 12.9
His cabinet's policy measures have made actual showings, such as
visible signs indicating economic recovery 11.4
Prime Minister Koizumi's appearances and hobbies give favorable
impressions 10.8
Prime Minister Koizumi is free from scandals over money or women
7.9
His cabinet is a coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito party
5.8
The prime minister is from the LDP 5.3
Prime Minister Koizumi cross words with foreign leaders as equals
on international occasions 3.7
Prime Minister Koizumi has visited Yasukuni Shrine 1.1
Q: How many hours on average do you watch television per weekday?
Less than 30 minutes 4.0
30 minutes-1 hour 12.1
1-2 hours 27.0
2-3 hours 29.1
Over 3 hours 26.7
Don't watch TV 0.9
N/A 0.2
Polling methodology
Date of survey: April 8-9.
Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all
eligible voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a
stratified two-stage random-sampling basis).
Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-
face interviews.
Number of valid respondents: 1,823 persons (60.8%)
Breakdown of respondents: Male-48%, female-52%; persons in
their 20s-10%, 30s-16%, 40s-17%, 50s-21%, 60s-21%, 70 and
over-15%; big cities (Tokyo's 23 wards and government-designated
cities)-21%, major cities (with a population of more than
300,000)-19%, medium-size cities (with a population of more than
100,000)-24%, small cities (with a population of less than
100,000)-22%, towns and villages-14%.
(2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary
of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK
will surely go from bad to worse
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
May 8, 2006
06
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has begun to examine what
specific impact would result if he should visit Yasukuni Shrine
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on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary of the end of World War II
(WWII), according to one of his aides. "The prime minister has a
strong desire to pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine this year on the
anniversary of WW II, for this is his last year in office," the
same source said. Koizumi is likely to make a decision on the
timing of a shrine visit after considering from various angles
how China and South Korea might react, as well as the likely
fallout on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential
race set for September.
LDP lawmaker Taku Yamasaki has speculated that the "most likely
date for the prime minister to visit Yasukuni Shrine would be
Aug. 15." The possibility that Koizumi is seriously considering
visiting the shrine on that day is certain to pour more icy water
over relations with China and South Korea.
During his LDP presidential campaign in 2001, Koizumi pledged, "I
will pay homage at the shrine on the anniversary of the end of
the war." But that year, he visited the shrine on Aug. 13,
moving up the timing by two days. Since then he either went on
New Year's day or on the shrine's spring or autumn festivals. The
same source said, "The prime minister regretted moving up the
date in 2001."
Recently Koizumi has avoided mentioning a specific date for a
shrine visit, only stating, "I will make a proper decision" on
when to visit the shrine.
(3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on
effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines
unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full)
May 9, 2006
In the wake of the production of the final report on the
realignment of US forces in Japan, the Okinawa Times asked US
Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich about its impact on
Okinawa and other factors.
Okinawa Times: At present, there are about 12,000 US Marines in
Okinawa. Of them, 8,000 will be relocated, leaving 4,000 in
Okinawa. Is that correct?
Reich: Some 9,000 family members will also be relocated. I cannot
say exactly how many US Marines will remain in Okinawa. The
number of US troops in Okinawa changes all the time as they are
constantly on the move, making it difficult to grasp the correct
number.
Okinawa Times: What can you tell us about the return of the six
bases south of Kadena Air Base and the integration of bases?
Reich: Things will be determined specifically by next March, and
realignment and consolidation will progress. If the six
facilities have any functions that must absolutely stay here,
they must be relocated elsewhere in the prefecture. Nothing has
been determined about their relocations.
Okinawa Times: When are you going to return the six bases?
Reich: We are hoping to return them by 2014. They will bring
tremendous changes to Okinawa in the next eight years. The six
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bases will be returned in stages rather than at once.
Okinawa Times: Is the package argument still valid even if the
Futenma relocation is delayed and only the facilities in Guam are
completed?
Reich: The United States and Japan basically want to realize the
two projects as a package. Many Okinawa residents are supportive
of the relocation, and we believe that the Japanese government
will realize it. There won't be any obstacles to the package
approach.
Okinawa Times: What kind of aircraft is the United States going
to deploy at the alternative facility for Futenma? Is there any
possibility of using aerial refueling planes and deploying
Ospreys?
Reich: The road map (in the final report) doesn't specify any
models. No aerial refueling planes are stationed in Okinawa. I
don't know if they will use the new facility. It is a fact that
the United States is planning to replace CH-53s with Ospreys in
the future. There has been no formal announcement on when they
will be deployed to Okinawa.
Okinawa Times: With the two-runway plan, will US aircraft be able
to avoid flying over residential areas? Will they conduct touch-
and-go drills?
Reich: The two runways in a V shape will be different from the
one at Futenma Air Station, and I don't know if they will conduct
touch-and-go drills. The United States and Japan have been
studying specific flight paths at the working level. All I can
say is that we will respect the wishes of Okinawa residents.
Okinawa Times: Will helicopters continue their drills at Futenma
until the alternative facility is completed?
Reich: They will continue using Futenma Air Station until the new
facility is constructed. Splitting Futenma functions among
multiple locations before the completion of the alternative
facility is inconceivable.
Okinawa Times: What's your take on Okinawa's temporary heliport
plan?
Reich: I am aware through media reports that Gov. Keiichi Inamine
made such a proposal, which is different from the plan agreed
upon by the governments of the United States and Japan. Basically
I don't think there is any big difference from the agreed plan.
Okinawa Times: Are the bases besides Camp Hansen and Kadena Air
Base also going to expand the range of joint use with the Self-
Defense Forces?
Reich: I don't want to say 'no' to that question. We cannot rule
out expansion. But at present, Kadena and Hansen are the only
ones subject to expansion.
Okinawa Times: If joint use with the SDF can help maintain
deterrence, there won't be any need in the future to station US
Marines in Okinawa, will there?
Reich: It's an awfully interesting question. We'll get the answer
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in the future. I think it's good for the SDF to work jointly with
the US military in terms of enhancing deterrence. It's also
conceivable for the Ground Self-Defense Force to replace US
Marines. I think this is possible in the future.
(Interviewed by Tsuyoshi Watanabe of the political news
department)
(4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to
be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch
SANKEI (Page