Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO2500
2006-05-09 08:24:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/09/06

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7988
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #2500/01 1290824
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090824Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1774
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8696
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 6071
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9268
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 6040
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 7238
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2127
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8309
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0141
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 002500 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/09/06

INDEX:

(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance

(2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary
of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK
will surely go from bad to worse

(3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on
effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines
unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages

(4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to
be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch

(5) Kakushin (Heart of matter) column by Yasuhiro Tase: Since
Japan appears to have forgotten its diplomatic strategy toward
neighboring nations, how then will it live in Asia?

(6) In voting conducted by civic group on Constitution, many
youths in Shibuya support Article 9

(7) Strategic distribution of ODA funds; Overseas Economic
Cooperation Council holds first meeting; Consideration also to be
given to environment area

ARTICLES:

(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance

YOMIURI (Page 15) (Abridged)
April 25, 2006

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage.)

Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has been in office for nearly five
years. What's your overall rating for the performance of Prime
Minister Koizumi and his cabinet over the past five years?

Appreciate very much 17.3
Appreciate somewhat 53.1
Don't appreciate very much 18.4
Don't appreciate at all 9.4
No answer (N/A) 1.8

Q: What do you think the Koizumi cabinet has accomplished in
particular over the past five years? Pick as many as you like
from among those listed below.

Postal privatization 44.3
Highway privatization 25.0
North Korea problem 24.8
Bad-loan write-off 15.5
Economic, employment measures 15.3
Decentralization 7.4
Deregulation 8.4
Fiscal reconstruction 5.9
Iraq problem 5.9
Food safety 4.1
Tax reform 2.9
Social security reform 2.0

TOKYO 00002500 002 OF 013


Emergency legislation, crisis management 1.9
US military base issues 1.9
Educational reform 1.8
Public security, crime prevention 1.5
Constitutional issues 1.0
Other answers (O/A) + nothing in particular (NIP) + no answer
(N/A) 21.1

Q: The Koizumi cabinet has written off bad loans and advanced
deregulation. Do you think the Japanese economy is changing for
the better with these structural reforms?

Yes 15.5
Yes to a certain degree 39.2
No to a certain degree 22.3
No 17.8
N/A 5.3

Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, business
corporations are now competing for better services and lower
prices, and the people will be better off." Do you agree to this
opinion?

Yes 13.2
Yes to a certain degree 27.8
No to a certain degree 27.2
No 26.9
N/A 5.0

Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, the
nation's social divide is widening." Do you agree to this
opinion?

Yes 33.6
Yes to a certain degree 25.4
No to a certain degree 20.1
No 14.9
N/A 6.0

Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") What do you think is that?
Pick as many as you like from among those listed below.

Disparity in income, assets 61.2
Intergenerational disparity in social security, including
pensions 46.5
Disparity between big and small businesses 45.1
Disparity between full- and part-time wages 37.9
Disparity between urban and local districts 37.9
Disparity between those who can receive higher education and
those who cannot 19.7
Disparity in opportunities to turn on individual skills at work
9.4
Disparity in opportunities to try again after failing 8.1
O/A+N/A 1.0

Q: Some say recent scandals-such as an architect's falsification
of earthquake resistance data on buildings and Livedoor Co.'s
illegal trading in securities-have something to do with the
reported deterioration of corporate ethics and morals. Do you
agree to this opinion?

Yes 11.4
Yes to a certain degree 15.0

TOKYO 00002500 003 OF 013


No to a certain degree 20.8
No 49.3
N/A 3.6

Q: What's your overall rating for the Koizumi cabinet's
structural reforms on the whole?

Plus 16.6
Plus to a certain extent 43.7
Minus to a certain extent 20.2
Minus 9.7
N/A 9.8

Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's policy measures
at home over the past five years?

Appreciate very much 14.1
Appreciate somewhat 52.8
Don't appreciate very much 21.9
Don't appreciate at all 8.0
N/A 3.2

Q: Do you think Japan-US relations have improved over the past
five years, or do you otherwise think Japan-US relations have
worsened?

Improved 19.0
Improved to a certain extent 43.9
Worsened to a certain extent 17.4
Worsened 4.9
N/A 14.8

Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's deployment of
Self-Defense Forces members to Iraq for humanitarian
reconstruction assistance?

Appreciate very much 13.5
Appreciate somewhat 37.8
Don't appreciate very much 26.7
Don't appreciate at all 18.4
N/A 3.6

Q: (Only for those who answered "appreciate") Why? Pick as many
reasons as you like from among those listed below.

Because SDF activities are appreciated by Iraqi people
20.7
Because SDF activities are limited to humanitarian reconstruction
only 50.4
Because Japan could play its role to a certain extent in the
international community 60.1
Because Japan could strengthen its alliance with the US
15.0
O/A 1.0
N/A 1.4

Q: (Only for those who answered "don't appreciate") Why? Pick as
many reasons as you like from among those listed below.

Because SDF activities are not appreciated by Iraqi people
25.4
Because SDF members may be involved in a battle
42.8

TOKYO 00002500 004 OF 013


Because I'm against the SDF's overseas dispatch
32.6
Because Prime Minister Koizumi is at America's beck and call
59.1
O/A 2.4
N/A 0.6

Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's two visits to
North Korea in September 2002 and May 2004 and his meetings with
Kim Jong Il?

Appreciate very much 37.5
Appreciate somewhat 43.4
Don't appreciate very much 11.5
Don't appreciate at all 5.2
N/A 2.5

Q: What do you think should be addressed on a priority basis over
North Korea issues? Pick as many as you like from among those
listed below.

Stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons 61.6
Stop North Korea from developing missiles 44.7
Resolve the problem of Japanese abductees 81.7
Normalize diplomatic relations 21.7
Extend economic cooperation to North Korea 5.3
Impose economic sanctions on North Korea 26.3
Urge North Korea to change its political and economic systems
16.0
O/A+NIP 1.4
N/A 0.9

Q: Prime Minister Koizumi pledged to visit Yasukuni Shrine when
he ran in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential
election in 2001, and he has annually visited there. Are you in
favor of his visit to the shrine?

Yes 28.2
Yes to a certain degree 25.9
No to a certain degree 19.3
No 20.6
N/A 6.0

Q: Against the backdrop of China's denunciation of Prime Minister
Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the leaders of Japan and
China have made no mutual visits since October 2001. What do you
think about the present state of Japan-China relations?

Very serious 52.9
Somewhat serious 39.3
Not very serious 19.7
Not serious at all 5.3
N/A 2.9

Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi is to blame for the
present state of Japan-China relations?

Very much 21.4
Somewhat 39.3
Not very much 21.6
Not at all 14.1
N/A 3.6


TOKYO 00002500 005 OF 013


Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's diplomacy over
the past five years?

Appreciate very much 11.6
Appreciate somewhat 47.1
Don't appreciate very much 27.5
Don't appreciate at all 10.1
N/A 3.7


Q: Do you think Japanese politics has changed for the better over
the past five years, or do you otherwise think it has changed for
the worse?

Better 12.5
Better to a certain degree 43.1
Worse to a certain degree 24.4
Worse 7.9
N/A 12.2

Q: (Only for those who answered "better") Why? Pick as many
reasons as you like from among those listed below.

Because politicians are leading bureaucrats 19.2
Because the prime minister is displaying leadership 48.0
Because specific government offices and lawmakers close to
specific industries are now less influential than before
28.4
Because LDP factions are less influential now 31.9
Because closed-door politics is gone and politics is now more
transparent 23.2
Because the Koizumi cabinet has addressed issues foregone by its
predecessors 27.9
Because public opinion is now easily reflected in politics
17.0
Because there was a generational change in lawmakers 18.9
O/A+N/A 3.2

Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi could change the LDP's
political approach and nature?

Yes 19.6
Yes to a certain degree 42.3
No to a certain degree 18.8
No 14.9
N/A 4.5

Q: Prime Minister Koizumi called reform opponents in the LDP and
relevant organizations "antireformers" and fielded candidates
called "assassins" in last year's election for the House of
Representatives to square off with them. Do you think such a way
of doing things was appropriate?

Yes 15.2
Yes to a certain degree 23.3
No to a certain degree 28.9
No 26.2
N/A 6.5

Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's political
approach and remarks over the past five years?

Appreciate very much 13.1

TOKYO 00002500 006 OF 013


Appreciate somewhat 49.4
Don't appreciate very much 23.9
Don't appreciate at all 9.2
N/A 4.4

Q: What do you think has made the Koizumi cabinet keep its
support rate higher than those for its predecessors? Pick only
one primary reason from among those listed below.

Prime Minister Koizumi has been displaying leadership 27.2
Prime Minister Koizumi's restructuring initiatives have been
supported 12.9
His cabinet's policy measures have made actual showings, such as
visible signs indicating economic recovery 11.4
Prime Minister Koizumi's appearances and hobbies give favorable
impressions 10.8
Prime Minister Koizumi is free from scandals over money or women
7.9
His cabinet is a coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito party
5.8
The prime minister is from the LDP 5.3
Prime Minister Koizumi cross words with foreign leaders as equals
on international occasions 3.7
Prime Minister Koizumi has visited Yasukuni Shrine 1.1

Q: How many hours on average do you watch television per weekday?

Less than 30 minutes 4.0
30 minutes-1 hour 12.1
1-2 hours 27.0
2-3 hours 29.1
Over 3 hours 26.7
Don't watch TV 0.9
N/A 0.2

Polling methodology
Date of survey: April 8-9.
Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all
eligible voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a
stratified two-stage random-sampling basis).
Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-
face interviews.
Number of valid respondents: 1,823 persons (60.8%)
Breakdown of respondents: Male-48%, female-52%; persons in
their 20s-10%, 30s-16%, 40s-17%, 50s-21%, 60s-21%, 70 and
over-15%; big cities (Tokyo's 23 wards and government-designated
cities)-21%, major cities (with a population of more than
300,000)-19%, medium-size cities (with a population of more than
100,000)-24%, small cities (with a population of less than
100,000)-22%, towns and villages-14%.

(2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary
of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK
will surely go from bad to worse

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
May 8, 2006

06

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has begun to examine what
specific impact would result if he should visit Yasukuni Shrine

TOKYO 00002500 007 OF 013


on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary of the end of World War II
(WWII),according to one of his aides. "The prime minister has a
strong desire to pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine this year on the
anniversary of WW II, for this is his last year in office," the
same source said. Koizumi is likely to make a decision on the
timing of a shrine visit after considering from various angles
how China and South Korea might react, as well as the likely
fallout on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential
race set for September.

LDP lawmaker Taku Yamasaki has speculated that the "most likely
date for the prime minister to visit Yasukuni Shrine would be
Aug. 15." The possibility that Koizumi is seriously considering
visiting the shrine on that day is certain to pour more icy water
over relations with China and South Korea.

During his LDP presidential campaign in 2001, Koizumi pledged, "I
will pay homage at the shrine on the anniversary of the end of
the war." But that year, he visited the shrine on Aug. 13,
moving up the timing by two days. Since then he either went on
New Year's day or on the shrine's spring or autumn festivals. The
same source said, "The prime minister regretted moving up the
date in 2001."

Recently Koizumi has avoided mentioning a specific date for a
shrine visit, only stating, "I will make a proper decision" on
when to visit the shrine.

(3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on
effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines
unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages

OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full)
May 9, 2006

In the wake of the production of the final report on the
realignment of US forces in Japan, the Okinawa Times asked US
Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich about its impact on
Okinawa and other factors.

Okinawa Times: At present, there are about 12,000 US Marines in
Okinawa. Of them, 8,000 will be relocated, leaving 4,000 in
Okinawa. Is that correct?

Reich: Some 9,000 family members will also be relocated. I cannot
say exactly how many US Marines will remain in Okinawa. The
number of US troops in Okinawa changes all the time as they are
constantly on the move, making it difficult to grasp the correct
number.

Okinawa Times: What can you tell us about the return of the six
bases south of Kadena Air Base and the integration of bases?

Reich: Things will be determined specifically by next March, and
realignment and consolidation will progress. If the six
facilities have any functions that must absolutely stay here,
they must be relocated elsewhere in the prefecture. Nothing has
been determined about their relocations.

Okinawa Times: When are you going to return the six bases?

Reich: We are hoping to return them by 2014. They will bring
tremendous changes to Okinawa in the next eight years. The six

TOKYO 00002500 008 OF 013


bases will be returned in stages rather than at once.

Okinawa Times: Is the package argument still valid even if the
Futenma relocation is delayed and only the facilities in Guam are
completed?

Reich: The United States and Japan basically want to realize the
two projects as a package. Many Okinawa residents are supportive
of the relocation, and we believe that the Japanese government
will realize it. There won't be any obstacles to the package
approach.

Okinawa Times: What kind of aircraft is the United States going
to deploy at the alternative facility for Futenma? Is there any
possibility of using aerial refueling planes and deploying
Ospreys?

Reich: The road map (in the final report) doesn't specify any
models. No aerial refueling planes are stationed in Okinawa. I
don't know if they will use the new facility. It is a fact that
the United States is planning to replace CH-53s with Ospreys in
the future. There has been no formal announcement on when they
will be deployed to Okinawa.

Okinawa Times: With the two-runway plan, will US aircraft be able
to avoid flying over residential areas? Will they conduct touch-
and-go drills?

Reich: The two runways in a V shape will be different from the
one at Futenma Air Station, and I don't know if they will conduct
touch-and-go drills. The United States and Japan have been
studying specific flight paths at the working level. All I can
say is that we will respect the wishes of Okinawa residents.

Okinawa Times: Will helicopters continue their drills at Futenma
until the alternative facility is completed?

Reich: They will continue using Futenma Air Station until the new
facility is constructed. Splitting Futenma functions among
multiple locations before the completion of the alternative
facility is inconceivable.

Okinawa Times: What's your take on Okinawa's temporary heliport
plan?

Reich: I am aware through media reports that Gov. Keiichi Inamine
made such a proposal, which is different from the plan agreed
upon by the governments of the United States and Japan. Basically
I don't think there is any big difference from the agreed plan.

Okinawa Times: Are the bases besides Camp Hansen and Kadena Air
Base also going to expand the range of joint use with the Self-
Defense Forces?

Reich: I don't want to say 'no' to that question. We cannot rule
out expansion. But at present, Kadena and Hansen are the only
ones subject to expansion.

Okinawa Times: If joint use with the SDF can help maintain
deterrence, there won't be any need in the future to station US
Marines in Okinawa, will there?

Reich: It's an awfully interesting question. We'll get the answer

TOKYO 00002500 009 OF 013


in the future. I think it's good for the SDF to work jointly with
the US military in terms of enhancing deterrence. It's also
conceivable for the Ground Self-Defense Force to replace US
Marines. I think this is possible in the future.

(Interviewed by Tsuyoshi Watanabe of the political news
department)

(4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to
be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch

SANKEI (Page
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 002500 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/09/06 INDEX: (1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance (2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK will surely go from bad to worse (3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages (4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch (5) Kakushin (Heart of matter) column by Yasuhiro Tase: Since Japan appears to have forgotten its diplomatic strategy toward neighboring nations, how then will it live in Asia? (6) In voting conducted by civic group on Constitution, many youths in Shibuya support Article 9 (7) Strategic distribution of ODA funds; Overseas Economic Cooperation Council holds first meeting; Consideration also to be given to environment area ARTICLES: (1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet's performance YOMIURI (Page 15) (Abridged) April 25, 2006 Questions & Answers (Figures shown in percentage.) Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has been in office for nearly five years. What's your overall rating for the performance of Prime Minister Koizumi and his cabinet over the past five years? Appreciate very much 17.3 Appreciate somewhat 53.1 Don't appreciate very much 18.4 Don't appreciate at all 9.4 No answer (N/A) 1.8 Q: What do you think the Koizumi cabinet has accomplished in particular over the past five years? Pick as many as you like from among those listed below. Postal privatization 44.3 Highway privatization 25.0 North Korea problem 24.8 Bad-loan write-off 15.5 �
00A;Economic, employment measures 15.3 Decentralization 7.4 Deregulation 8.4 Fiscal reconstruction 5.9 Iraq problem 5.9 Food safety 4.1 Tax reform 2.9 Social security reform 2.0 TOKYO 00002500 002 OF 013 Emergency legislation, crisis management 1.9 US military base issues 1.9 Educational reform 1.8 Public security, crime prevention 1.5 Constitutional issues 1.0 Other answers (O/A) + nothing in particular (NIP) + no answer (N/A) 21.1 Q: The Koizumi cabinet has written off bad loans and advanced deregulation. Do you think the Japanese economy is changing for the better with these structural reforms? Yes 15.5 Yes to a certain degree 39.2 No to a certain degree 22.3 No 17.8 N/A 5.3 Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, business corporations are now competing for better services and lower prices, and the people will be better off." Do you agree to this opinion? Yes 13.2 Yes to a certain degree 27.8 No to a certain degree 27.2 No 26.9 N/A 5.0 Q: "As a result of the Koizumi cabinet's deregulation, the nation's social divide is widening." Do you agree to this opinion? Yes 33.6 Yes to a certain degree 25.4 No to a certain degree 20.1 No 14.9 N/A 6.0 Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") What do you think is that? Pick as many as you like from among those listed below. Disparity in income, assets 61.2 Intergenerational disparity in social security, including pensions 46.5 Disparity between big and small businesses 45.1 Disparity between full- and part-time wages 37.9 Disparity between urban and local districts 37.9 Disparity between those who can receive higher education and those who cannot 19.7 Disparity in opportunities to turn on individual skills at work 9.4 Disparity in opportunities to try again after failing 8.1 O/A+N/A 1.0 Q: Some say recent scandals-such as an architect's falsification of earthquake resistance data on buildings and Livedoor Co.'s illegal trading in securities-have something to do with the reported deterioration of corporate ethics and morals. Do you agree to this opinion? Yes 11.4 Yes to a certain degree 15.0 TOKYO 00002500 003 OF 013 No to a certain degree 20.8 No 49.3 N/A 3.6 Q: What's your overall rating for the Koizumi cabinet's structural reforms on the whole? Plus 16.6 Plus to a certain extent 43.7 Minus to a certain extent 20.2 Minus 9.7 N/A 9.8 Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's policy measures at home over the past five years? Appreciate very much 14.1 Appreciate somewhat 52.8 Don't appreciate very much 21.9 Don't appreciate at all 8.0 N/A 3.2 Q: Do you think Japan-US relations have improved over the past five years, or do you otherwise think Japan-US relations have worsened? Improved 19.0 Improved to a certain extent 43.9 Worsened to a certain extent 17.4 Worsened 4.9 N/A 14.8 Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's deployment of Self-Defense Forces members to Iraq for humanitarian reconstruction assistance? Appreciate very much 13.5 Appreciate somewhat 37.8 Don't appreciate very much 26.7 Don't appreciate at all 18.4 N/A 3.6 Q: (Only for those who answered "appreciate") Why? Pick as many reasons as you like from among those listed below. Because SDF activities are appreciated by Iraqi people 20.7 Because SDF activities are limited to humanitarian reconstruction only 50.4 Because Japan could play its role to a certain extent in the international community 60.1 Because Japan could strengthen its alliance with the US 15.0 O/A 1.0 N/A 1.4 Q: (Only for those who answered "don't appreciate") Why? Pick as many reasons as you like from among those listed below. Because SDF activities are not appreciated by Iraqi people 25.4 Because SDF members may be involved in a battle 42.8 TOKYO 00002500 004 OF 013 Because I'm against the SDF's overseas dispatch 32.6 Because Prime Minister Koizumi is at America's beck and call 59.1 O/A 2.4 N/A 0.6 Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's two visits to North Korea in September 2002 and May 2004 and his meetings with Kim Jong Il? Appreciate very much 37.5 Appreciate somewhat 43.4 Don't appreciate very much 11.5 Don't appreciate at all 5.2 N/A 2.5 Q: What do you think should be addressed on a priority basis over North Korea issues? Pick as many as you like from among those listed below. Stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons 61.6 Stop North Korea from developing missiles 44.7 Resolve the problem of Japanese abductees 81.7 Normalize diplomatic relations 21.7 Extend economic cooperation to North Korea 5.3 Impose economic sanctions on North Korea 26.3 Urge North Korea to change its political and economic systems 16.0 O/A+NIP 1.4 N/A 0.9 Q: Prime Minister Koizumi pledged to visit Yasukuni Shrine when he ran in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election in 2001, and he has annually visited there. Are you in favor of his visit to the shrine? Yes 28.2 Yes to a certain degree 25.9 No to a certain degree 19.3 No 20.6 N/A 6.0 Q: Against the backdrop of China's denunciation of Prime Minister Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the leaders of Japan and China have made no mutual visits since October 2001. What do you think about the present state of Japan-China relations? Very serious 52.9 Somewhat serious 39.3 Not very serious 19.7 Not serious at all 5.3 N/A 2.9 Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi is to blame for the present state of Japan-China relations? Very much 21.4 Somewhat 39.3 Not very much 21.6 Not at all 14.1 N/A 3.6 TOKYO 00002500 005 OF 013 Q: What's your rating for the Koizumi cabinet's diplomacy over the past five years? Appreciate very much 11.6 Appreciate somewhat 47.1 Don't appreciate very much 27.5 Don't appreciate at all 10.1 N/A 3.7 Q: Do you think Japanese politics has changed for the better over the past five years, or do you otherwise think it has changed for the worse? Better 12.5 Better to a certain degree 43.1 Worse to a certain degree 24.4 Worse 7.9 N/A 12.2 Q: (Only for those who answered "better") Why? Pick as many reasons as you like from among those listed below. Because politicians are leading bureaucrats 19.2 Because the prime minister is displaying leadership 48.0 Because specific government offices and lawmakers close to specific industries are now less influential than before 28.4 Because LDP factions are less influential now 31.9 Because closed-door politics is gone and politics is now more transparent 23.2 Because the Koizumi cabinet has addressed issues foregone by its predecessors 27.9 Because public opinion is now easily reflected in politics 17.0 Because there was a generational change in lawmakers 18.9 O/A+N/A 3.2 Q: Do you think Prime Minister Koizumi could change the LDP's political approach and nature? Yes 19.6 Yes to a certain degree 42.3 No to a certain degree 18.8 No 14.9 N/A 4.5 Q: Prime Minister Koizumi called reform opponents in the LDP and relevant organizations "antireformers" and fielded candidates called "assassins" in last year's election for the House of Representatives to square off with them. Do you think such a way of doing things was appropriate? Yes 15.2 Yes to a certain degree 23.3 No to a certain degree 28.9 No 26.2 N/A 6.5 Q: What's your rating for Prime Minister Koizumi's political approach and remarks over the past five years? Appreciate very much 13.1 TOKYO 00002500 006 OF 013 Appreciate somewhat 49.4 Don't appreciate very much 23.9 Don't appreciate at all 9.2 N/A 4.4 Q: What do you think has made the Koizumi cabinet keep its support rate higher than those for its predecessors? Pick only one primary reason from among those listed below. Prime Minister Koizumi has been displaying leadership 27.2 Prime Minister Koizumi's restructuring initiatives have been supported 12.9 His cabinet's policy measures have made actual showings, such as visible signs indicating economic recovery 11.4 Prime Minister Koizumi's appearances and hobbies give favorable impressions 10.8 Prime Minister Koizumi is free from scandals over money or women 7.9 His cabinet is a coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito party 5.8 The prime minister is from the LDP 5.3 Prime Minister Koizumi cross words with foreign leaders as equals on international occasions 3.7 Prime Minister Koizumi has visited Yasukuni Shrine 1.1 Q: How many hours on average do you watch television per weekday? Less than 30 minutes 4.0 30 minutes-1 hour 12.1 1-2 hours 27.0 2-3 hours 29.1 Over 3 hours 26.7 Don't watch TV 0.9 N/A 0.2 Polling methodology Date of survey: April 8-9. Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all eligible voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a stratified two-stage random-sampling basis). Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to- face interviews. Number of valid respondents: 1,823 persons (60.8%) Breakdown of respondents: Male-48%, female-52%; persons in their 20s-10%, 30s-16%, 40s-17%, 50s-21%, 60s-21%, 70 and over-15%; big cities (Tokyo's 23 wards and government-designated cities)-21%, major cities (with a population of more than 300,000)-19%, medium-size cities (with a population of more than 100,000)-24%, small cities (with a population of less than 100,000)-22%, towns and villages-14%. (2) Prime Minister Koizumi giving serious consideration to paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary of the end of WWII; If he visits, relations with China and ROK will surely go from bad to worse NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) May 8, 2006 06 Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has begun to examine what specific impact would result if he should visit Yasukuni Shrine TOKYO 00002500 007 OF 013 on Aug. 15, the day of the anniversary of the end of World War II (WWII),according to one of his aides. "The prime minister has a strong desire to pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine this year on the anniversary of WW II, for this is his last year in office," the same source said. Koizumi is likely to make a decision on the timing of a shrine visit after considering from various angles how China and South Korea might react, as well as the likely fallout on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential race set for September. LDP lawmaker Taku Yamasaki has speculated that the "most likely date for the prime minister to visit Yasukuni Shrine would be Aug. 15." The possibility that Koizumi is seriously considering visiting the shrine on that day is certain to pour more icy water over relations with China and South Korea. During his LDP presidential campaign in 2001, Koizumi pledged, "I will pay homage at the shrine on the anniversary of the end of the war." But that year, he visited the shrine on Aug. 13, moving up the timing by two days. Since then he either went on New Year's day or on the shrine's spring or autumn festivals. The same source said, "The prime minister regretted moving up the date in 2001." Recently Koizumi has avoided mentioning a specific date for a shrine visit, only stating, "I will make a proper decision" on when to visit the shrine. (3) Interview with US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich on effect of US force realignment on Okinawa: Number of US Marines unclear; Six bases will be returned in stages OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) May 9, 2006 In the wake of the production of the final report on the realignment of US forces in Japan, the Okinawa Times asked US Consul General for Okinawa Thomas Reich about its impact on Okinawa and other factors. Okinawa Times: At present, there are about 12,000 US Marines in Okinawa. Of them, 8,000 will be relocated, leaving 4,000 in Okinawa. Is that correct? Reich: Some 9,000 family members will also be relocated. I cannot say exactly how many US Marines will remain in Okinawa. The number of US troops in Okinawa changes all the time as they are constantly on the move, making it difficult to grasp the correct number. Okinawa Times: What can you tell us about the return of the six bases south of Kadena Air Base and the integration of bases? Reich: Things will be determined specifically by next March, and realignment and consolidation will progress. If the six facilities have any functions that must absolutely stay here, they must be relocated elsewhere in the prefecture. Nothing has been determined about their relocations. Okinawa Times: When are you going to return the six bases? Reich: We are hoping to return them by 2014. They will bring tremendous changes to Okinawa in the next eight years. The six TOKYO 00002500 008 OF 013 bases will be returned in stages rather than at once. Okinawa Times: Is the package argument still valid even if the Futenma relocation is delayed and only the facilities in Guam are completed? Reich: The United States and Japan basically want to realize the two projects as a package. Many Okinawa residents are supportive of the relocation, and we believe that the Japanese government will realize it. There won't be any obstacles to the package approach. Okinawa Times: What kind of aircraft is the United States going to deploy at the alternative facility for Futenma? Is there any possibility of using aerial refueling planes and deploying Ospreys? Reich: The road map (in the final report) doesn't specify any models. No aerial refueling planes are stationed in Okinawa. I don't know if they will use the new facility. It is a fact that the United States is planning to replace CH-53s with Ospreys in the future. There has been no formal announcement on when they will be deployed to Okinawa. Okinawa Times: With the two-runway plan, will US aircraft be able to avoid flying over residential areas? Will they conduct touch- and-go drills? Reich: The two runways in a V shape will be different from the one at Futenma Air Station, and I don't know if they will conduct touch-and-go drills. The United States and Japan have been studying specific flight paths at the working level. All I can say is that we will respect the wishes of Okinawa residents. Okinawa Times: Will helicopters continue their drills at Futenma until the alternative facility is completed? Reich: They will continue using Futenma Air Station until the new facility is constructed. Splitting Futenma functions among multiple locations before the completion of the alternative facility is inconceivable. Okinawa Times: What's your take on Okinawa's temporary heliport plan? Reich: I am aware through media reports that Gov. Keiichi Inamine made such a proposal, which is different from the plan agreed upon by the governments of the United States and Japan. Basically I don't think there is any big difference from the agreed plan. Okinawa Times: Are the bases besides Camp Hansen and Kadena Air Base also going to expand the range of joint use with the Self- Defense Forces? Reich: I don't want to say 'no' to that question. We cannot rule out expansion. But at present, Kadena and Hansen are the only ones subject to expansion. Okinawa Times: If joint use with the SDF can help maintain deterrence, there won't be any need in the future to station US Marines in Okinawa, will there? Reich: It's an awfully interesting question. We'll get the answer TOKYO 00002500 009 OF 013 in the future. I think it's good for the SDF to work jointly with the US military in terms of enhancing deterrence. It's also conceivable for the Ground Self-Defense Force to replace US Marines. I think this is possible in the future. (Interviewed by Tsuyoshi Watanabe of the political news department) (4) ASDF realignment plan; Air Defense Command's Headquarters to be strengthened; Control over MD system; 24-hour-a-day watch SANKEI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged) May 8, 2006 The Defense Agency (JDA) has been looking into a plan to realign the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF). The entire details of the plan were unveiled yesterday. The showcase of the package is to substantially reinforce the command-and-control capability of the Air Defense Command's Headquarters (ADCH),which is to be operated jointly with the US Air Force at US Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, after USFJ realignment. The ADCH will also ensure that a missile defense system to be operated jointly by Japan and the US function effectively. With the integration of the ASDF's command- and-control system into the ADCH in mind, four Air Defense Forces and Composite Air Divisions deployed throughout the nation will also be either integrated or abolished. According to the plan incorporated in the final report, the ADCH, located in Fuchu, Tokyo, will be relocated to Yokota Air Base in 2010 to be integrated into a new joint operations coordination center along with the US 5th Air Force Headquarters. The new organization will serve as a key vehicle to maintain deterrence, allowing the two countries to share intelligence on air defense and the missile defense system designed to intercept ballistic missiles. The ADCH will also command the Self-Defense Forces' joint task forces. It will collect radar information from the SDF and the US military and operate the ASDF's ground-to-air missiles and Patriot missiles (PAC3) and standard missiles loaded on the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Aegis ships jointly. Though there is a potential danger of North Korea launching a ballistic missile without warning, the ADCH is currently not on 24-hour-a-day alert. For this reason, the 200-strong ADCH will be substantively expanded so as to shift to a 24-hour-a-day alert system. The integration or abolition of four Air Defense Forces and Composite Air Divisions is also part of the move to strengthen the functions of the ADCH. There are two plans: one is to integrate them into two forces, by drawing a demarcation line in the center of the archipelago or leaving three forces, by eliminating the borderline between Kyushu and Okinawa. This means a shift to a central control of operations by the ADCH, by reducing "vertically divided" operations based on the present defense force division system, as a senior JDA official put it. Chinese aircraft are actively flying over oil and gas fields in the East China Sea, increasing concern about a possible invasion of an isolated island there. The new system will enable to concentrate fighting strength in this region. The 5th Air Force Headquarters controls US combat troops at TOKYO 00002500 010 OF 013 Misawa, Aomori Prefecture and Kadena, Okinawa Prefecture. The same senior JDA official noted, "Yokota Air Base can serve as a center for bilateral air operations only after the ADCH comes under the unified command system." The ASDF's organizational change can be characterized as the first step in the JSDF's transformation in the run-up to joint operations between Japan and the US. (5) Kakushin (Heart of matter) column by Yasuhiro Tase: Since Japan appears to have forgotten its diplomatic strategy toward neighboring nations, how then will it live in Asia? NIHON KEIZAI (Page 5) (Almost full) May 8, 2006 By Yasuhiro Tase, guest columnist, who is now professor at the Graduate School of Waseda University Imagine a schoolboy who does well at school but has no friends. During the lunch hour, the boy hangs from an exercise bar alone to kill time in a corner of the schoolyard. He murmurs there is nothing wrong with him and that his classmates are the ones who are to blame because they are unwilling to play with him. Japan appears isolated internationally, or rather I should say the government of Japan seems isolated from Asia. This isolation is viewed as an honorable status by Japanese nationalists, whose numbers are on the rise. My deep concern at present is that although many people recognize that Japan has become isolated, they assume a so-what attitude about it. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has insisted: "As long as the Japan-US alliance is firm and solid, Japan can get along with China and South Korea." But even the Japan-US alliance itself is somewhat shaky now. The summit relationship between President Bush and Prime Minister Koizumi remains in good shape, but when it comes to specific issues, for instance, the realignment of US forces in Japan, tangible discrepancies exist between the two nations. The Bush administration's initial hope was to see Japan become a leader to which the United States could entrust everything involving the Far East. If Japan were to play such a role, the US could focus its energies on the Middle East and other critical regions. But Japan has become a troublemaker instead of a troubleshooter. The Koizumi administration at first was not as stubborn or rigid (in its diplomacy) as it is now. In fact, it even set up a Foreign Relations Task Force as an advisory panel to the prime minister. The nine members of the task force, who included international relations expert Yukio Okamoto, delivered a report titled, "Basic Strategies for Japan's Foreign Policy in the 21st Century" in November 2002, in which they concluded, "For the future of Japanese diplomacy, Japan needs to lay out a clear national strategy, which Japan has lacked in the past." The panel suggested setting up a strategic council on foreign affairs as an advisory panel to offer foreign policy guidelines to the prime minister. But such a council has not been established to date, and the suggestion in the report has been forgotten entirely. There was also another earlier proposal that likewise sank into oblivion. It was "Japan's Goals in the 21st Century," written and submitted by the Commission on Japan's Goals in the 21st Century, chaired by Hayao Kawai (professor emeritus at Kyoto University) to Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. The report had a section titled, TOKYO 00002500 011 OF 013 "Japan's Place in the World," which contained words that Japan today seems to need most. The suggestion about relations with China and South Korea in the report is worth repeating: "Japan's relationships with South Korea and China are not so simple as to be just called diplomatic relations. Relations with these two countries should run deeper than mere diplomatic ties, yet they have yet to be developed with much depth. Japan needs to build a profound relationship with these two countries, since diplomatic efforts alone will not save the day, the issues being difficult to grasp. We call this sort of management of relations as 'good neighbor diplomacy.'" The height of diplomacy lies in having a moral supremacy: In other words, having a diplomacy and way of carrying it out that make other countries think that this country and its people are splendid beyond compare, Japan's diplomacy is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Japan says arrogantly that it is not to blame, but that the fault lies on the other side. What is bad is Japan's own domestic political strategy that ends up making Japan the bad guy. There is an argument that even if the prime minister stops visiting Yasukuni Shrine, relations with China and South Korea would not recover so quickly. That could be true. Some argue that Japan then would still face one difficult issue after another from the other side instead of Yasukuni. This, too, may well be true. However, nothing will be resolved if we continue to do nothing. Instead, distrust of Japan will spread across other Asian countries that are not much interested in the history and Yasukuni issues. After the end of the Cold War, the international order dramatically changed. What kind of country does Japan want to become? Who will guide Japan in its foreign policy and for what purposes? Japan lacks this sort of strategy. As a result, I have a sense of apprehension that Japan always decides its course expediently and without debate. Because of a lack of diplomatic strategy, Japan cannot send a good message to the rest of the world. A country that lacks such a strategy can never win the respect of other countries. Many in Japan agree that Japan's diplomacy is at an impasse, but politicians, regardless of whether they are members of the ruling or opposition parties, lack a sense of crisis. Needless to say, the general public, too, has little sense of crisis, as evidenced by the last Lower House election, in which diplomacy was not even a campaign issue. We must not allow the present abnormal situation to continue in which no summit talks with neighboring nations have been held due to (Yasukuni) an "issue of the heart." In order to solidify the Japan-US alliance, I think the first matter at hand is for Japan to have good relations with the countries in the East Asian region. How Japan will live in Asia is not a trifling issue at all, and it should not be simply made into one of the campaign issues for the presidential race of the Liberal Democratic Party this fall. It is a grand theme to determine the course of Japan over the next century. (6) In voting conducted by civic group on Constitution, many youths in Shibuya support Article 9 TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top Play) (Full) May 4, 2006 TOKYO 00002500 012 OF 013 Are you supportive of or opposed to a revision of Article 9 of the Constitution? Members of a civic group yesterday asked the above questions to young persons walking in streets in Shibuya, Tokyo, and other locations. The respondents picked a "yes" or "no" seal and put it on a board. Although most youngsters usually show little interest in politics, the survey found an overwhelming majority of respondents opposed to a revision of Article 9. Many voiced concern about politicians' recent active moves to amend the Constitution. 70% oppose revision Civic group members conducted the voting in a square in front of JR Shibuya Station, catching persons walking. A female part-timer, 20, chose the "opposition" seal without a moment's hesitation, saying: "Will this nation engage in warfare? In such a case, powerless persons will suffer most." A male student in the third year of high school in Tokyo, 17, picked the "opposition" seal and said: "It is outrageous for Japan to revise Article 9 and have a Self-Defense Force. Is our nation going to make the same mistake as it did in the past? It is us in the young generation who will be sent to battlefields." A music academy student, 19, from Nishi-Tokyo City chose the "support" seal, saying: "North Korea could attack Japan. It is necessary for Japan to build up its defense capability." A female college student, 20, in Tokyo also said: "If the Constitution is revised, the current stagnant situation may be changed. A male company employee, 20, from Chigasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture, said: "Politicians are not interested in young persons. They never ask for our views. It is desirable for us to express our views in this kind of voting." In about two hours of the voting in Shibuya, 72 persons voted for and 258 voted against the proposed revision of Article 9, with 39 respondents replying: "I don't know." In conducting this survey, Okayama University Professor Emeritus Ryuzaburo Noda and others set up a secretariat and appealed for volunteers on the Internet to help the voting in 33 prefectures for three days from April 29. The total number of votes was about 28,000. Of them, about 12% or about 3,300 voted for the revision of Article 9, while about 77% or about 21,600 voted against it. The remaining respondents replied: "I don't know." The results of the survey will be mailed to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, the House of Representatives speaker, and the House of Councillors president. (7) Strategic distribution of ODA funds; Overseas Economic Cooperation Council holds first meeting; Consideration also to be given to environment area YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) May 9, 2006 The government yesterday held the first meeting of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Council (chaired by Prime Minister Koizumi) at the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) with the aim TOKYO 00002500 013 OF 013 of strategically implementing official development assistance (ODA). It was agreed at the meeting that the propriety of extending ODA to major recipient countries and key project items should be discussed on a priority basis. The meeting brought together the prime minister, Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe, Foreign Minister Aso, Finance Minister Tanigaki and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Nikai. They agreed to look into the propriety of ODA with focus on not only recipient countries but also individual sectors, such as the environment and energy. During the meeting, the prime minister said, "The public is skeptical about whether ODA funds are being used efficiently or whether they are provided in such a way as to meet national interests. Since ODA is funded with tax money, it should be implemented efficiently and strategically so that it contributes to national interests. Regarding foreign visits by senior vice ministers and state secretaries of various government agencies, the prime minister noted, "I want them to pay attention to small countries so that their visits will not concentrate on specific countries or areas." It has been decided that Abe would be in charge of coordinating visits by officials from those countries. The panel was newly established in response to a proposal made by the Study Group on Overseas Economic Cooperation (chaired by former Public Prosecutor General Akio Harada),a private panel reporting to Abe. The objective of the panel is to enhance the efficiency of ODA, by reforming the current system, under which government agencies independently extend ODA. Another aim is to strategically distribute ODA funds under the initiative of Kantei or cabinet ministers. Commenting on the role of the panel, Abe told a news conference: "We have lacked a viewpoint of considering ODA from a perspective of the environment and energy. We will now consider destinations of ODA from that perspective. We will hold free discussions, by setting a theme each time. In that process, we want to map out a strategic target and strategy itself." SCHIEFFER

Share this cable

 facebook -  bluesky -